Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Video of Evy Hambro Interview on Bloomberg – April 25, 2008

Biography



Evy Hambro is a Portfolio Manager with London-based BlackRock Investment Management’s natural resources team. He manages the BlackRock World Mining fund, the MLIIF World Gold Fund, several segregated natural resource mandates for other clients and is co-fund manager for the ML Natural Resources Hedge Fund. The natural resources team is the investment manager of Global Mining Investments, an ASX-listed investment company (LIC). Merrill Lynch Investment Management owns just under half of BlackRock. The BlackRock natural resources team manages over US$40bn of assets. This includes both the largest Gold Mutual fund and the largest Mining Mutual fund. The BlackRock natural resources team has been AAA rated manager by Forsyth Partners and by S&P.

Evy Hambro was educated at Newcastle University and holds a BsC (Hons) in Marketing. Evy started in finance in 1994 by joining the SG Warburg graduate program. He joined Mercury Asset Management (a subsidiary of SG Warburg) after completing the graduate program and was part of the investment team which was acquired from Mercury Asset Management by the Investment Manager in 1994. During his time with the team, Evy has worked in London (10 years), Sydney (3 years) and Toronto.

Recently, Hambro provided his outlook for the metals and mining sector during a teleconference.

Click Here to Download the Audio Version of the Presentation (MP3 Format)

Click Here for the Presentation Slides (PDF File)

Listed below are Hambro's Top 20 investments as at 31 March 2008





Company Update on Andean Resources (AND: TSX)

On April 29th /08 Haywood Securities analyst Andrew Kaip provided an update on Andean Resources (AND: TSX)



Company Profile

Andean Resources is focused on the exploration and development of gold projects in Patagonia, Argentina. The Company's major project is its 100% owned Cerro Negro epithermal gold deposit which was acquired from MIM Limited in January 2004. The project, which is located in the southern Argentinean province of Santa Cruz, is at an elevation of approx 800m above sea level. Andean Resources is embarking on it's third drill season with a 17,000m expansion and infill drill program currently underway.

Click here to view previous coverage of Andean Resources (AND: TSX) from March 30, 2008

Event

In a note entitled “Cashed with New Eureka West Resource – Andean Sets Sights on Larger Potential at Cerro Negro” Kaip explains the reasons behind his Sector Outperform rating and target price of $2.60/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to news that Andean has just completed a $40 million bought deal, increased its Eureka West vein resource to 1.4 million ounces of gold and 23.7 million ounces of silver, Kaip writes “The recent financing establishes a solid cash position to advance Cerro Negro exploration. The updated Eureka West resource includes a 14% increase in tonnes, a 93% increase in gold and 194% increase in silver grade that highlights future resource growth.”

Kaip goes on to say “With the resource estimate confirming our thesis that Eureka West will increase in size and tenor, we continue to model 2.5 million ounces of gold and 40 million ounces of silver (5.3 million tonnes grading 14.38 g/t gold and 232 g/t silver). Our modelled reserve for Eureka West reflects 54% increase in size, a 17% increase in gold and 9% increase in silver grades above the current resource estimate.

Resource growth was driven by a combination of increased confidence through infill drilling, an eastward increase in gold and silver grades, and less onerous capping of high-grade gold and silver samples. The revised Eureka West resource released mid-April was prepared by Micon International Ltd. and was based on drilling results during the past six months. Based on the new resource estimate, additional drilling has translated into a 14% increase in tonnes, a 119% increase in gold and a 194% increase above the Q4/07 resource estimate (624,000 ounces of gold and 8 million ounces of silver) to 1.4 million ounces and 23.7 million ounces respectively. At a 3.0 g/t gold equivalent cut off, the Eureka West contains indicated resources of 2.5 million tonnes at 12.88 g/t gold and 235.3 g/t silver with 974,000 tonnes of inferred resource at 10.72 g/t gold and 156.5 g/t silver. Resource growth was driven by a 14% increase in tonnage, a 93% increase in gold and 159% increase in silver grades. The gold equivalent cut off is based on US$650 per ounce gold and a silver price of US$12.50 per ounce.

Gold and silver mineralization at Eureka west is largely restricted to well defined, subvertical quartz vein zones that are located at the contact between hanging wall andesite and footwall volcanic rocks and locally occurs within stockwork zones and brecciation in the wall rocks. With a refined understanding of the Eureka West zone, the resource estimate was separated into two distinct veins, informally named the 1.0 and 1.1 veins. The two veins are near vertical, strike in a north-westerly direction, and are closely spaced with the main Eureka West vein (1.0 Vein) hosting the bulk of the resource at higher grades. Indicated resources within the 1.0 Vein total 1.8 million tonnes at 15.79 g/t gold and 297.8 g/t silver for 916,000 ounces of gold and 17.3 million ounces of silver. 1.0 Vein grades are above those used in our valuation and support our thesis that grades will continue to improve with further delineation. The 1.1 Vein is located in the footwall of the 1.0 Vein.

The average resource grades were estimated using the ordinary kriging method with average densities determined for the two veins of 2.39 tonnes per cubic metre for the 1.0 Vein and 2.37 tonnes per cubic metre for the 1.1 Vein. The resource estimate was calculated on 58 holes, of which 40 were core drill-holes and 18 were reverse circulation holes. High grade gold and silver values for the 1.0 and 1.1 Veins grades were capped at 175, 85 or 22 g/t gold and 2,800, 1,000 and 450 g/t silver for different portions of the veins, in order not to distort the grade of the deposit with the influence of the highest grade composites. The capping cut the grades of about 1% of the composites and was derived using statistical methods and resulted in about a 3% to 8% decline in grade relative to the uncapped values. A lower cut off grade of 3 g/t gold equivalent was used. Assays were composited to regular 1 metre intervals.”

Catalysts

1) Drill Results – Q2
2) Cerro Negro prefeasibility - Q3

Valuation and Target Price

Regarding valuation, Kaip writes “We have revised our 12-month target up marginally from $2.55 to $2.60 incorporating the recent financing, and minor changes to our valuation. Our target is based on a 1.6x multiple of our after-tax corporate project NAV5% of US$704 million, or US$1.55 per share on a fully project-financed basis (see table below). We include US$80 million, or 49 million shares of project dilution at an issuance price of $1.65 per share. Andean trades at 1.0x project NAV5%, while companies in our universe trade at 0.9x (0.4x to 1.5x) project NAV5% to 10%.

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Company Update on Geologix Explorations (GIX: TSX-V)

On April 28th /08 Versant Partners analyst Ian Parkinson provided an update on Geologix Explorations (GIX: TSX-V)





Company Profile

Geologix Explorations Inc. is a mineral exploration company focused on acquiring, exploring and developing gold properties in North and South America.

Click here to view previous coverage of Geologix Explorations (GIX: TSX-V) from December 4, 2007

Event

In a note entitled “Stepping out steps up in-situ potential” Parkinson explains the reasons behind his Buy rating and target price of $4.25/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to results from Phase 3 drilling at Geologix’s San Augustin property, Parkinson writes “A number of holes show mineralization to 350m in depth. Drilling widened Zone 2 from 200-250 m to over 425 m – a doubling of widths. Highlights include: Zone 2, SA-182: 312.90 metres assaying 0.49 g/t Au, 23.12 g/t Ag, 0.15% Pb, 0.81% Zn, including 94.85 metres assaying 0.54 g/t Au, 27.15 g/t Ag, 0.23% Pb, 1.25% Zn. Zinc values are also improving, and two holes registered grades of over 1%, demonstrating that there is continuity of earlier silver and lead grades, highlighting the polymetallic potential of the deposit.”

Furthermore, Parkinson adds “Applying the new dimensions to our estimate of in-situ value, with the new width of 425m (from 300m) and depth of 350m (from 300m), we now suggest that the resource estimate is some 4.48M ounces contained gold. This compares to our March estimate of 2.7M ounces, and January estimate of 1.7M ounces.”



Lastly, Parkinson writes that “Deeper drilling is planned as the deposit remains open at depth and Phase 2 results are being analyzed for an initial resource calculation which is expected in the next few months.”

Valuation and Target Price

Comparing Geologix to Western Silver, Parkinson writes “Western Silver (100% owner of Peñasquito) was purchased by Glamis Gold in 2006 for $1.2B Cdn. At that time, the Peñasquito estimated Measured and Indicated resources were 872.5 Mt for 12.8 Moz Au, 822 Moz Ag, 2.4 Mt Pb, 5.3 Mt Zn. Effectively, the 2006 Peñasquito project was just over 4x the size of our updated estimate on San Agustin resources on an in-situ value basis. Continuing the analogy using gold equivalents, we can see that the Cdn$1.2 billion valuation of Peñasquito, translates into a per-ounce-of-gold-equivalent value of C$26.36. Taking this value and applying it against the 10.2M Au equivalent ounces at San Agustin, we get a project valuation of C$270M, which in turn translates into a C$4.64 share price for GIX. The value is much higher than today’s trading price of C$1.40, and also higher than our own target of C$4.25. Given the fact that the Peñasquito valuation occurred at a time of lower metal price environment, there is clearly unrealized value at San Agustin:”



Click here to view Haywood Securities mining analyst, Andrew Kaip opine on Geologix Explorations on BNN on April 25, 2008 (Fast Forward to the 13.00 minute mark)

My Take: In my opinion, Geologix will eventually get taken out at levels much higher than the current share price. The stock price is currently being hampered by the uncertainty surrounding the amount Geologix will have to pay Silver Standard Resources, according to an option agreement for the San Augustin property, finalized in 2006 between the 2 companies. Since the payment is due before February 2009, Geologix will most likely come to the market to raise capital in advance of that deadline. The impending financing and the general market disdain towards juniors is causing a death spiral for Geologix but this situation shall pass.

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Buy, Sell or Hold Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM: TSX)

On April 27th /08 Citigroup analyst Gil Yang provided an update on Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM: TSX)



Company Profile

Talisman is one of the largest independent oil and gas producers in Canada. The company's main business activities include exploration, development, production and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company is focused in three main production regions; North America, North Sea and Southeast Asia. The largest natural gas producing region is North America with 76% of all natural gas production. The largest oil producing region is the North Sea with 61% of overall production. Each of Talisman's current areas of operations has substantial exploration and development potential, which Talisman expects will provide for future growth.

Event

In a note entitled “Giving Substance to Strategic Changes; Raising Price Tgt to C$26” Yang explains the reasons behind his/her Buy/High Risk rating and target price of C$26.00/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Summarizing his/her thesis for Talisman, Yang writes “We believe there is value in Talisman's stock and the story is simple - Talisman has been shifting its focus to exploiting resource plays from exploration activities. The resource plays are considered low risk opportunities and can provide production stability to Talisman's portfolio – a positive as the new strategy gives clarity and confidence to the investment community in terms of the company's ability to meet its production guidance.”

Yang writes “As part of the rollout of a new strategic direction, we think Talisman could release encouraging results in the weeks to come regarding what we think will be a new focus on resource plays. We think Talisman will provide the most incremental news on the Montney formation (in British Columbia and Alberta) and the Marcellus Shale (in New York). Additionally, following Forest Oil's recent discovery in the Utica Shale, Talisman might disclose information about its position in the Utica. We expect that the company's new strategic direction will be broadly outlined at the Annual Meeting this week followed by details at the Analyst Meeting in May. We calculate that the Montney is ~8% accretive (C$2/share) to our target price and are increasing Talisman's price target to C$26 from C$24. Though we think the Utica Shale could add an incremental C$5/share in value, we are not giving Talisman credit for the shale currently because visibility on Talisman's activity in the Utica is not clear.”

Montney Formation



Yang writes “We are comfortable with the geology of the Montney and given positive results of competitors close to Talisman in the region, we think the play could add C$2/share (or 8%) to our target price and thus we are increasing it to C$26 from C$24. Talking with geologists and Talisman's competitor EnCana, we learned that the Montney Shale in British Columbia (166,650 or 1/3 of Talisman's net acreage in the Montney is in BC) has favorable thickness. Talisman's acreage appears to have similar gross pay to EnCana's (~950 feet) in the area. Additionally EnCana, much of whose core acreage is nearby Talisman's, has produced positive results. EnCana reported encouraging IP's of 5-10 Mmcf/d, well costs in the $6-$8 million range and is now producing 120 mmcf/d (reached this level within 2-3 years of starting work in the play). With the Montney formation's favorable geology and EnCana's strong production in the area close to Talisman's, we feel optimistic about Talisman's prospects in the region. Talisman's drilling has been more advanced than we expected and we view this as a positive. We now believe that Talisman is drilling a 20 well pilot program and intends to continue drilling more. According to Talisman, the 20 wells were a mix of horizontals and verticals and further details could be announced at the company's Analyst Meeting.”

Utica Shale

Regarding Talisman’s Utica prospects, Yang writes “Talisman drilled 2 vertical wells (in 2006) into the Trenton Black River and saw encouraging results in the Utica. We think that Talisman is currently evaluating the initiation of a pilot program and details could be announced at the Annual Meeting. The Utica Shale has come in the lime light with encouraging results produced by Forest Oil recently. Though the Utica Shale could potentially add ~C$5/share to the Talisman's target price, details on Talisman's work in the Utica are not available. Thus we are not adding the Utica Shale value to the company's target price. Nonetheless we thought it would be interesting to see what the shale could be worth to Talisman and came up with the analysis below."



The Marcellus – Competitors See Strong IPs

Yang writes “We think Talisman could have positive information about pilot projects and production levels in the Marcellus Shale at its analyst meeting. The Trenton Black River (TBR) play in Talisman's portfolio targets a deeper interval in New York State; with the Marcellus above the TBR formation, the company should have more information on the up-hole zones. IP's on horizontals for competitors have ranged from 2-6 Mmcf/d in North-West Pennsylvania where thickness of the Marcellus is 3,500-6,500 ft. Additionally based on current activities in the TBR we see that at least some of Talisman's leases lie in New York State close to the New York/Pennsylvania border where shale thickness ranges from 3,000-5,000 ft. As Talisman's thickness is similar to its competitors and Talisman has acreage near its competitors, we believe strong IP's reported by competitors bodes positively for Talisman as well.”

Valuation and Target Price

With regards to valuation, Yang writes “We believe that Talisman’s upcoming strategy update will be a near term catalyst for the stock. In addition, if the new strategy has any success, we expect to see TLM shares escape from the doldrums of the past 2 years. We expect that the changes will take the company in a significant new direction. We believe under the new strategy the company will use its existing asset base as a platform to explore for new resource plays. This strategy provides a low risk opportunity, with minimal capital outlays and the benefit of much HBP leasehold giving flexibility to drilling schedule. Additionally this strategy could provide stability to Talisman's production profile as well.

Our C$26 price target is based on our NPV-based valuation methodology, which incorporates the company's entire production profile slate as well as reinvestment value, as opposed to one year of cash flows. We derive valuation based on the historical relationship between commodity prices and a company's NPV10 per BOE (assumes 10% discount rate, just like the standardized measure per BOE). We then use the company's regression equation to determine, at our assumed flat price deck of $75/bbl oil and $7.50/Mcf natural gas, the company's NPV10/BOE. We then adjust for the valuation difference between using 10% (used in the standardized measure calculations) and 7% (our estimate of the appropriate sector discount rate) to estimate the company's NPV7/BOE). For Talisman, we calculate this value at about C$13.50/BOE. However, this only incorporates the company's proved reserves. Our target price is driven by a premium of 70%, accounting for additional unbooked resource potential activity. Given the company's 2007 total proved reserves of 1,348 MMBOE, we calculate an enterprise value of about C$31.02 billion, and after accounting for net debt (C$4.34 billion) based on 1,039 million diluted shares, we calculate an equity value of about C$26/share.”

My Take: The weekly and daily RSI-7 values are at 62.01 and 52.05 and indicate that there is still further upside momentum left in the stock. The MACD and Stochastics (slow) currently indicate waning momentum and perhaps even an intermediate downtrend. However, given the upcoming strategy update that could potentially act as a catalyst for the stock, I might consider picking up a few shares amidst this weakness in the share price. Additionally, since Talisman usually declares a dividend around the end of May, the month of May has a seasonally strong period for Talisman in the years 2004, 2005 and 2007. Furthermore, in the last month, price action in Talisman has outperformed its competitor, natural gas giant Encana (ECA: NYSE). Hence, for traders, Talisman Energy might be a good candidate for a swing trade for the next few weeks. However, everyone should do their own due diligence before initiating any trades.

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

If you like this post, please take a moment to suscribe to my feed or Stumble/Digg it using the appropriate links at the bottom of this post! You can also post a link to it on relevant forums/bullboards. Also, feel free to debate, discuss or comment on the any of the stocks you see on this page in the comments section.

Sector Outlook: Uranium Equities - Cameco, Paladin, Aurora Energy, Ur-Energy, First Uranium

“… the uranium spot price is not necessarily the best indicator of the state of the uranium market since the spot market is thin and illiquid and we think that it is prone to skewed movements caused by large, irregular transactions. The long-term price is also an imperfect metric since it is only applicable to a narrow portion of U3O8 contract sales. However, we believe that the real clearing price for the market lies somewhere in between the currently-quoted spot and long-term prices. In our view, if all material were to be sold on the spot market today, an equilibrium price would likely be in the $85-$100 per pound range given the demand-supply fundamentals and the ever-increasing cost of new mine production.”



On April 28th /08 RBC Capital Markets analysts Adam Schatzker and H. Fraser Phillips wrote up a report entitled “Finding Value in the Uranium Equities.”

Takeaways From The Report

Commenting on the dramatic decline in the spot price of Uranium and Uranium equities in the last year, Schatzker and Phillips write “From the highs in June 2007 to the lows of April 2008, we have seen both the uranium price and the equities fall by approximately 41% and 52%, respectively.” Schatzker and Phillips believe that the depreciation in the spot price of Uranium recently has been a result of 2 reasons: 1) Intensive selling pressure, especially from a trader; and 2) Lack of necessity buying in the spot market (82% of Q1/08 spot purchasing was discretionary, according to Ux Consulting). Overall, they think that “The buying in Q1/08 was considered to be evenly split between traders, producers, utilities and speculators.”



So how relevant is the current spot price of Uranium to valuations of equities in the Uranium sector?

Schatzker and Phillips begin by dividing uranium producers into 2 groups:

1) Large, existing producers such as Cameco, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and AREVA that are publicly-traded; and
2) New producers such as Uranium One and Paladin Energy.

They then go on to write “The existing contract baskets and future contracts (to be established) are very different for these two groups.” For example, according the “recent filings, Cameco has sold about 60% of its future production under contracts that will reference future spot and long-term pricing; the other 40% is sold at base-escalated prices with inflation factors. Therefore, Cameco's exposure to the future spot price is limited to perhaps 30% of its volumes.” On the other hand, “Uranium One has sold most of its contracts using market-related terms that will reference the spot price at the time of delivery. In addition, the company has more uranium uncommitted to contracts than uncommitted material. Therefore, depending on how it establishes its future contacts, Uranium One may have substantial exposure to the future spot price. However, we expect that future contracts will likely have some component of fixed economics and perhaps some contracts will reference the long-term price in addition to the spot price. Other producers, such as Paladin Energy, are in a position similar to Uranium One while companies in earlier stages of development such as Aurora Energy Resources, Uranium Energy Corp. and Ur-Energy have no signed contracts as of yet.”

So what’s the deal with the Long Term Price of Uranium?

Schatzker and Phillips opine “It has been an anomaly to many market watchers as it (the long term price of uranium) has remained unchanged at $95 per pound U3O8 since May 2007; the long-term price did not increase with the spot price in the spring/summer of 2007, nor is it trending down now that the spot price has decreased to the mid-$60 per pound range. Market insiders believe the long-term price is a better gauge of the perceived longer-term supply-demand imbalance and that it, in some ways, is a better indicator of market sentiment than the spot price. Transactions at the spot price only account for about
10% of annual U3O8 demand. However, in our opinion, no company can sell all its U3O8 material at the long-term price since no utility or buyer is willing to fix at such a perceived "high" price for longer-term supplies. When the spot price was high, both buyers and sellers were more willing to enter into spot market-related contracts, but for the exact opposite outlook on spot U3O8 prices: sellers thought the price would continue higher and buyers thought the price would fall.”



Will the Spot and Long-Term Converge? And if so, how?

Schatzker and Phillips write “Market watchers may wonder why there is a $30 per pound gap between the spot and long-term price and why arbitrage has not reduced the difference. We believe the gap is explained by the differing nature of the two prices and illiquidity in the spot market. Spot is being driven lower by strong selling and weak, discretionary-based buying, while the long-term price is a negotiated price that does not affect a large portion of the material. We think the long-term price will track the movement of the spot price over the longer term, but, in the near-term, the market appears to be in equilibrium at $95 per pound. We still believe the spot price will rebound and approach the long-term price in the next 6 to 12 months.”

Timing Difference between New supply and New demand?

“New supply has already come to the market and more is expected - permitting delays for mines can be long, but no longer than delays for approving new nuclear plants. We have yet to see new builds for nuclear plants given the green light in Canada, the U.S. or most of Europe; however, we believe that approvals will eventually be forthcoming and we believe that the demand for these new reactors will affect the uranium market outlook long before these new reactor plants start producing.”

Conclusion

Schatzker and Phillips believe “the uranium spot price is not necessarily the best indicator of the state of the uranium market since the spot market is thin and illiquid and we think that it is prone to skewed movements caused by large, irregular transactions. The long-term price is also an imperfect metric since it is only applicable to a narrow portion of U3O8 contract sales. However, we believe that the real clearing price for the market lies somewhere in between the currently-quoted spot and long-term prices. In our view, if all material were to be sold on the spot market today, an equilibrium price would likely be in the $85-$100 per pound range given the demand-supply fundamentals and the ever-increasing cost of new mine production.”

Valuation and Target Prices

With regards to the valuations of Uranium equities, Schatzker and Phillips write “While the equities have overall come down mostly in line with the uranium price, we think some have come down too much, while others are relatively over-valued. The equities we believe to be fully or over-valued in the current market are also implying uranium prices substantially higher than their peers. Further, the uranium prices implied by the share prices of the companies we feel are overvalued are also much higher than the current spot price of uranium.

For exposure to near-term appreciation of the uranium price, we continue to recommend Cameco. For longer-term exposure to the uranium market, our preferred equities are: First Uranium, Aurora Energy and Ur-Energy.”

PRODUCERS

Cameco Corp. (US$44.58/lb U3O8)

TSX-CCO: $36.36, Outperform, Above Average Risk, 12-Month Target Price: C$49.00

"Cameco is trading at an implied price that falls toward the lower end of the group. We believe that Cameco will likely continue to be the best name among uranium producers, especially since the water-related risks at Cigar Lake have been reduced recently and it has a top-tier asset base that is in production. Cameco’s contract structure should provide the company with increasing uranium price realizations over the next decade.

Paladin Energy Ltd. (US$90.00/lb U3O8)

ASX-PDN: A$4.10, Sector Perform, Above Average Risk, 12-Month Target Price: A$5.00

We believe the market is currently attributing substantial value for Paladin's exploration and development projects including Valhalla/Skal (a project we have modeled using a DCF method). We think this is because Paladin continues to be a "go to" name in the uranium space, but its valuation stands out from the pack on the high end: the current share price is discounting 2.2 times our estimated NAV. We think that Paladin’s management has set the bar quite high with new guidance, especially for Phase III at Langer Heinrich, and that this increases the company’s execution risk.

Uranium One Inc. (US$69.35/lb U3O8)

TSX-UUU: C$4.87, Sector Perform, Speculative Risk, 12-Month Target Price: C$4.00

Uranium One has traded up sharply from its recent low of C$3.04 as we believe investors are looking to buy based on the notion that it was oversold. However, its recent climb toward $4.90 reflect, in our view, a full valuation. We continue to believe that there are still many risks to the company’s assets, in particular its Dominion mine (performance risk) and the Kazakh assets (political risk). Uranium One is currently trading at 1.2 times our NAV estimate and with P/E multiples that are well above its peers.

DEVELOPERS

First Uranium Corp. (-US$3.27/lb U3O8)

TSX-FIU: C$6.32, Outperform, Above Average Risk, 12-Month Target Price: C$11.25

First Uranium is primarily a gold company and is trading well below our estimated NAV of $13.14. We are not surprised that it is trading at a negative implied uranium price given our view that the stock is trading as a “cheap” gold company with “free” uranium exposure. We think that the successful execution of the company’s near-term milestones, including the start of operations at the Ezulwini mine this month for gold and June 2008 for uranium should provide positive catalysts for the shares. The shares are currently
discounting a flat $630/oz gold price. We expect First Uranium will be able to execute its business plan with less risk than its peers given the extensive and conservative engineering work that has been carried out. At its current share price its is trading at 0.5 times our estimated NAV and has forward P/E multiples that are the lowest in its peer group (for 2010E to 2012E).

Ur-Energy Inc. (US$44.66/lb U3O8)

TSX-URE: C$1.64, Outperform, Above Average Risk, 12-Month Target Price: C$3.50

Ur-Energy is discounting approximately $45 per pound at its current share price level, a value that has fallen over time, much like its peers. Ur-Energy is well cashed up and we continue to believe it is a potential takeover target.

Uranium Energy Corp. (US$51.42/lb U3O8)

AMEX-UEC: C$2.38, Sector Perform, Speculative Risk, 12-Month Target Price: C$4.25
Uranium Energy is, like Ur-Energy, developing a US-based ISR uranium mine (this one in Texas, Ur-Energy in Wyoming). The difference, in our opinion, is that Uranium Energy will likely face significant opposition to its plans that will delay production and it will need to raise equity in the near-term.

EXPLORERS

Aurora Energy Resources Inc. ($44.47/lb U3O8)

TSX-AXU: C$3.64, Outperform, Speculative Risk, 12-Month Target Price: C$8.00

Aurora’s current share price is discounting a constant uranium price that is not much lower than some of its peers; however, given the leverage to higher uranium prices that we estimate the company has (e.g. for each US$5 per pound change in realized uranium prices, our NAV estimate increases by $0.80 per share), relatively small changes to the long-term uranium price drive large changes to Aurora’s NAV. Our long-term uranium price is US$45 per pound; but, we assume that Aurora will contract the early years of its production at prices closer to US$80 per pound.

Berkeley Resources Ltd. ($52.18/lb U3O8)

ASX-BKY: A$0.80 Outperform, Speculative Risk, 12-Month Target Price: A$1.50

Berkeley is actually receiving a slight premium to its exploration/development peers. We believe that is likely due to the perceived option value that is embedded into the share price relating to the potential outcome of ongoing negotiations with the Spanish government and to reflect the value of its other, active, exploration projects in Spain.

Conclusion

Based on the information presented above, we think that some of the equities are trading at fairly high levels (e.g. Uranium One and Paladin) and that this premium may come down. However, both Uranium One and Paladin are “the” growth companies in the uranium industry and investors have tended to flock to them when they put money into this industry.”

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Monday, April 28, 2008

Buy, Sell or Hold General Moly Inc. (GMO: TSX)


On April 25th /08 Wellington West Capital analyst Catherine Gignac provided an update on General Moly Inc. (GMO: TSX)



Company Profile

General Moly Inc. is a U.S. molybdenum mining company focused on the development of the Mt. Hope (80%) molybdenum project in Nevada. Strategic alliances with major steel companies are being secured during this permitting and financing stage. Production is targeted for late 2010 at an average life of mine rate of 38 million pounds molybdenum per year. A pre-feasibility study for the Hall-Tonopah molybdenum project in Nevada is pending.



Event

In a note entitled “Two Development and Evaluation-Stage Primary Molybdenum Projects in Nevada” Gignac explains the reasons behind her Buy rating and target price of $13.00/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Gignac writes “General Moly is an emerging molybdenum producer in mining friendly Nevada. The Mount Hope Project is one of the world’s largest and highest grade molybdenum deposits. Total annual output is forecast at 38 M lbs/year with a targeted start-up in late 2010. Senior alliances include ArcelorMittal and Korean steel maker POSCO, adding third party credibility as well as helping to reduce financing risk.”

With regards to the Hall-Tonopah project, Gignac writes “Assays from 14 of the 19 Phase II holes received to-date compared well with previous grades from 0.08% to 0.11% molybdenum. Exhibit 1 shows a vertical cross-section through the deposit with superimposed traces of four holes (LM-792, LM-793, LM-827, LM-829). Intersections up to 1,098 ft grading 0.214% molybdenum (LM-792) confirm continuity of the mineralization. The 19 infill holes totaling 25,405 feet initiated in September 2007 were spaced at 100ft to 150ft. To-date, 71 diamond drill holes have been completed. Anaconda and Cyprus Minerals mined the Hall-Tonopah deposit by open pit from 1982-1991, producing approximately 50 million tons grading 0.11% molybdenum (110 M lb). General Moly estimates the companies left 150 million tons of material at about 0.10% or 300 M lbs in-situ. Based on historical compilation and drilling to November 2007, management estimated mineralization totaled 433 million tons grading 0.071% molybdenum. The pre-feasibility study is expected April 29th, and should include a resource estimate as well as preliminary mine economics.”

The Mount Hope project which General Moly owns 80% of, contains 1.3 billion pounds of Proven and Probable reserves. Implementation of the feasibility study schedule and controlling the capital budget is expected to be challenging, as it is with all industry players, especially in the current climate of rising costs of commodity-based construction components. Two shovels have been ordered with delivery planned for May and October 2009. A gyratory crusher, SAG and ball mills were ordered in October 2007 with anticipated delivery in Q4/09. Receipt of all major regulatory permits is expected by Q1/09 in order to commence construction for a production start-up in late 2010. All water rights sufficient for full production were received in January. The company submitted an application for an air quality permit in Q3/07 and the water pollution control permit is on schedule to be submitted by Q1/08. Environmental studies were started in 2005 and a draft Environmental Impact Statement is anticipated shortly. This marks the start of a one-year public comment period. Permitting the proposed 46 M lbs/year molybdenum roaster in Nevada is anticipated to be a hurdle for the company. However, management comments that SO2 emission levels from the proposed roaster of 70-75 tons per year, are amongst the lowest emission levels of comparable roasters in Nevada.”

Commenting on General Moly’s strategic relationships, Gignac writes “Demand for
the projected molybdenum production from the Mount Hope mine is high. The world’s largest steel producer, ArcelorMittal S.A., signed an offtake agreement for approximately 6.5 million lb/yr of future production and separately acquired 8,257,000 shares of General Moly for $8.50/share ($70.2 million) in November 2007. Coghill Capital Management received a one-year “finder’s fee warrant” to purchase one million General Moly shares at $10.00/share, exercisable once production financing for the project is secured. The third largest steel producer, POSCO, acquired a 20% interest in the Mount Hope Project for $170 million, payable in three installments.”

Laslty, concerning the company’s management, Gignac writes “Two new independent directors were added earlier this year adding mining, processing, marketing and global business experience to the board. The management team was created last year and includes environmental, financial, investor relations, project development, business development, marketing, engineering and construction – all critical positions required for a major industrial project such as Mount Hope. The EPCM contract was awarded to M3 Engineering in January 2008 and the project team to-date covers mining, engineering, processing, metallurgy, maintenance, electrical design, and instrumentation and controls – quite a feat to achieve in today’s competitive industry.”

Valuation and Target Price

With regards to valuation, Gignac writes “The POSCO transaction valued Mount Hope at
$850 million, giving a market value of $680 million or $8.22 per diluted share for General Moly’s interest. This compares to the NPV from the feasibility study of $1.75 billion or $16.93 per diluted share for General Moly’s 80% interest. This is 87% higher than the current share price and excludes any value for the Hall-Tonopah Project. The Hall-Tonopah Project pre-feasibility study is expected to be released shortly with a management conference call planned on April 29th.

The total net present value at a 10% discount rate is $1.32 billion or $12.73 per diluted share (after financing). About 90% of the value is from the Mount Hope Project ($11.47/share) and $126 million or $1.22 per diluted share is currently attributed to the Hall-Tonopah Project. There is good leverage to molybdenum with a 16% change in the NPV on a 10% change in our price forecasts. Our target is based on the NAV with no premium at this stage, but we believe this could change as production nears. Post warrant exercise, cash now totals about $123 million. The shares are recommended as Buy with a target price of $13.00 per share."

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Buy, Sell or Hold Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT: TSX)

On April 24th /08 Citigroup analyst Brian Yu provided an update on Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT: TSX)



Company Profile

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. is the largest fertilizer company by capacity and second largest by production. Looking at the three basic fertilizers, the company ranks first in potash production with annual production of 9 million tones, third in phosphate with 2.4 million tonnes of phosphoric acid capacity, and fourth in nitrogen with 4.1 million tonnes ammonia capacity. In 2007E, POT will derive 34% of revenues from nitrogen sales, 35% of revenues from potash, and 31% from phosphate. However, profitability is primarily driven by potash sales as reflected by this segments 53% contribution to companywide gross profits while nitrogen is a distant second at 32% contribution. The company operates under three segments, Potash, Phosphate and Nitrogen. In the Potash segment, key mines are located in southern Saskatchewan with Rocanville, Lanigan and Allan producing almost 70% of total potash output and containing 77% of reserves. Sales to North America account for 72% of annual revenues.

Event

In a note entitled “1Q08 – Strong Results and Guidance Overtaken by Macro Headlines, Reiterate Buy” Yu explains the reasons behind his Buy/High Risk rating and target price of $243.00/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to Potash Corporation’s first quarter results, Yu writes “POT reported 1Q operating EPS of $1.56 compared to our estimate of $1.61 and Street of $1.50. GAAP EPS of $1.74 reflected a number of one-time items such as a tax gain ($0.13), equity gains associated with the purchase of additional Sinofert shares ($0.08), non-cash currency translation gain ($0.06) and write-off of auction rate securities (-$0.09). The earnings shortfall relative to our number was due to lower profitability in nitrogen and phosphate while potash came in ahead. The company raised 2008 guidance to $9.50-$10.50 from $6.25-$7.25, expecting potash profitability of at least ~$3.2 bln and combined nitrogen and phosphate profitability of over $1.8 bln. Our estimates are higher at $3.4 bln for potash, $0.7 bln for nitrogen, and $1.4 bln for phosphate. Currently, the Street estimate for 2008 is a low $8.70 vs our prior estimate of $10.78. Typically, POT provides conservative guidance. For 2Q, the company expects to generate earnings of $2.20-$2.50 vs the Street of $2.25.”

Analyzing Potash Corp.’s results, Yu writes “Potash gross profit of $515 mln beat our estimate of $407 mln due to better pricing. Unit costs did increase by $8/tonne QoQ due to ramp-up efforts associated with the 1.5 mln tonne expansion at Lanigan. POT expects potash prices to increase by 30% QoQ in 2Q to ~$370. Phosphate gross profit of $156 mln was lower than our estimate of $209 mln due to lower than expected pricing of liquid fertilizer products and volumes. However, the recent 251% phos acid price increase should flow through in 2Q. As well, the company is raising feed prices to over $1,100/tonne by May 1st. Volumes declined YoY due to weather related planting delays. Nitrogen gross profits $185 mln were below our estimate of $206 mln due to higher natural gas cost of $6.72/MMBtu (vs $6.39 est) and lower volumes. Volumes were weaker YoY due to weather related planting delays that likely pushes sales into 2Q.”

Furthermore, Yu adds “Management believes in a measured approach to raising prices and cautioned against rapid-fire, supersized price hikes that have the potential to alienate customers over the long run. $1,000/tonne potash may be in the works for late 3Q or 4Q, but the company appears content thus far to let customers digest the $750/tonne price level taking effect on June 1st. North American potash producers are running flat out and POT expects to ship 10.1-10.2 mln tonnes in 2008 compared to 9.4 mln tonnes in 2007. Product that has been allocated to Canpotex (the Saskatchewan export association comprised of POT, MOS and AGU) has already been committed to various international customers with open pricing.”

Valuation and Target Price

With regards to valuation, Yu writes “We rate POT Buy/High-Risk (1H) based upon its leverage to tight potash markets, multiple potash expansion opportunities, and diversification in phosphates away from fertilizer markets. Our positive industry thesis is driven by expectations for a continued decline in global grain inventory through 2009/10, which we believe provides a good leading indicator of higher fertilizer demand and grain prices (important for the farmer who buys fertilizers). Stemming from the company s extensive educational efforts, we believe the overarching positive short and medium-term outlook for potash markets is largely understood by the investment community.”

Yu’s $243/sh target is based on Price-to-Forward-Earnings (P/E). He writes “Our P/E approach to valuing POT disaggregates the value of its “core” business earnings and the market value of its various equity investments, valued at $26.45 per POT share. In arriving at a “core” earnings estimate of $18.04, we strip-out the expected earnings contribution from the various equity investments worth $0.52. While our above-consensus estimates for 2008-09 likely reflect peak-type earnings, resilient sector multiples prompts us to apply a target multiple of 12.0x on our 2009E "core" earnings to arrive at a value of $216. Including the $21.45/sh market value of its various equity investments yields a target price of $243.”

Lastly, commenting on the 10% haircut, the shares of Potash Corp. took leading up to and immediately after reporting their 1Q results, Yu writes “In our opinion, the 10% sell-off in POT shares over the past few days has little to do with industry fundamentals and is primarily driven by macro factors with a stronger US dollar leading to weaker exchange-traded commodity prices and hitting resource producers such as POT. We have observed similar macro-driven sell-offs in the past (Aug-07, Nov-07, Jan-08 and Mar-08) and each correction has proven temporary and presented good buying opportunities in hindsight. With food inflation concerns mounting and micro indicators suggesting that potash, phosphate and nitrogen (specifically urea) prices are likely to head higher, we remain buyers of POT.”

My Take: The weekly and daily RSI-7 values are at 81.74 and 63.69 and proclaim an overbought - Sell signal. Additionally, the MACD and Stochastics (slow) also indicate overbought conditions for the stock. In the short term, traders and momentum players might scalp a few percentage points but Potash Corp. might be due for a short term correction. Additionally, contrarians might point to the plethora of newspapers and media increasing coverage of food shortages and rationing in different parts of the world (See Reference: Rice and Wrong: Food Costs Flummox), as an indication of a short term top in equity prices of agricultural commodities. However, since a significant correction might never materialize, I might initiate a third of a position at current prices and then add at either higher or lower prices depending on one’s trading styles (believe it or not but some traders do add to their positions when a stock is moving higher). Given the rosy outlook for the agricultural sector around the world, in the longer term (2-3 years) Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan is a Buy (See Reference: Don Coxe's (Chief Strategist of BMO Harris Investment Management) Weekly Conference Call ).

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Saturday, April 26, 2008

Private Placement – Romarco Minerals (R: TSX-V)

Official Website: http://www.romarco.com/main.asp?section=corporate&page=home



Company Profile

Romarco Minerals Inc. is a gold development company focused on production in the US and Mexico. The Company's flagship project is the Haile Gold Mine in South Carolina which is currently undergoing a bankable feasibility study and exploration. The Pinos Gold District in Mexico is a high grade epithermal vein district in the advanced exploration stage. The Company also has two gold exploration projects in Nevada.

Event

On April 25th, 2008 – the TSX Venture Exchange Daily Bulletin reported that the TSX Venture Exchange had accepted for filing documentation with respect to a Non-Brokered Private Placement February 21, 2008 by Romarco Minerals.

Details of the Private Placement

Number of shares: 27,580,246 shares
Warrants: 27,580,246 share purchase warrants to purchase 27,580,246 shares
Number of Placees: 23 placees
Purchase Price: $0.17 per share

Private Placement Participants

Sun Valley Gold Master Fund, Ltd. for 11,472,500 shares

Edward A. Van Ginkel for 300,000 shares (Director with Romarco Minerals)

Kenneth A. Brunk for 60,000 shares (Feasibility Consultant with Romarco Minerals)

Patrick Michaels for 100,000 shares (Director with Romarco Minerals)

Robert Van Doorn for 150,000 shares (Director with Romarco Minerals)

Sprott Asset Management Inc. for 2,941,200 shares (See Below)

Terry L. Turner for 60,000 shares (Haile Operations Manager with Romarco Minerals)

Thomas R. Kilbey for 30,000 shares (Senior Geologist with Romarco Minerals)

David C. Beling for 100,000 shares (Director with Romarco Minerals)

About Sun Valley Gold LLC

Sun Valley is a US-registered investment advisory firm which specializes in precious metals investment management and advisory services to institutional, professional, and private investors. Sun Valley utilizes a proprietary global database and state of the art warrant-based analytics to evaluate precious metals and mining opportunities. Prior to founding Sun Valley , Mr. Palmedo worked for Morgan Stanley & Co in New York from 1981 to 1989 where he was a Principal of the firm. His area of concentration included equity portfolio risk management , derivatives and the development and analysis of listed , long-dated , synthetic and imbedded options.
For further information: Peter Palmedo, President, Sun Valley Gold LLC at (208) 726-2327

About Sprott Asset Manaegement

Founded in 2000 by Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management manages about $7 billion in assets. The company manages 6 mutual funds and 7 hedge funds. The company has been phenomenally successful in picking investment themes long before the broader markets capitalize on them. For example, “Sprott was buying gold back in 2000, when it traded below $300 (U.S.) per ounce, he took a shine to uranium in 2003, on the cusp of a gradual 10-fold price increase and lately, his search for the next big score has led him to stocks in commodities like molybdenum, phosphates and silicon” - Globe Investor article

Sprott Asset Management has been involved in the junior resource markets for a long time and are perhaps the most active investors in that markets. The mere mention of a private placement with Sprott can dramatically impact the share prices of some of these stocks. Take it for what its worth but I think the guys at Sprott (Eric, Peter Hodson, Jean-Francois Tardif, Allan Jacobs, Peter Imhof and John Embry) are some of the smartest money managers in Canada and their knowledge of the junior resource market is unparalleled.

About Edward A. Van Ginkel

Mr. Van Ginkel holds a law degree from the Osgoode Hall Law School in Canada and his career spans 22 years in the mining and metals industry, focused primarily on corporate development and exploration transactions and in financing and developing major mines in Canada and throughout the world. Most recently, Mr. Van Ginkel served as Vice President, General Counsel for Noranda Inc., where he had primary legal responsibility for the affairs of Canada’s largest mining and metallurgical company and, subsequently, as Vice President, International Projects in Noranda’s corporate development and exploration group, where he assumed senior responsibility for most of the company’s international transactions. Prior to that Mr. Van Ginkel worked for three years as Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary for Dayton Mining Corporation and for twelve years with Rio Algom Limited.

About Kenneth A. Brunk (Feasibility Consultant)

Mr. Brunk is a metallurgical engineer responsible for the successful completion of the bankable feasibility study at Haile. Mr. Brunk was recently CEO of Harrison Western Group which provided enginnering services, process technology, mining and construction services to the mining industry. He had a long tenure with Newmont Mining as Sr. Technical Officer responsible for all the technical functions of the operating, exploration and engineering groups within Newmont. He was responsible for the process design of the $2 billion dollar,120,000 ton per day Batu Hijua copper/gold concentrator. Mr. Brunk was also with Bateman Engineering as VP responsible for completing feasibility studies for gold ore treatment worldwide.

About Patrick Michaels

Mr. Michaels is an investment adviser to Zuri-Invest AG, a company specializing in wealth management for high net worth individuals. Additionally, Mr. Michaels is Managing Director of Asty Capital AG, a Swiss investment company focused on the mining sector. Mr. Michaels has extensive experience in the fields of mining finance, fund management and asset allocation. Mr. Michaels has a background in law and economics, and did his training in the areas of private banking and investment research at UBS in Zurich. Additionally, he attended postgraduate courses at the Colorado School of Mines in Denver, Colorado.

About Robert Van Doorn

Mr. van Doorn (M.Sc. Mining Engineering, MBA) is Executive Vice President - Business Development for Rio Narcea Gold Mines Ltd. Prior thereto, Mr. van Doorn was a mining consultant and was a mining specialist at Loewen, Ondaatje, McCutcheon ("LOM") from 1993-1995 and from 1997 to 2002. From 1995 to 1997, Mr. van Doorn was the global gold analyst at Morgan Stanley & Co. in New York. He has more than 20 years of experience in the mining industry, including 3½ years in the business development group of Billiton International Metals.

About Terry L. Turner

Mr. Turner has been with the Haile Gold Mine sicne 1988. From 1988 - 1992, under ownership of Piedmont Mining, he was responsible for the crushing, agglomerating, gold recovery and shipping operations at Haile. Working under the ownership of Amax Gold and Kinross Gold (1992-1998 and 1998-2007, respectively) he was responsible for the closure design development, closure construction, regulatory permitting and negotiations.

About Thomas R. Kilbey

Mr. Kilbey (B.S., M.S. Geological Sciences) is Senior Geologist for Romarco Minerals Inc. and brings over 20 years of grassroots, mine, and project development exploration experience from all over the western United States and Carolina Slate Belt. Prior to Romarco, Mr. Kilbey has explored for gold, silver, and copper for major mining companies, which includes being district geologist for Newcrest Resources, Inc. (2001-2006), contract geologist for AngloGold (2000-2001), North Mining (1999) and Newcrest (1998-1999), senior geologist for Cyprus (1995-1998), geologist for Haile Mining [subsid. Amax Gold] (1992-1994). His time in Nevada began with Amax Gold (1989-1992). Much of his major company experience includes developing and prospecting sediment hosted, skarn, porhyry gold and copper deposits along with epithermal gold vein systems and bulk mineable gold-silver resources.

About David C. Beling

Mr. Beling (P.E., B.Sc. Mining Engineering) is Senior Vice-President of Geovic Ltd. Mr. Beling has over 30 years experience as a Corporate Executive, Director and General Manager. During 1997 - 2004, Mr. Beling provided independent corporate and general management, project evaluation and strategic planning services to several international mining companies. Prior to 1997, Mr. Beling was President and General Manager of AZCO Mining Inc. and the Senior Vice President of Hycroft Resources and Development Inc.

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Friday, April 25, 2008

Private Placement – Dorato Resources (DRI.H: TSX-V)

Official Website: http://www.doratoresources.com/



Company Profile

Dorato Resources Inc. is an exploration mining company focused on the highly prospective Cordillera del Condor Gold District in Peru along the Equador border. Dorato has entered agreements to acquire a 100% interest in a large land package (64 mineral claims) covering approximately 55 kilometres by 10 kilometres. Recent exploration on the Ecuadorian side of the border has been highly successful and includes a number of gold and copper discoveries. Key features of the Dorato land package include shared geology, structural setting, proximity, extensions of known trends and numerous placer gold occurrences. Dorato has acquired first mover status with its strategic land package that has successfully locked in a significant portion of this exciting emergent gold-copper district. Completion of the acquisition is subject to TSX-V and shareholder approval. Dorato is well funded, possesses experienced management with a proven track record and has excellent relationships with the local community.

Event

On April 24th, 2008 – the TSX Venture Exchange Daily Bulletin reported that the TSX Venture Exchange had accepted for filing documentation with respect to a Non-Brokered Private Placement announced November 19, 2007, December 19, 2007, January 22, 2008, February 22, 2008 and March 28, 2008 by Dorato Resources.

Details of the Private Placement

Number of shares: 17,000,000 shares
Number of Placees: 160 placees
Purchase Price: $0.60 per share

Private Placement Participants

Gary Bogdanovich for 285,000 shares (Investment Advisor at Haywood Securities)

Anton J. Drescher for 550,000 shares (CEO and President of Dorato Resources)

Lorinda Hoyem for 50,000 shares (Investment Advisor with Blackmont Capital)

Carolyn Rogers for 150,000 shares

Kim Dunfield for 300,000 shares

Cheryl Currie for 75,000 shares (I’m SPECULATING here but Cheryl might be related to Graeme Currie, ex (since 1983) mining analyst with Canaccord Capital and currently Senior Vice President of Investment Banking with Canaccord)

Neville Dastoor for 10,000 shares (MBA, PEng. - Used to be an Associate Analyst focusing on Metals and Mining at Canaccord Capital until 2006 - I can’t find any recent information on him)

Matthew Gaasenbeek for 50,000 shares (Head of Capital Markets, North America at Canaccord Capital)

Rowland Perkins for 10,000 shares (Director and Member of Audit Committee of Dorato Resources)

Sandra Nissen for 50,000 shares

Ali Pejman (Managing Director of Investment Banking at Canaccord Capital) 125,000

Kirsten Pejman for 100,000 shares (Probably related to Ali Pejman – See Above)

Graham Saunders for 35,000 shares (Head of Canadian Institutional Sales at Canaccord Capital)

Wendell Zerb for 40,000 shares (Senior Analyst Metals and Mining Analyst at Canaccord Capital)

0811321 B.C. Ltd. (Dino Minicucci/Cal Everett) for 365,000 shares (Dino is an Investment Advisor with PI Financial Canada and Cal is in Institutional Sales at PI Financial US)

Gerhard Drescher for 12,000 shares (Director of Dorato Resources)

Donna Moroney for 15,000 shares (Corporate Secretary and CFO of Dorato Resources)

Craig Roberts for 185,000 shares

Linda Yule for 100,000 shares (Senior Investment Advisor with GMP Private Client)

About Matthew Gaasenbeek

Matt has over 15 years experience in the securities and financial services business. He has been instrumental in building the North American Capital Markets team, where he has advised on over $15 billion and been involved in over 12,500 transactions. Prior to joining the firm, he was a management consultant of Price Waterhouse. Matt holds an MBA from the Ivey School of Business.

About Graham Saunders

Graham Saunders has been with Canaccord Adams since 1996 and was appointed Head of Canadian Institutional Sales in September 2007. Prior, he worked as a Credit Analyst with Burns, Fry Ltd. and a Financial Analyst with Integra Capital. Graham earned a BBA in Finance from Bishops University.

About Ali Pejman

Ali Pejman has been with Canaccord since April 2000. His experience includes the completion of numerous junior mining equity financings and advisory services for numerous junior resource companies. Mr. Pejman sits on the BC Securities Commissions, Securities Policy Advisory Committee and the TSX Venture's Local Advisory Committee. Prior, he worked as Manager of Corporate Taxation at PricewaterhouseCoopers, advising companies in real estate, mining and entertainment sectors. Mr. Pejman earned his Bachelor of Commerce from the University of British Columbia in 1994 and received his Chartered Accountant designation in 1997.

About Anton J. Drescher

Anton J. (Tony) Drescher has been the President and Chief Executive Officer of Dorato Resources Inc. (formerly Quest Ventures Inc.) since December 20, 2004. Mr. Drescher serves as Company Secretary of Ravencrest Resources Inc. Mr. Drescher has been the Secretary of USA Video Interactive Corp. since 1994 and Chief Financial Officer since December 1994 and serves as its Principal Accounting Officer. He serves as Corporate Secretary of Amanta Resources Ltd. He has been the Secretary and Treasurer of Cal-Star Inc. (formerly, 'Future Link Systems Inc.') since 2001. Mr. Drescher has been the President of Westpoint Management Consultants Limited, a private company engaged in tax and accounting consulting for business reorganizations since, 1978; President of Harbour Pacific Capital Corp., a private British Columbia company involved in regulatory filings for businesses in Canada, since 1998. He has been the Secretary of StorageFlow Systems Corp. since February 2003, a public company listed on the TSX, which company is involved in electronic data storage. Mr. Drescher served as President and Secretary of Landmark Minerals Inc. (formerly Northern Pine Ventures Inc.). Mr. Drescher served as Chief Financial Officer of Quest Ventures Inc. (formerly, "iQuest Networks Inc.", "Interlink Systems Inc." and "Glassmaster Industries, Inc."), a public company listed on the TSX, involved in digital audio distribution, since 1993. He served as President of Waymar Resources Ltd. from August 4, 2005 to January 25, 2007. Mr. Drescher served as the President and Chief Executive Officer of International Tower Hill Mines Ltd., a public British Columbia company listed on the TSX and involved in mineral exploration, since 1991 and is responsible for its overall management and strategic planning. Mr. Drescher served as Corporate Secretary of Dorato Resources Inc. from August 12, 1993 to December 2004. He has been a Director of USA Video Interactive Corp. since 1994; Landmark Minerals Inc. since 2003 and Dorato Resources Inc. since December 1998. Mr. Drescher has been a Director of Harbour Pacific Capital Corp. since 1998, and Westpoint Management Consultants Ltd. of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada since 1978. He has been a Director of StorageFlow Systems Corp. since February 2003. He served as a Director of Amanta Resources Ltd. He served as a Director of ACT Industrial Corporation from April 1994 to February 1998; Cardero Resource Corp. from March 1996 to April 2000 and Consolidated Team Resources Corp. from May 1994 to December 1995. He served as Director of Cal-Star Inc. since 1997 and International Tower Hill Mines Limited since October 1991. Mr. Drescher obtained a Diploma in Financial Management from the British Columbia Institute of Technology in June 1974. Mr. Drescher has been a Certified Management Accountant since 1981.

About Gerhard Drescher

Gerhard Jakob Drescher has been the President of Python Technologies of Delta, British Columbia, Canada, an electronics consulting firm since 1989. Mr. Drescher has been a Director of Dorato Resources Inc. (Formerly Quest Ventures Inc.) since July 7, 2000 and serves as its Member of the Audit Committee. Mr. Drescher has been Director of Cal-Star Inc. (formerly 'Future Link Systems Inc.') since April 1994. Mr. Drescher has been a Director of International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. since May 9, 2005. He has been a Director of Landmark Minerals Inc. since June 2004. He has been a Director of Ravencrest Resources Inc., a British Columbia reporting company, since 1995. Mr. Drescher served as Director of Amanta Resources Ltd. from April 1994 to July 2004.

About Rowland Perkins

Rowland Perkins has been President of eBackup Inc., (a Calgary based company which provides customers with full back up, archiving, data management and restoration of electronic data by hard-wired or wireless internet or dedicated Virtual Private Network access to its computers and systems) since 2001. Mr. Perkins served as Alberta Regional Manager for Securitinet Storage Solutions Inc., (formerly, Intellisave Datavaults Inc.) from 1999 to 2001, a consulting company that provides backup and archiving of data on personal computers and network servers; a consulting and training company and President of Franchise Networks from 1994 to 1997, an international franchise consulting organization that assists prospective franchisees find businesses. He served as Vice President of Simul Corp. from 1997 to 1999. He has been a Director of International Tower Hill Mines Ltd., since 1998. Mr. Perkins has been a Director of eBackup Inc., since 2001. He has been an Independent Director of USA Video Interactive Corp., since January 10, 2005. He has been a Director of Dorato Resources Inc. (formerly, Quest Ventures Inc.), since January 21, 2005 and Waymar Resources Ltd., since June 2005. Mr. Perkins served as a Director of several public companies including Future Media Technologies Corp. from 1990 to 1992, Rugby Resources from 1991 to 1992, A.C.T. Industrial Corp. from 1991 to 1992, Fastlane International from 1990 to 1992, Force Resources from 1990 to 1992, Carolina Gold from 1991 to 1992 and USA Video Interactive Corp. from 1990 to 1992. He served as a Director of Powertech Industries since 1992.

About Cal Everett

After a very successful career as a Geologist and an Investment Advisor with a large Canadian securities firm, Cal Everett joined the Institutional Sales group at PI US in December 2003 and PI Financial Corp. in October 2001. Cal obtained a Bachelor of Science degree from the University of New Brunswick. Starting in 1977 through to 1989, he worked in mineral exploration as a Geologist for Amoco and Esso Minerals. Cal covers Canadian and US institutional clients and his core focus is the mining sector.

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Company Update on Aurizon Mines (ARZ: TSX-V)

On April 23rd /08 Wellington West Capital analyst Catherine Gignac provided an update on Aurizon Mines (ARZ: TSX-V)



Company Profile

Aurizon Mines is a new junior gold producer with the underground Casa Berardi mine in NW Quebec. At year-end 2006, 1.2 million oz were in the mine plan with extensions to the mine life anticipated. Exploration is also underway in and around the mine with junior partner Lakeshore Gold (LSG-T), plus at Aurizon’s two million ounce Joanna project, also in Quebec.

Click here to view previous coverage of Aurizon Mines (ARZ: TSX-V) from April 5, 2008

Event

In a note entitled “Joanna East Block Drilling ConfirmingGrade and Continuity; Scoping Study Stage” Gignac explains the reasons behind her Buy rating and target price of $6.00/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to the drill results from the East Block of its Joanna project, located 20 kilometres from Rouyn-Noranda, in north-western, Quebec, Gignac writes “Results from 24 additional drill holes confirm resource grade. Intersections include very high grade gold over narrow widths (JA-93 with 63.8 g/t over 1.4 metre, JA-139 with 60.5 g/t over 1.2 m), but mainly appear to be lower grade over wide widths. Eight infill holes with intersections from 88.5 metre – 193.5 metre depth returned an average of 1.46 g/t gold over 26.9 metres. These results are consistent with a potential open pit mining scenario.

In total, 186 holes or 70,980 metres have been drilled by Aurizon at the Joanna Project. To-date, results from 72% or 134 holes have been reported, including 24 yesterday. Results from an additional 52 infill holes are pending. In addition, five drill holes were completed in the East Block area below 500 metres to test the down-dip extension potential of the mineralization, with results to come. Above 200 metres depth, the known resource is being evaluated for future mining. The property is well-located, not well drilled and offers “considerable potential to increase the mineral resources on the property and potential to define mineral reserves by open pit”, according to the October 2007 independent technical report. Results from the current drilling will not be included in the upcoming preliminary economic assessment.

Joanna Project covers a strike length of 5 km and has known resources across almost 2 km. The East Block hosts 420,000 oz (1.6 g/t) in indicated resource and 1,150,000 oz (1.5 g/t) in the inferred category. The West Block hosts 210,000 oz (2.06 g/t) in indicated resource and 263,000 oz (1.93 g/t) in the inferred category. Earlier this month Aurizon signed an option agreement to earn up to a 50% interest in Radisson Mining’s (RDS-V) O’Brien/Kewagama property located 26 km east of Joanna.

Providing some context to the company and it’s prospects, Gignac writes, Aurizon is “developing underground targets at the new 165,000 oz/year Casa Beradi mine plus potential feed from the junior explorer’s activities on the surrounding property should ensure a long mine life. An active surface drilling program is also in progress at the Joanna deposit, in the Rouyn-Noranda mining camp, where two million ounces have been outlined to-date.”

Valuation and Target Price

With regards to valuation, Gignac writes “Aurizon is currently a one-mine gold producer. Based on a 3% discount rate, the Casa Beradi mine model, at a steady production rate returns a net present value of $362 million or $2.47 per share. Resources beyond our ten-year model are valued at $125/oz or $1.12 per share. A similar multiple is applied to the 2.0 million ounces in gold mineralization identified at the Joanna project, valued at $1.74/share. Adjusting for net working capital, the net asset value is $5.24 per share – approximately 68% of the value from Casa Beradi and 33% from Joanna. Applying market multiples of 1.1x-1.25x, similar to peers, results in a target trading range of $5.75-$6.55 per share.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Company Update on Rainy River Resources (RR: TSX-V)

On April 23rd /08 Wellington West Capital analyst Catherine Gignac provided an update on Rainy River Resources (RR: TSX-V)



Company Profile

Rainy River Resources is a junior explorer active in northwestern Ontario. Indicated Resources total 1.39 M oz at 1.26 g/t and inferred resources of 2.23 M oz at 1.03 g/t. Five drill rigs are testing strike and depth extensions of the main gold zones, plus parallel and nearby base metal zones on the large property package. Limited exploration has been completed on most of the property to-date.

Click here to view previous coverage of River Resources (RR: TSX-V) from March 22, 2008

Event

In a note entitled “Drill Results Extend 433 Zone to 350 Metres Along Trend and to a Depth of 300 Metres” Gignac explains the reasons behind her Buy rating and target price of $7.00/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to the drill results of 5 holes, all in the 433 Zone in the Richardson Township, Gignac writes “Positive assay results were returned from the most recent five drill holes, which now extend the 433 zone by 350 metres along strike, to a depth of 300 metres. The mineralized intersections are 400-500 m stratigraphically below the 17/ODM zone, beyond the known area of resource. All five holes encountered mineralization beyond resource area. The drill holes were designed to test along strike and at depth. The first four holes (NR08-227, NR08-228, NR08-229, NR08-231) were positioned along the third step-out fence (spaced 60m apart). The fifth hole (NR08-237) is on the first step-out fence and represents the most easterly intersection to date. No details have been provided yet for the quantity of resource in the 433 Zone. The indicated resource reported in February for the ODM/17 Zone and including the 433 zone was 1.39 million oz grading 1.26 g/t and 2.23 million oz grading 1.03 g/t in the inferred category.



2008 drilling program expected to be completed by Q4/08. The 46,000 m drilling program now underway is likely to increase the resource base. Only 7% of the large property package has been tested. A fifth drill rig will be mobilized next month to the Off Lake Zone, about 20 km to the north, which hosts interesting near-surface polymetallic mineralization and a large geophysical anomaly. A N.I. 43-101 compliant technical report is yet to be filed for the February resource estimate for the ODM/17, 433 Zones; another report would be expected with the completion of an updated resource estimate at year-end.”

Providing some background on the Rainy River, Gignac writes “Rainy River Resources is aggressively exploring the district-scale project. An initial resource estimate of 3.62 million ounces has now been released and the five drill rigs will remain active through 2008 as the new mineralized zones beyond the main resource area are tested. Based mainly on the ODM and 17 Zone, 1.4 million ounces gold in indicated resource, grading 1.26 g/t gold, and 2.2 million ounces at 1.03 g/t were reported in the inferred category. This covers about one-third of the prospective 3.1 km trend, excludes the extent of the new parallel zones, excludes nickel, copper, zinc and silver mineralization that occurs in proximity to the gold-rich zones, and several large untested geophysical anomalies (silver resources are estimated at 2.9M oz in the indicated category and 2.35M oz in the inferred resource category). Results confirm that a new mining camp with large-scale potential is emerging in this area of NW Ontario.”

Valuation and Target Price

With regards to valuation, Gignac writes “As the market receives more details and understanding of the resources, the potential upside, and relatively low development risk, as well as understanding of the company, improved market valuations should be realized, as with industry peers active in Ontario. Rainy River shares are currently trading at $52 enterprise value per oz gold mineralization ($135/oz indicated resource) compared to peers trading at an average of $123/oz on average. Applying average market multiples of US$100-$150/oz to the current mineralization implies a target trading range of $6.45-$9.68 per share. Recommended as Buy with a target price of $7.00 per share.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Video - Charles Maxwell Says $300/Barrel Oil by 2020

Video - Charles Maxwell Says $300/Barrel Oil by 2020



As global oil consumption rises and oil production peaks and ebbs, prices will shoot higher — a lot higher, says Maxwell. Maxwell forecasts $180 oil by 2015, and $300 a barrel by 2020. (Courtesy Yahoo Tech Ticker)

Charles Maxwell

Bio: Educated at Princeton as an undergraduate and Oxford as a graduate, Charles T. Maxwell entered the oil industry in 1957 and worked for a major international oil company for 12 years in the US, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. His background has been in four traditional sectors of the industry—producing, refining, transportation, and marketing. In 1968, Mr. Maxwell joined a well-known Wall Street firm as an oil analyst. Known as the “Dean of Energy Analysts, in polls taken by Institutional Investor magazine, Mr. Maxwell has been ranked by the US financial institutions as the No. 1 oil analyst for the years 1972, 1974, 1977 and 1981-1986. In addition, for the last 17 years he has been an active member of an Oxford-based organization comprised of OPEC and other industry executives from 30 countries who meet twice a year to discuss trends within the energy industry. Mr. Maxwell is currently employed by Weeden and Co..

Company Update on Moto Goldmines (MGL: TSX)


On April 23rd /08 Haywood Securities analyst Andrew Kaip provided an update on Moto Goldmines (MGL: TSX)



Company Profile

Moto Goldmines Limited is a gold exploration and development company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the London Stock Exchange’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM). The principal focus of the Company is to progress the Moto Gold project in the north-east of the Democratic Republic of Congo from advanced exploration through feasibility and project development to bring the resource into production.

Click here to view previous coverage of Moto Goldmines (MGL: TSX)from November 6, 2007

Event

In a note entitled “Moto – Cashed up for the Next Catalyst” Kaip explains the reasons behind his Sector Outperform rating and target price of $8.90/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to Moto’s recent $55 million equity financing, Kaip writes “With the closing of the $55 million financing (12.65 million shares at $4.35 per share) completed in early April, Moto has approximately $85 million in cash reserves that will be used to assume the US$31.1 million OKIMO loan as part of a revised licensing agreement announced at the end of 2007. Proceeds from the financing will also be used to advance exploration activities focused on the future underground potential and pre-development activities at the Moto Gold project. With positive endorsement through the recent DRC review, Moto has begun the process of negotiating a revised licence agreement with joint-venture partner OKIMO. With most of the issues presented by the Commission addressed through the November 2006 protocol, the conclusion of the Moto Gold Project feasibility study in December 2006, and recent corporate activities, we anticipate completion of this process through H2/08.”

With regards to the Moto gold project “Exploration activities at the Moto Gold Project have further delineated its underground potential. The initial scoping study outlined 1.4 Moz of indicated gold resource, with a larger inferred resource of 5.9 Moz of gold. In conjunction with on-site exploration, Moto continues to optimize the Q4/07 feasibility study and is reviewing a number of start-up scenarios for development. We view this as an important exercise to reduce development risk and initial capex exposure.

With historic production of 3.9 million ounces, a reserve/resource base of 21 million ounces, and growth contained within an “orogenic” gold setting known for size potential, the Moto Gold Project has developed into a world-class gold camp for which the prospects of outlining additional resources remain high. We see considerable synergies to future development, given that the resource zones are located in one area, and that a large component of the current resource base is contained within tabular, near-surface oxide zones amenable to open-pit mining. In concert with its goal of unlocking the value of the Moto Gold Project, management has filled in key African-development and project-finance expertise and has morphed from an exploration into a development company.”

Kaip sees “the resolution of the project licensing agreement through 2008 as key to solidifying the underlying potential of the Moto Gold Project, thus progressively reducing project risk and triggering a review by major companies seeking a world-class asset.”

Valuation and Target Price

With regards to valuation, Kaip writes “With the closing of the $55 million financing (12.65 million shares at $4.35 per share) completed in early April, Moto has approximately $85 million in cash reserves that will be used to assume the US$31.1 million OKIMO loan as part of a revised licensing agreement announced at the end of 2007. Proceeds from the financing will also be used to advance exploration activities focused on the future underground potential and pre-development activities at the Moto Gold Project.

However, incorporating “the recently completed $55 million equity issuance, we have revised our target price down marginally to $8.90 from $9.35 per share. Our target price is based on a 1.3x multiple of our project NAVPS8% of US$6.55, down from US$7.14 per share on a project financed basis. We include 37.4 million shares of project equity at an issuance price of $6.75 per share, versus our previous estimate of 27.5 million shares at an issue price of $7.20 per share. Moto trades at 0.5x NAV8%, while gold companies in our coverage universe trade at 0.9x (0.5x to 2.4x).È

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Private Placement – Riverside Resources (RRI: TSX-V)

Official Website: http://www.rivres.com/s/Home.asp



Company Profile

Riverside Resources Inc. (RRI: TSX-V) operates under a joint-venture, shared-risk business model that capitalizes on the company's technical knowledge and its vast experience in the field. The company acquires quality projects that have unrecognized upside and solid potential for discoveries. Riverside will grow by undertaking the high-return exploration and evaluation work that is needed to justify further development. With a dedicated team of proven resource discovers, the company generates a high quality property portfolio and then partners with others to conduct the extraction of mineral assets. Riverside is predominantly active in Mexico and continues to look for excellent projects with significant discovery potential

Event

On April 21st, 2008 – the TSX Venture Exchange Daily Bulletin reported that the TSX Venture Exchange had accepted for filing documentation with respect
to a Non-Brokered Private Placement announced February 6, 2008 by Riverside Resources.

Details of the Private Placement

Number of shares: 2,800,000 shares
Warrants: 2,800,000 shares share purchase warrants to purchase 2,800,000 shares
Number of Placees: 9 placees
Purchase Price: $0.90 per share

Private Placement Participants

Exploration Capital Partners 2005 Limited Partnership (Arthur Rick Rule) for 1,395,000 shares
Jeff Willis for 20,000 shares

Scott Hunter for 105,000 shares

Ladner Rose Investments Ltd. David Elliott, David Shepherd) for 28,087 shares

David Elliott for 75,000 shares

Andrew Williams for 25,000 shares

Note: The Lundin family, through their Luxembourg-based holding company Global NR Holding SA also purchased 818,580 units of Riverside Resources, as part of the private placement.


About Exploration Capital Partners (which is controlled by Rick Rule)

Rick Rule is the Founder and Chairman of Global Resource Investments, Ltd. Rick began his career in the securities business in 1974, and has been principally involved in natural resource security investments ever since. He is a leading retail broker and investor specializing in mining, energy, water, forest products and agriculture. His firm provides unique insight into the workings of the natural resource marketplace. Global Resource Investments provides investment advice and brokerage service to individuals, corporations, and institutions worldwide.

Mr. Rule is very active in private placement investment markets. He has originated and/or participated in several hundred transactions over the past 20 years, including both debt and equity in private, pre-public and public companies. These private placement activities have involved companies on six continents. Mr. Rule's private placement investment partnerships were up 55% annually net of fees since 1998, in natural resource stocks, which are these partnerships focus.

About David Elliott

David Elliott is a Vice President and Director of Haywood Securities. He works with the management team at the firm’s Vancouver office where he also oversees trading operations. David began his career in 1968 as a floor trader in Montreal, and came to Vancouver in 1970. He met John Tognetti, who would later become President and CEO of Haywood Securities, while working at Westcoast Securities in the 1970s. David came to know David Shepherd, who would later be a Director and the Secretary Treasurer of Haywood, in 1979 when the two opened a Vancouver office for the brokerage known at the time as Mead and Co. David moved from trading to sales and stayed with Mead (which became Walwyn Stodgill) until 1985. Along with John Tognetti and David Shepherd, David purchased Haywood Securities in 1985.

About David Shepherd

David Shepherd is one of the founding members of Haywood Securities and holds a key position as Secretary-Treasurer and Director with the Management team in Vancouver. David, along with David Elliott and John Tognetti, purchased Haywood in 1985. David brings invaluable experience to Haywood with over 28 years in the industry. David has provided strategic advisory services to numerous companies in the mining and technology industries, and key accomplishments include his involvement in the funding stages and creation of Manhattan Minerals.

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Company Update on Axmin Inc. (AXM: TSX-V)

On April 22nd /08 Canaccord Adams analyst Nicholas Campbell provided an update on Axmin Inc. (AXM: TSX-V)



Company Profile

AXMIN is focused on mineral exploration and development in West Africa. The company's primary asset is the Passendro Gold project, within the Bambari-Bakala permit, with current resources defined at 2.8 million ounces of Au. Axmin is also exploration the Kofi (Mali) and Nimini Hills (Sierra Leone) projects, which host a combined resource of roughly 1.1 million ounces of Au.

Click here to view previous coverage of Axmin Inc. (AXM: TSX-V) from April 4, 2008

Event

In a note entitled “DRILLING AT TOPA IRON ORE PROJECT CONFIRMS HIGH GRADES” Campbell explains the reasons behind his Speculative Buy rating and target price of C$1.30/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to Axmin’s results from the first five diamond drill holes completed on the Topa iron ore project, Campbell writes “These initial drill holes are part of a 48-hole drill program (13 diamond and 35 RC) that has been completed on the Topa iron ore project. The first five diamond drill holes returned an average grade of 63.1% iron, which is roughly in line with the average iron grade returned from 116 grab samples completed in 2006. The drill program targeted the West Limb of the Topa iron project, generally testing for iron down to a vertical depth of between 60m and 80m. The deepest hole intersected high-grade iron down to a depth of 150m. While these results show that there is potential for a large high-grade iron ore resource at Topa, a large-scale iron ore mine at Topa would require a substantial investment to improve the regional infrastructure within the Central African Republic (CAR) and to connect the CAR to a major port or rail terminal.”

Campbell goes on to say “The west limb of the Topa project has been traced over a 28km strike length and the east limb has been traced over a 20km strike length, with the zones of mineralization stretching across a 6km width. The potential size of the belt and high iron grades associated with the Topa project are promising, but it remains very early stage. The Topa project lies on the Bambari permit area, which also hosts Axmin’s Passendro gold project. The infrastructure requirements to facilitate the development and operation of a large-scale iron project at Topa would be substantial, given its remote location and the relatively poor infrastructure at hand within the CAR. That said, if Axmin can demonstrate that the Topa project hosts a substantial (1 billion-plus tonne) high-grade iron ore project, the project could attract some attention. While we do not believe the Topa project warrants value in our estimate of NAV, the Topa project does offer some long-term potential upside to Axmin shareholders.

Catalyst

“The next key catalyst for Axmin will be securing project debt and equity financing for the Passendro project.”

Valuation and Target Price

With ragrds to valuation, Campbell writes “We estimate a peak gold price NAVPS of C$1.65 per share. Our target price remains unchanged at C$1.30 per share, based on a 0.8x multiple to our peak gold price NAVPS. Based on our valuation, the current share price reflects a discounted value for the Passendro gold project and no value for the Kofi gold project (Mali), the Komahun gold project (Sierra Leone) and the Topa iron ore project (CAR). The junior mining sector is firmly out of favour with the market and Axmin’s share price has been under pressure. Nevertheless, the underlying fundamentals for junior gold companies like Axmin remain strong, in our opinion. We expect to see the valuations of junior gold equities improve once liquidity increases and stability improves in the market. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation on Axmin.

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Private Placement – 222 PIZZA EXPRESS CORP. (PIZ.H: TSX-V)


Official Website: There is currently no official website or relevant information available about 222 PIZZA EXPRESS CORP. as it is most likely a ‘Shell’ company.

What is a ‘Shell’ company?

In general, a shell company is a company that exists but does not actually do any business or have any assets. A listed shell company must have had an active business in the past, or it could not have met the requirements for a listing.
A cash shell is a shell company with a bit of cash or investments added. Listed shells are often involved in reverse takeovers. A reverse takeover is a transaction whereby a company’s shareholders may gain control of another (private or listed) company by merging it in with their company. A reverse takeover will almost always take place by way of a pure equity acquisition, also called a share swap.

Event

On April 21st , 2008 – the 222 PIZZA EXPRESS CORP. announced that it had “completed the $1.5 million private placement previously announced on March 28, 2008. Under the terms of the financing, the Company issued an aggregate of 30,000,000 units, at a price of $0.05 cents per unit. Each unit consists of one common share and one warrant exercisable for one additional common share at a price of $0.10 per share, for a period of one year. Endeavour Financial has been issued 1.5 million units as a finder's fee on monies raised in the private placement.
The Company also settled $500,000 in outstanding debt through the issuance of 10 million common shares at a deemed price of $0.05 per share. All securities issued in the private placement and debt settlement are subject to a hold period expiring on August 22, 2008.

The Company also announces the appointment of Jeff Durno as President and a Director of the Company. Mr. Durno is the managing partner of Anfield Sujir Kennedy & Durno, a Vancouver law firm focusing on corporate and securities law, and is Chairman of Emprise Capital Corporation, a Vancouver based merchant banking firm which has assisted the Company in its restructuring. Sarbjeet Mandair has resigned from his positions with the Company. The Company also announces that it has agreed to grant options to purchase an aggregate of 50,000 shares, at a price of $0.35 per share, exercisable for a period of six months.

The Radcliffe Foundation of Vancouver, BC has subscribed for 820,000 units of the private placement and has received 5,000,000 shares on the completion of the debt settlement transaction. The Radcliffe Foundation now holds 6,980,000 common shares, representing 11.97% of the Company's outstanding capital. It also owns an additional 820,000 share purchase warrants. Mr. Frank Giustra of West Vancouver, BC, controls the Radcliffe Foundation and has personally subscribed for 1,800,000 units of the private placement. Mr. Giustra now holds 4,600,000 common shares of the Company. When combined with the holdings of the Radcliffe Foundation, Mr. Giustra controls an aggregate of 11,580,000 common shares representing 19.86% of the Company's outstanding capital. Mr. Giustra also owns personally, an additional 1,800,000 share purchase warrants. Assuming the exercise of all warrants held by Mr. Giustra and the Foundation, Mr. Giustra would then own or control an aggregate of 14,200,000 common shares, representing 23.31% of the Company's then outstanding capital.

The Company is advised that the securities were acquired by the Radcliffe Foundation and Mr. Giustra for investment purposes. While they do not currently have any intention to acquire further securities of the Company, the Radcliffe Foundation or Mr. Giustra may in the future acquire or dispose of securities of the Company, through the market or otherwise, as circumstances or market conditions warrant.
The Radcliffe Foundation is a charitable foundation established to support local and international charities with the support of Frank Giustra, who is a member of the Foundation. The Radcliffe Foundation, together with the newly created Clinton-Giustra Sustainable Growth Initiative, provides support to alleviate poverty and build sustainable local economies in the world's developing countries.

Ian Telfer of Vancouver, BC, has subscribed for 6,000,000 units of the private placement. Mr. Telfer now holds 6,000,000 common shares representing 10.29% of the Company's outstanding capital. Mr. Telfer also owns an additional 6,000,000 share purchase warrants. Assuming the exercise of all warrants held by Mr. Telfer, he would then own and control an aggregate of 12,000,000 common shares, representing 18.66% of the Company's then outstanding capital. The Company is advised that the securities were acquired by Mr. Telfer for investment purposes. While he does not currently have any intention to acquire further securities of the Company, Mr. Telfer may in the future acquire or dispose of securities of the Company, through the market or otherwise, as circumstances or market conditions warrant." (Link)

About Frank Giusta, the Radcliffe Foundation and Fiore Capital Corporation

Frank Giustra, as President and CEO of Fiore Financial, brings invaluable global investment experience and relationships to Endeavour Financial. Endeavour Financial is an independent investment banking firm focused on the natural resources industry. Endeavour Financial is the Advisory Services division of Endeavour Mining Capital Corp., an integrated merchant banking company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange - symbol EDV.

As President and later Chairman and CEO of Yorkton Securities in the 1990s, Frank spearheaded equity investments of more than $3 billion in the international resource sector. Subsequently, he founded Lions Gate Entertainment, now one of the world's largest independent film companies. Recognizing the growing need for merchant banking services in the mining and minerals industries, Mr. Giustra joined Endeavour Financial as Chairman from 2001 to 2007. His vision and leadership led to the launch of numerous successful resource companies, including Wheaton River Minerals and UrAsia Energy.

Mr. Giustra is a member of the board of trustees of the William J. Clinton Foundation and the International Crisis Group and a director of the Radcliffe Foundation. In June 2007 Frank Giustra and Former President Bill Clinton launched the Clinton Giustra Sustainable Growth Initiative (CGSGI). The CGSGI will focus on alleviating poverty in the developing world in partnership with the global mining community.

About Ian Telfer

Mr. Telfer served as President and CEO of Goldcorp Inc. from March 2005 until its merger with Glamis Gold in November 2006. Mr. Telfer was previously Chairman and CEO of Wheaton River Minerals since 2002 and has over 20 years of experience in the precious metals business. As a founding director of TVX, he served as its President and CEO during the first ten years and has also held positions as a Director of Lihir Gold, President and CEO of Vengold, amongst other publicly traded companies. In these capacities Mr. Telfer has raised over $1 billion for mining exploration and development around the world.

Details of the Private Placement

Number of shares: 30,000,000 shares
Warrants: 30,000,000 share purchase warrants to purchase 30,000,000 shares
Number of Placees: 92 placees
Purchase Price: $0.05 per share

Private Placement Participants

Delia Barbosa for 25,000 shares

Paul Chalmers for 50,000 shares (Executive Vice President at Canaccord Capital)

Brenda Ferris for 25,000 shares

Alan Folk for 250,000 shares

Cheryl and/or Enrico Giustra for 25,000 shares

David Lyall for 50,000 shares (Vice President, Director of Institutional Sales & Trading at Haywood Securities)

John Skinner for 25,000 shares

About David Lyall

David has over 20 years’ experience in the investment business and proven expertise in dealing with pension funds, mutual funds and banks. He specializes in small- and large-cap financings for high-growth companies in established and emerging markets. David began his career at Pitfield Mackay Ross and later joined First Marathon Securities as a vice president and director. During his tenure at First Marathon, David was a top institutional salesperson and developed First Marathon's institutional sales department for western Canada and the United States.

About Paul Chalmers

Paul Chalmers, who has overall responsibility for the international trading department, joined Canaccord in 1990. He has been active in the securities industry for more than 35 years and is a past seat holder of the Vancouver Stock Exchange and the Alberta Stock Exchange. Paul began his career in 1966 at the Toronto Stock Exchange and later became involved in institutional sales and trading. Prior to joining Canaccord, he was chairman and founder of Canadian International Securities, a Vancouver-based securities firm. He was also the chairman of Merit Investment Corporation for nine years.

Note: If any of you know who the other participants in the private placement are, please leave a comment.

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Company Update on Coastal Energy (CEN: TSX-V)


On April 21st/08 RBC Capital Markets analyst Nathan Piper provided an update on Coastal Energy (CEN: TSX-V)



Company Profile

Coastal Energy is an international exploration and production company focused on Southeast Asia. The Company's current operations are based in Thailand where it has production from the onshore Phu Horm gas field and development opportunities in the Gulf of Thailand. The Company currently produces in the range of 12 million cubic feet of gas per day (approximately 2000 barrels oil equivalent per day) from the Phu Horm gas field located in north east Thailand and has a number of offshore oil fields currently under development.

Click here to view previous coverage of Coastal Energy (CEN: TSX-V) from March 17, 2008

Event

In a note entitled “Reserves upgrade, increased NAV and Price Target” Piper explains the reasons behind his Outperform rating and target price of $7.25/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to Coastal’s summary report of its 2007 year-end reserves, Piper writes “Coastal Energy announced an upgrade to its reserves based on an independent reserves evaluation of its Thai assets conducted by Huddlestone. The upgrade includes a 30% increase in 1P reserves to 19mmboe and a 25% increase in total 2P reserves to 45mmboe (60% oil). The upgrade follows a successful 375sq km 3D seismic survey over Block G5/43 offshore Thailand early 2007. Better understanding of the fields on this block formed the basis of the reserves upgrade. The 2P reserves of Songkhla has moved from 4.5mmbbls to 6mmbbls and Bua Ban has increased from 13mmbbls to 20mmbbls. Coastal plans to bring the two fields onstream through late 2008 and into 2009.”

Regarding Coastal Energy’s production pipeline and drill results, Piper reports “The Songkhla field is planned to be brought onstream in Q3/Q4 2008. Bua Ban is planned for Q1/Q2 2009, but appraisal drilling will be completed on the field through Q2 2008 to help understand the extent and producibility of the structure. The drilling results will determine the size of the processing facilities and capacity of the FPSO required to exploit the reserves, with the field being brought onto production in two stages. Coastal's net production could reach around 13kboe/d by mid 2009.” He also anticipates “a result from the Phu Horm South appraisal well onshore Thailand this week (Coastal 36%). It has the potential to extend the producing Phu Horm gas field (12.6% Coastal) into acreage where Coastal has a greater interest. The Phu Horm gas field has current 2P reserves of ~1Tcf and resources of up to 6.8Tcf. The company should also announce its full year results 29th April.”

Lastly, pertaining to future prospectivity, Coastal reported that it had “identified eight further prospects on the western portion of the block, highlighting the block's longer term potential. Some of the prospects can be accessed by drilling from the new Songkhla field facilities. Coastal states that the prospects have an oil-in-place of around 200mmbbls.”

Valuation and Target Price

Piper writes “On a sum-of-the-parts basis, we value Coastal at a NAV of $6.50/share. This comprises a core value of $5.25/share, which includes producing assets, development upside and net financial position, and a risked upside for exploration and appraisal drilling of $1.25/share. In our view at the current share price, the investor is paying for some of the producing/near production assets and enjoying appraisal upside for free. We use a 10% discount rate in-line with other small cap E&P companies; Thailand is a safe operating environment with stable fiscal terms. Our $7.25/share 12-month price target reflects our year-end 2008 asset values and a considered view of the company's 2008 drilling campaign.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Monday, April 21, 2008

Company Update on Aurelian Resources (ARU: TSX)

On April 18th/08 RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Curran and Haywood Securities analyst Eric Zaunscherb provided an update on Aurelian Resources (ARU: TSX)



Company Profile

Aurelian Resources Inc. (TSX: ARU) focused on their wholly-owned Condor Project, consisting of approximately 95,000 hectares in south-eastern Ecuador. Fruta del Norte (FDN), their flagship epithermal gold-silver deposit, was discovered in April 2006 and has a NI 43-101 compliant initial inferred resource of 13.7 million ounces of gold (58.9 million tonnes grading 7.23 g/t gold.

Click here to view previous coverage of Aurelian Resources (ARU: TSX) from January 29, 2008

Event

In notes entitled “Ecuador: Temporary Troubles For All?” and “Constituent Assembly Proposal Escalates Risk and Halves Price Target” Curran and Zaunscherb explain the reasons behind their Sector Perform and Sector Underperform ratings and target prices of $10.00/sh and $6.00/sh respectively.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to news that Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly had suspended all mining exploration in the country on Friday (April 18) and revoked hundreds of concessions until a new mining law is approved, Curran writes “we expect Aurelian would be among those projects deemed to be in compliance and therefore not at risk of termination. However, the imposition of a temporary suspension of concessions would likely delay exploration activity at FDN, and potentially the timeline to mine development. While ultimately an economic deposit, and likely an attractive takeover candidate, we feel it is highly unlikely that potential acquirors will move on Aurelian until the New Mining Law and Constitution are in place, and any restructuring of land concessions/contracts completed.”

Digging deeper into the proposal that was passed by the Constituent Assembly ratifying the suspension of exploration, Zaunscherb highlights a number of points with emphases and comments of his own:

“Revocation of exploration and mining concessions where investments had not been made by December 31, 2007; environmental impact studies are not current; royalties and taxes are unpaid; mining concessions are within protected natural areas, forests and protective buffer zones, or those affecting sources of water. [We note that Aurelian is current on environmental filing requirements and payments but that the key La Zarza concession is immediately adjacent to the Bosque Protectora El Zarza, a forest protection area (the irregular “hole” in Aurelian’s land position in Exhibit 1) and is criss-crossed with watercourses that ultimately feed into the Amazon River. We do not quibble over the revocation of inactive concessions or concessions in default but there are severe problems in defining ambiguous protective buffer zones and affected water sources.]

The proposal provides for the revocation of mining concessions where greater than three have been granted to a single entity or affiliated parties. [Aurelian has exposure to 41 concessions. The key Fruta del Norte mineralization is hosted on La Zarza concession but this approach will greatly limit the economics for companies seeking to build modern, efficient and optimal mines requiring economies of scale. It will also quash significant exploration interest in the country overall.]

The proposal immediately suspends all medium and large scale metallic mining activities on concessions that remain until the adoption of a new legal framework to regulate the activity and redefine the terms of their operation. [Ms. Tola is quoted as defining activities as including all activities including the taking of samples for environmental purposed. We presume that this means no exploration or engineering activities, either. The phrase “redefine the terms” implies the ownership terms under which the concessions are owned.]

Small-scale, artisanal and subsistence mining activities are not suspended as long as they are not within protected natural areas, forests and protective buffer zones, or those affecting sources of water. [This despite the fact that small-scale operations of this sort are the most inefficient and polluting of all mining activities globally. Clearly protection of the environment and Ecuador’s mineral endowment is not the primary motivation of the proposal proponents.]

The proposal commits to completing promulgation of the new Mining Law within 180
days of the enactment of the proposal. [This is a significant delay from the early days in which it was estimated that the new Mining Law would be enacted in June 2008.]

The proposal provides for the creation of a National Mining Company under the auspices of the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum. [We speculate that the new National Mining Company gets its assets from concessions “dropped” by those companies with more than three concessions and by mandated interests in projects.]

Provisions are binding. There will be no “complaints, challenges, administrative or jurisdictional actions, demands, claims, or appeals. Nor does it give rise to any compensation.” [Expropriation without appeal or compensation.]

Valuation and Target Price

Curran writes “For Aurelian, we employ a target AMC/oz of $100/oz on a target resource of 15 million ounces, which represents a premium target AMC/oz multiple for the large size and high average grade of the resource. This valuation metric generates a fair value of $11 for ARU shares. For our more traditional P/NAV and P/CF analysis, we use 1.0x and 10x target multiples, which represent significant discounts to our target ranges for the established Tier II gold producers (1.5-2.5x NAV and 15-25x CF). The discounted target multiples reflect the geopolitical risk for Ecuador and the execution risk as the FDN project remains an early staged project with pre-feasibility and feasibility studies still needed, thus Aurelian likely remains several years away from transitioning into a gold producer. Potential catalysts we could see for ARU shares in the short term include:

- Exploration drill results at FDN and other regional targets (on-going)
- Reporting of new Mining Law in Ecuador (we expect in mid-2008)
- Reporting on new Taxation for mining in Ecuador - royalty rates, windfall profits, etc. (shortly/later in 2008)”

While Zaunscherb writes “On Friday we are faced with the challenge of valuing Aurelian whose main asset may be severely and permanently impaired depending upon the outcome of the Constituent Assembly’s vote on the proposal outlined above. We do not know whether the proposal will pass or whether it will pass with changes. To model this situation we fall back upon a scenario approach wherein we define two scenarios. In Scenario A, we have the status quo, our original base case in which Aurelian has a 100% interest in Fruta del Norte subject to a 1% royalty in favour of its vendors and a 5% royalty in favour of the Government (purely our speculation as to what was somewhat arbitrarily assigned 5% of the value of the Fruta del Norte project as representative of the exploration potential on the remainder of the 102,000 hectare property.

For our Scenario B, we assume 0% leverage reflecting naturally reduced interest on the part of banks to finance the project, a 40% carried interest for Ecuador’s National Mining Company, a discount rate of 15% increased from 9% to reflect additional expropriation risk once the mine is completed (alá President Chavez of Venezuela), and nil additional exploration value given the expropriation of 38 of Aurelian’s 41 concessions.

For our formal valuation of Aurelian we start with a 50% probability for each of scenarios A and B. As outlined in our Summary Table on page two, we generate a blended NAV estimate of $720 million, or $5.35 per share. We have reduced our target project P/NAV multiple to 1.0x from 1.3x to further reflect increased uncertainty and risk as well as the reduced likelihood that the senior company cavalry will ride out of the sunset any time soon. Applying a 1.0x P/NAV multiple generates a price target of $6.00, down dramatically from our previous $12.00 target, and an 18.5% loss. This justifies a reduced rating of SECTOR UNDERPERFORM, down from SECTOR OUTPERFORM.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

Disclosure: I do own shares of Aurelian.

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Sunday, April 20, 2008

Company Update on Anatolia Minerals (ANO: TSX)


On April 17th/08 RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Curran provided an update on Anatolia Minerals (ANO: TSX)



Company Profile

Anatolia Minerals holds a commanding exploration presence in Turkey – a mineral-rich region of untapped mining potential. Active since 1996, Anatolia builds its success around a strong in-country team that attracts interest throughout the global mining community. They hold 100% interest in the Çöpler Gold Project, have a comprehensive long-term joint venture with Rio Tinto Mining & Exploration on multiple properties in Turkey and maintain a strong portfolio of additional exploration properties.

Their Çöpler Gold Project is in line to be the next major gold mine development in Turkey. They have outlined 6.3 million gold ounces at Çöpler (2.8 million ozs proven and probable and a 3.5 million oz resource). On March 2, 2007 a new mine plan was completed on 2.8 million proven and probable gold ozs (1.8 million proven ozs and 1.0 million probable ozs). The feasibility study indicates initial capital of $125.7 million for oxide mill and heap leach facilities. Excellent grades in the near-surface oxides should allow early production to average 176,000 ounces per year with cash operating costs averaging $208/oz (net silver credit). Total estimated production costs are $298/oz gold, yielding an unoptimized after-tax rate of return of 34.3% at a gold price of $475 per ounce (based on average gold price of the past 2 years). Payback occurs 1.9 years after initial production. Çöpler is expected to produce 1.8 million ounces of gold over a 10-year life. A preliminary assessment on sulfide expansion is also now underway. Resource expansion potential remains open throughout the Çöpler Region.

Event

In a note entitled “Major Project Milestone Achieved” Curran explains the reasons behind his Top Pick: Speculative Risk rating and target price of $9.00/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to Anatolia announcing that their environmental impact assessment (EIA) for the proposed Cöpler gold deposit will be granted a positive certificate by the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Forestry., Curran writes “Anatolia Minerals is successfully executing an “Early Entrant” strategy that has been attempted by a number of small cap mining companies over the years, focusing its particular efforts on Turkey. The official documentation is expected within the next month, and we expect the remaining permits will likely be granted within the next month or two, allowing construction start up early in H2/08. With an expected 18-month construction phase, we maintain our forecast for early 2010 gold production. In our view, management is capable of taking its gained knowledge to successfully transform itself from explorer/developer to producer, advancing its main project, Cöpler, through permitting, financing, and construction, to become a new gold producer in 2010. We particularly are pleased that the Board of Directors were able to attract Mr. Ed Dowling to become President and CEO of Anatolia, starting April 1. Ed was recently the President and CEO of Meridian Gold Corp., and previously was an Executive Director – Mining and Exploration with diamond giant De Beers.”

Curran outlines his investment thesis for Anatolia Minerals as follows: “We look for increased investor interest in Anatolia Minerals over the coming months, as the company achieves milestones that would allow the successful development of the Cöpler mine. Potential catalysts for the shares in the short term include:

- Revised economics for the Cöpler mine (Q2)

- Cöpler resource update (Q2)

- Completion of financing for Cöpler (summer/fall)

- Construction start up (late summer)

- Exploration drill results from Cöpler or other properties in Turkey (on-going)

With 2.8 million ounces of gold reserves, we consider Anatolia to be among the more attractive acquisition targets for Tier III gold producers (under 250Koz of annual gold output) seeking to gain Tier II status. We also believe that if the sulphide-hosted gold resources are likely to be economic, with the potential for a 7-8MMoz gold reserve at Cöpler making Anatolia Minerals an attractive target for larger Tier II (and possibly Tier I) gold producers. Our current valuation only includes the existing oxide mine plan
(2.8MMoz of mineable oxide reserves) and none of the potentially economic sulphide-hosted gold resources.”

Keep in mind that Curran does estimate that “Anatolia will likely require $80 to $100 million of additional financing (as the company already has some $135 million in cash on hand at the end of 2007) to fully fund Cöpler construction. At this point we assume the company secures project debt for this full amount later this year.”

Valuation and Target Price

Despite the appreciation in the Anatolia’s stock price since the announcement, Curran writes “Anatolia shares are trading at a P/NAV multiple of 0.68x, a slight premium to the emerging gold producer peer group averaging 0.6x, but a significant discount to the established Tier III golds averaging 1.1x, and the Tier II golds averaging 1.6x. For Anatolia, we employ 1.25x NAV and 12.5x forward P/CF target multiples, which represents a significant discount to our target range for Tier II gold producers (1.5-2.5x NAV and 15-25x P/CF). The discounted target multiples reflect the remaining execution risk to becoming a Tier III producer, and the additional execution risk to our view that Anatolia could successfully become a Tier II producer including the sulphide-hosted mineralization at Cöpler.”



Elaborating on his valuation metrics, Curran reports “Our favored valuation method for precious metals producers is a price-to-net-asset-value (P/NAV) multiple based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model constructed using our estimates of the parameters of existing or potential mining operations. We apply a forward strip approach to forecasting future gold and silver prices, using the current forward strip for gold and silver (as determined by our RBC bullion traders in the U.K.), which is reviewed periodically. Our near-term gold price forecasts are $910/oz for 2008, $935/oz for 2009, and $965/oz for 2010. Future year cash flows are then discounted using a base rate of 5%, to which a risk premium is added, depending on the currency and/or political risk which we consider the company’s operating assets to be most exposed to. We do not have separate risk adjustments for each individual country in the world, instead classifying our risk premiums as 1.8% (most of the Americas, Australia), 3.0% (Eastern Europe, Turkey, etc.), or 5.8% (South Africa, FSU). In the case of Anatolia, the significant exposure of the company’s asset base to Turkey causes us to employ a risk premium rate of 3.0%, for both discounting and mining cost inflation purposes.

On a forward-looking P/CF multiple analysis basis, we forecast Anatolia could achieve US$1.21/sh of CFPS in 2010, once the Cöpler mine is up and running. We then discount back to 2008 at 20% per annum (for the execution risk that the project is delayed, altered significantly, etc.), suggesting US$0.84/sh. Applying our target multiple of 12.5x P/CF on this estimate for Anatolia, which is well below the 15-25x range we employ for the Tier II producers, suggests a fair value of C$10.50/sh.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Company Update on Etruscan Resources (EET: TSX)

On April 16th/08 CIBC World Markets analyst Cosmos Chiu provided an update on Etruscan Resources (EET: TSX)



Company Profile

Etruscan Resources Inc. is a diversified Canadian mining company that has been exploring for gold and diamonds in Africa for over 13 years. Today, Etruscan holds one of the largest strategic land positions in West Africa covering over 13,000 km² in the prolific gold belts of Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. The Company is also active in diamond exploration and development in South Africa and iron oxide copper gold exploration in Namibia. Etruscan's interests include operations that produce gold and diamonds together with advanced stage projects and earlier stage regional exploration opportunities.



Click here to view previous coverage of Etruscan Resources (EET: TSX) from March 27, 2008 http://please-dont-take-me-seriously.blogspot.com/2008/03/buy-sell-or-hold-etruscan-resources-eet.html

Event

In a note entitled “As Youga Pours, Share Price Should Roar” Chiu explains the reasons behind his Sector Outperformer rating and target price of $5.80/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to an April 14th /08 announcement by Etruscan Resources that reported the company’s financial and operating results for the three months ended February 29, 2008 Chiu wrote “Etruscan reported a Q1/08 loss of $0.02/share, in line with our expectations of a loss of $0.01/share. Headlined loss of $0.29/share has to be adjusted for a loss on financial derivative instruments of $0.27/share.” However, without dwelling too much on the financials of Etruscan, Chiu quickly transitions to the positive developments going on at the company. “In accordance, he writes “For the month of March 2008 (its first month of production), Youga produced 1,600 oz. of gold. The ore grade processed during this commissioning period was lower, as expected, at 1.64 g/t. We expect grades to improve to closer to reserve grades of 2.7 g/t as the mine moves towards commercial production. The mill is currently working at 80% capacity (improving from 63% in the month of March) and we expect commercial production to be declared in H2/08. Etruscan is forecasting gold production between 60,000 oz. and 70,000 oz. (100% basis) for the year although this includes production from the commissioning period. We believe this forecast is aggressive as it would imply 100% throughput for the remaining nine months in the year with grades above reserve grades of 2.7 g/t (aided by high grade pockets). We are more conservative with our estimates. For 2008, we expect commercial production of 37,000 oz. (100% basis) at cash cost per ounce of US$515/oz. We expect Etruscan to be able to deliver fully into its hedge obligations at Youga from its production. Looking at the hedge book, Youga has 34,212 oz. remaining to be delivered in 2008. Obligations to deliver into the hedge book had begun in September 2007, although because of the delay in start-up at Youga, Etruscan settled the obligations in the first six months ended February 29, 2008, for cash delivery at a net cost of US$2.64 million for 21,672 oz. For the remaining term of the hedge to 2012, there is a total of 224,634 oz. (including the 2008 obligations) deliverable under sold call options at a price of US$700/oz.”

Regarding Etruscan’s Agbaou project, Chiu comments “Etruscan is currently completing a feasibility study on the project and we expect results to be released in Q3/08. After Youga, Agbaou (85% Etruscan/15% Government of Cote d’Ivoire) is Etruscan’s next most advanced project. The project currently has a total resource of 1.1 million oz. at 2.6 g/t (871,000 oz. in the indicated category and 218,000 oz. in the inferred category). The project is near established infrastructure that could keep capex lower. The project is accessible by paved road and is in close proximity to the national grid, which can serve as a power source. We are currently estimating capex of approximately $100 million. At this time, we are expecting production to begin in mid-2010. We are expecting a steady state production rate (at 100%) of 90,000 oz. at cash cost of lower than US$425/oz.”

Pertaining to Etruscan’s other properties/projects in Mali South and Mali West, Chiu reports “Etruscan’s most advanced exploration stage project at this time is the Finkolo permit located in southern Mali, just south of Resolute Mining’s 6.4M oz Syama deposit. The project is 60% held by Resolute Mining and 40% by Etruscan. Originally, this project was viewed as potential mill feed to the Syama mine, however, results to date indicate that Finkolo could be of sufficient size to warrant a stand-alone operation. The JV partners have started a drill program to test potential at depth at the six shoots identified at the Tabakoroni deposit. Results are pending, which could add further ounces to the current resource of 382,000 oz. of M&I and 364,000 oz. of inferred (on a 100% basis). This drill program could also identify future underground development opportunities.

Mali West consists of the Diba (approximately 15 kilometers south of the Sadiola Hill mine), Kobokotossou (5 kilometers south of Diba) and Keniebandi permits. In 2008, additional focus will be placed on drilling to gain a further understanding of the structural controls of the deposits. We view this as a positive step towards eventually defining a resource estimate at the deposits.”

Upcoming Catalysts

- Feasibility study for Agbaou expected in Q3/08.

- We expect drill results from Finkolo (Mali South), Diba (Mali West), step-out drilling at Youga and at Agbaou. There is currently one diamond drill on site at Finkolo undertaking a 6,100-meter drilling program. Additionally, Etruscan has three multi-drills (capable of auger, RAB and RC) at Diba, and one drill each at Youga and Agbaou.

- An IPO of the diamond properties could unlock value for these assets.

- Takeout potential given portfolio of development projects and large land packages that cover entire districts.

Valuation and Target Price

Reporting on the share price, Chiu writes “Etruscan’s share performance trailed its peers in 2007 and for the first part of 2008 because of the delay in Youga’s start-up. The original start-up was scheduled for June 2007, although the first gold pour did not take place until March 2008. Since the announcement of the first gold pour from Youga, the share price of Etruscan has outperformed its West African peers, the index, and gold bullion. We believe that the worst of the commissioning problems at Youga are behind it, and although we don’t expect Youga to meet management’s production target of 60,000 oz. to 70,000 oz. in 2008 as it is on the aggressive end (as with the production targets of most other juniors), we do expect the mine to steadily ramp up to feasibility level production without major hiccups. With Youga gaining traction, we expect that both development updates and drill results from the exploration properties will have more of a positive impact on the share price performance in 2008 (compared to 2007).”

Chiu highlights Etruscan’s takeout value by examining the recent merger proposal between Lihir Gold and Equigold, where Lihir will take control of a 1.37 million oz. deposit (including inferred resources) located in Cote d’Ivoire from Equigold’s pipeline, in addition to Equigold’s Mount Rawdon asset in Australia. Chiu writes “Equigold’s Bonikro deposit is located approximately 22 kilometers to the northwest of Agbaou with a similar geological setting and a similar size. In our opinion, Etruscan has amassed a large land package in West Africa, in addition to its development projects, which could also make it an attractive takeout candidate. Historically, on a total acquisition cost (TAC) basis, takeovers have been done at an 18% discount to the spot price of gold. Although by our calculations, the Lihir/Equigold deal was transacted at a steeper discount of 30% likely because of the higher risk profile of Cote D’Ivoire.

Using a 30% discount to a gold price of US$1,000/oz., Etruscan could be valued at US$250/oz. based on takeout valuations. This assumes capital and operating costs for Etruscan of US$450/oz. This would imply a takeover price in the range of $4.00 to $4.50 per share depending on the purchaser’s view of additional resources present at the development properties. This price takes into consideration the fair value cost to settle Etruscan’s share of the hedge at Youga and Samira Hill of approximately US$90 million at a 5% discount rate and US$1,000/oz. gold. This valuation, however, does not include the value of the company’s diamond properties, which can add upwards to approximately $0.50/share in value. This valuation also does not include the value of exploration potential present at the greenfield exploration sites, which we believe is substantial for Etruscan as it has accumulated a large land package in West Africa.”



So in conclusion, Chiu derives his price target of $5.50/sh by “using a combination of cash flow multiples and NPV valuations. We apply an 9x multiple to our 2009 cash flow estimate of $0.30/share, reflecting the company’s put/call price protection program, which essentially caps 50% of Youga’s production for the first five years at US$700/oz. We have also added the NPV of the Agbaou project, applying a 1x multiple and additional exploration potential; for its 54% interest in Etruscan Diamonds and its financial assets we apply 1x multiples, which collectively add $2.80/share. We are maintaining our Sector Outperformer–Speculative rating. We apply the “speculative” risk qualifier given that a large portion of our price target is derived from non-producing assets. Our price target implies a cash-adjusted P/NAV multiple of 1.2x.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

If you like this post, please take a moment to suscribe to my feed or Stumble/Digg it using the appropriate links at the bottom of this post! You can also post a link to it on relevant forums/bullboards. Also, feel free to debate, discuss or comment on the any of the stocks you see on this page in the comments section.

Buy, Sell or Hold NovaGold Resources (NG: TSX)

On April 16th/08 Citigroup analyst John Hill provided an update on NovaGold Resources (NG: TSX)



Company Profile

NovaGold is a development-stage precious and base metal mining company with one of the largest resource bases in the mid-tier of the industry. The company has successfully pursued a strategy of tying up large deposits when commodity prices were low, and is now bringing these toward production. Formed in 1987 and headquartered in Vancouver, B.C., the company has no significant operating revenues or earnings. The company is targeting modest production of gold in 2008 at Rock Creek at about 100 k oz per year. But the significant development projects are not expected to arrive until the medium term (+5 years). The key project is Donlin Creek, a massive refractory gold deposit in a remote area of Alaska where Barrick is the JV partner (50/50). The company also controls Galore Creek (British Columbia, 50% with Teck Cominco), a pre-development stage copper-gold project. The massive resource bases at these projects have considerable value, which is partially offset by daunting infrastructure requirements. The Ambler poly-metallic deposit and Forrest Kerr properties supplement.

Click here to view a BNN video interview with Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, CEO of NovaGold on April 18,2008

Event

In a note entitled “1Q/08: De-Risking Resource Value ... Slowly” Hill explains the reasons behind his Hold/Speculative rating and target price of $10.00/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to a conference call held by Novagold coincident with their F1Q/08 reporting, Hill writes “Delays at key projects were consistent with past trends and didn’t seem to affect sentiment. The power decision at Donlin Creek was pushed back to Fall-08 (previously mid-year) and weather issues at Rock Creek pushes start-up to 2H08 (previous 2Q).” With regards to Donline Creek, Hill writes “The decision between wind/diesel on-site generation vs. grid inter-tie for Donlin Creek has again been delayed as studies continue. Barrick/NovaGold now aim to make the decision sometime this fall. This is a delay from the “mid-08” timeframe described during end-07 reporting. Feasibility study is targeted for 2009. NovaGold remains optimistic that ongoing drilling at the Acma zone will expand resources outside the current pit plan at grades ~20% higher. More power could enable 100,000 T/day throughput (2.48 mln oz/ yr). The company will use a $750 Gold price to update the pit shell geometry this year and are looking at non-refractory mineralization. Drilling results may be out in about one month.”

Pertaining to Nome/Rock Creek, Hill writes “Snowfalls have delayed excavation and infill of tailings storage facility and dry and wet runs of milling and processing facilities have been successful.”

Concerning Galore Creek and other projects, Hill writes “The company was terse on other projects, stating only that strategic initiatives were underway.”

Reporting the results of Novagold’s first quarter ending February 29, 2008, Hill writes “In the first quarter ending February 29, 2008, NovaGold booked C$15 mln from gains on the sale of US Gold shares plus C$15 mln in recovery of suspension costs yielding a GAAP EPS of $0.26/sh diluted. Operating cashflows less depreciation, SG&A and interest costs are likely to generate scant earnings for the ~130 mln shares diluted. Their 2008 Budget includes: C$20 mln to complete Rock Creek, offset in 2H by operating cashflow the company forecasts at $25 mln, bank financing may be able to offset any shortcomings, C$18 mln for the 100% of Donlin Creek expenses that NovaGold is funding through May-08, after which a new budget will be set, C$34 mln for the Galore Creek suspension; ongoing care and maintenance is expected to remain C$5 - $10 mln and C$24 mln might be realized in the Oct warrant expiry if shares stay +C$7.” In response Hill writes “NovaGold should be able to fund operations through Commercial production at Rock Creek, though an undetermined budget at Donlin lingers in 2H.”

Furthermore, amid market turmoil in March, NovaGold priced $95 mln of Senior
Convertible Notes due May 1, 2015 bearing a 5.5% coupon payable semiannually at the March 19th/08 closing price of $7.86/sh. Face value is $1,000 per note. The conversion rate is 94.2418 shares per bond, equivalent to a price of $10.63 and representing a small 35% premium considering the 7-yr duration of the “option”. For example, at a 10% return on equity shares would climb to $15.32 in seven years (+44%). A 15% return would put shares at $20.91 (+97%). Key highlights of the notes include: “Puttable at par for cash on May 1, 2013, Dilution protection via adjustable conversion rates: note holders would only receive shares worth less than face value in the event of a take over below $7.86/sh (see final prospectus filing for schedule) and A premium to par in the event of a takeover above $7.86; for example: a takeover at $10/sh would see convert holders receive 129 shares per $1,000 face value bond, worth $1,185 per bond (an 18.5% premium to par); a takeover at $12.50 adjusts to about 111 shares worth $1,389 (an 39% premium).” In response to the issuance of Convertible Notes, Hill writes “Noteholders appear to have significant upside potential with excellent downside protection, thus it is surprising the offer was initially undersubscribed. An over-allotment of $14 mln notes could still be added, though investors might be cautions with shares currently trading slightly below the $7.86/sh closing when converts were priced. Change of control at our target price of $10/sh (31% premium) would draw about 128 mln shares on a fully diluted basis, a cost of ~$1.28 bln dollars. Fully diluted share count is up 20% YoY.”

Valuation and Target Price

In light of the conference call, Hill writes “No change has been made to our target price of $10/sh and Hold, Speculative rating. We see value in NovaGold, particularly in a take over situation. Yet, overhang from capex uncertainties at Donlin and management credibility surrounding the expensive cancellation of Galore Creek may deter M&A. Meanwhile sustaining costs are likely to offset any cashflows at Rock Creek, while write-downs may loom, particularly at Galore Creek. The fundamental volatility in the shares is expected to remain high because a confidence interval surrounding reasonable possible high-low development costs at Donlin Creek is probably greater than the current $800 mln market capitalization.”

Hill values NovaGold on “a 50-50 average of two methods: discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and market multiples per unit of payable metals, deriving an $10 target price. Funding decisions for major projects will be largely based on DCF valuation; however, we believe market multiples for similar companies are relevant, particularly for gold assets that tend to trade at significant premiums to DCFs. We value NovaGold assuming Donlin is owned 42.5%.

Sum-of-parts and DCF basis. Applying discounted cash flow analysis, a revenue blended beta (gold/silver beta is 0.2, copper beta=1.2) yields a cost of capital of 5.5%. DCF modelling is based on published studies on key development assets. Early/pre-development stage assets are valued at book or heuristic approaches. We adjust for dilutive securities and use the fully diluted share count. The target multiple is 1.0x, (based on a discount to producer gold multiples of 1.6x). This yields $9/sh.

Market Multiples. We estimate the payable metal value for comparable development stage companies with gold and copper, based enterprise value (market capitalization, plus debt, less cash) plus uncommitted capital cost relative to payable life of mine production estimates. This multiple is $230/oz for gold projects, a discount to recent deals, largely due to uncertain viability/capex costs at Donlin. This yields $10/sh.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Friday, April 18, 2008

Private Placement – Hawthorne Gold (HGC: TSX-V)

Official Website: http://www.hawthornegold.com/s/Home.asp



Company Profile

Hawthorne Gold Corp. is a Canadian-based gold exploration and development company with key properties located in British Columbia, Canada.
Hawthorne Gold is led by respected mining leaders Richard Barclay and Michael Beley together with mining veteran Michael Redfearn. Hawthorne's goal is to become a junior gold producer through planned production at Table Mountain in 2009 and continued resource development at the Frasergold and Taurus deposits. The acquisition of Table Mountain is subject to the previously announced merger with Cusac Gold Mines Ltd., expected to close in late March 2008.

Event

On April 17th, 2008 – the TSX Venture Exchange Daily Bulletin reported that the TSX Venture Exchange had accepted for filing documentation with respect to the first tranche of a Brokered Private Placement announced April 2, 2008 by Hawthorne Gold

Number of shares: 2,930,884 flow-through shares and 3,443,009 non flow-through shares
Warrants: 1,721,503 share purchase warrants to purchase 1,721,503 shares
Number of Placees: 84 placees
Purchase Price: $1.95 per flow-through share and $1.75 per non flow-through share

Private Placement Participants

M Partners Inc. for 10,100 shares (Independent full service investment bank)

J.F. Mackie & Company Ltd. for 70,500 shares (Independent equity investment firm)

Blackmont Capital Inc. for 120,700 shares (Full-service investment dealer – Part of CI Financial)

Richard Gray for 5,715 shares (Precious Metals Analyst at Blackmont Capital – See Below)

Lisa Oldridge for 25,000 shares (Investment Advisor with J.F. Mackie – See Below)

R. Jeffrey White for 25,000 shares (Managing Director, Institutional Equity Sales at Blackmont Capital)

Rick Vernon for 15,000 shares (Investment Banking at Blackmont Capital – See Below)

Paul K. C. Fong for 12,900 shares (Director of Hawthorne Gold)

Patrick McGrath for 5,000 shares (CFO and Secretary of Hawthorne Gold)

About Richard Gray

Richard joined First Associates (now Blackmont) in September 2004. He has 10 years of investment research experience in the Precious Minerals sector, five of them as an analyst. He was previously employed as an analyst at Westwind Partners, where he provided coverage on junior and emerging gold producers. Richard provides research coverage on the gold sector, including senior, intermediate and junior producers, as well as the silver sector. Richard became a CFA in 2005 and earned his Bachelor of Applied Science (Geological and Mineral Engineering, 1997) from the University of Toronto.

About Lisa Oldridge

Lisa Oldridge joined J.F. Mackie in 2004 bringing with her an in-depth knowledge of the oil and gas sector to her role as an Investment Advisor. Prior to joining J.F. Mackie, Lisa gained extensive research and analysis experience at FirstEnergy Capital Corp where she spent five years as a salesperson on the Institutional Equity Team; and before this, she spent two years as a Research Associate for the Firm with a focus on energy and energy service companies. Lisa is a Chartered Financial Analyst and holds a Master of Business Administration in Financial Management from the University of Calgary. Lisa spent three years on the board of the Calgary CFA Society.

About Rick Vernon

Rick Vernon spearheads Blackmont's investment banking coverage of the mining sector. Rick brings a broad range of capital markets and financial advisory experience to our mining clients. Most recently, he was Managing Director, Head of Investment Banking, at Northern Securities, with a focus on natural resources. Previously he was at TD Securities, primarily in the natural resources and project financing groups. Rick holds an MBA (Finance) from the University of Southern California and a Bachelor of Science (Geological Sciences, Honours) from Queen's University.

Note: The purchases outlined above total a very tiny proportion of the shares issued during this placement and represent insignificant dollar amounts to the aforementioned players. I wouldn’t read too much into these transactions.



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Buy, Sell or Hold Petro Andina Resources (PAR: TSX)

On April 16th/08 RBC Capital Markets analyst Jason Bouvier initiated coverage on Petro Andina Resources (PAR: TSX)



Company Profile

Petro Andina Resources Inc. is a junior oil and gas exploration, development and production company with headquarters in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The Corporation is developing its existing reserves and conducting appraisal and exploration drilling on its 529,000 acre (297,000 acre net) land position in the Neuquén basin of Argentina. The Company also holds minor oil and gas interests in Alberta, Canada and has recently announced the execution of a Joint Venture Agreement allowing Petro Andina to explore blocks in Trinidad and Tobago.

Event

In a note entitled “Low Cost Heavy Oil Exploitation” Bouvier explains the reasons behind his Outperform rating and target price of $14.00/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

In introducing investors to Petro Andina, Bouvier writes “Petro Andina is a junior oil and gas company focusing its efforts in Argentina. The company is currently producing over 10,000 bbl/d. The company also recently completed a joint venture agreement to acquire two onshore exploration blocks in Trinidad and Tobago. In our view, Petro Andina's assets offer considerable production and reserve growth upside via low-risk, development drilling and through increased recoveries.”



According to Bouvier, some of the highlights of Petro Andina include its “sizable land position in Argentina (~297,000 net undeveloped acres) and plans to focus the majority of its 2008-2010 drilling program developing its heavy oil properties. Petro Andina’s acreage is on a heavy oil trend much like the Western Canadian Cretaceous heavy oil trend. PAR’s development and production is from the Upper and Lower Centenario sand deposits of the Cretaceous age found at depths of approximately 600 to 700 meters. These reservoirs are predominantly stratigraphic traps with net pays ranging from 1 to 17 meters in thickness. The crude quality is 19° API (“heavy oil”). Shallower gas production from formations between 300 to 500 meters in depth, are developed only as required for fuel gas. The company has identified ~500 low risk development locations to be drilled up over the next three years.

The company continues to develop its water-flood program, which has the potential to increase recoveries from ~10% under primary to 20-35%. The JCP pilot water-flood (Upper Centenario) and the ECN water-flood (Lower Centenario) have both demonstrated positive responses from water injection. The JCP water-flood, having the most history has seen both pressure and production response from offsetting wells. The primary decline has been reversed on the JCP pilot with a period of increasing production. The production profile is expected to flatten, however the watercut will continue to increase. The ability to handle large volumes of water will be imperative to achieving higher recoveries. We expect PAR will need to continue upgrading facilities for increased water production and injection. In addition, the company is testing a thermal project which could further enhance recoveries to over 50% of original oil in place. The thick continuous sand of the CoHS makes this field an ideal candidate for thermal (steam) recovery. Sufficient results of the pilot steam project are unlikely to be available until mid 2008. PAR will be evaluating the technical and economic feasibility prior to initiating further extension of the project. Solution gas and gas from shallow zones are used to fuel the steam generators and facilities. Recoveries for steam injection can be as high as 50 – 80% of the OOIP of the developed area. This is similar to recoveries being estimated in the WCSB steam injection projects, as well as other parts of the world. For the CoHS wells with net pays of 15 meters, this would equate to recoveries per well ranging from 850 to 1,300 mbbl per well on 20 acre drainage. Should steam injection not prove up as expected, this field could have a water-flood scheme implemented where recoveries are in the range of 15 – 35% of the OOIP, similar to other fields in the area.

In November, 2007 the Argentinean government capped light oil prices at US$42/bbl, when WTI levels are at ~US$61/bbl. As such, Petro-Andina's Argentinean assets do not participate in price upside beyond these levels for now Although this limits upside potential via higher world oil prices (as is the case in the current environment), it also limits the downside to cash flows should WTI prices fall from their current levels of over US$100/bbl..

In our opinion, the management team has the necessary skill set to execute on its existing opportunities as well as source new opportunities. As a testament to management's ability, Petro Andina has profitably grown production from ~500 bbl/d to over 10,000 bbl/d in the last two years. Petro Andina also has a high working interest and is the operator of its entire Argentinean land base.”

Valuation and Target Price

Bouvier’s target price of $14/sh is made up of his estimates of the company’s “blow-down net asset value plus the risked exploration upside. Our target price assumes the realized oil price cap will remain and therefore, there is upside to our target price should the price cap be pushed to a higher level. A 10% increase to PAR's realized prices would result in a 10-12% increase in our target price.



Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Buy, Sell or Hold Crowflight Minerals (CML: TSX-V)

On April 10th/08 Versant Partners analyst Ian Parkinson initiated coverage on Crowflight Minerals (CML: TSX-V)



Company Profile

Crowflight Minerals Limited is a junior mining exploration and development company with properties and activities in two of Canada's most prolific mining camps: the Thompson Nickel Belt (TNB) in Manitoba and the Sudbury Basin in Ontario. The Company is currently focused on construction of the Bucko Lake Nickel Mine, located near Wabowden, Manitoba, which is scheduled to begin production in mid-2008. In addition to the development of the Bucko Lake Nickel Mine, Crowflight owns or has under option an additional 800 square kilometres of advanced-stage exploration properties in Manitoba and Ontario.

Event

In a note entitled “Abundant cash flow, low risk and expandable – everything you want in a mine” Parkinson explains the reasons behind his Speculative Buy rating and target price of $1.10
Takeaways From The Event

In his introduction to Crowflight, Parkinson writes “Crowflight Minerals Inc. is developing the Bucko Lake mine in Northern Manitoba. Production is set to commence in the third quarter of 2008 and abundant cash flow will follow. Crowflight is studying the feasibility of lowering the cut-off grade to 1.0% Ni instead of 1.4% Ni to increase the mill throughput from 1,000 tpd to 1,500 tpd from the Bucko Mine. Using both the shaft and a ramp access from surface the additional production can be facilitated. Lowering the cut-off grade has the potential of nearly doubling the existing reserve. Additionally the company is endeavouring to grow the resource base through their ongoing regional exploration campaigns. Any expansion after initial startup will bring value forward and improve returns for shareholders. Nickel prices are forecast to remain high as supply constraints continue and the demand for nickel from emerging markets grows. Both the potential of further industry consolidation and the potential of continued exploration success support our valuation of Crowflight Minerals Inc.”



Getting into the specifics of the company, Parkinson reports “Mine rehab and construction is nearing completion. Crowflight has received the provincial Environment Act licence that allows production. Construction of the 1,500 tonnes per day mill is almost complete. Crowflight is positioned to benefit from cash flow beginning in the third quarter of 2008 and ramping to ~$58 M in 2009. The current mine plan involves mining 1,000 tonnes per day. This rate does not fully exploit the resource. Crowflight is poised to advantageously change the production plans as market conditions allow. Possessing a scalable operation in a volatile marketplace is an enviable position to be in.

Operating in the prolific Thompson Nickel Belt provides access to trained people, contractors and technical services required during start-up and continuing operations. The Bucko Lake project with its road access, line power and rail service is advantageously positioned. Operating exclusively in Manitoba and Ontario, Canada eliminates any possible country risk. Manitoba is ranked #4 worldwide in mineral policies by the Fraser Institute.

Crowflight holds frequent information sessions with Wabowden and surrounding communities (Snow Lake, Cross Lake, Thompson, MMF reps) to ensure that community members are informed. Such meetings have been held for several years and will continue in the future. Crowflight welcomes other opportunities for community participation as well, for example the Cross Lake tobacco ceremony.

The prolific Thompson Nickel Belt has not given up all its deposit secrets. Crowflight possesses a large prospective land package capable of delivering additional economic deposits. With a mill nearing completion, the path to production for additional deposits is already well advanced.

Crowflight is in the enviable position of cash flow “right around the corner”. Being one of the first to the trough of the new breed of mining companies in Canada and near-term abundant cash flow, Crowflight is well positioned to be a consolidator in a market environment where many good projects are struggling to secure adequate financing for further development.”

Valuation and Target Price

Parkinson’s valuation is based on a “NAV analysis of the Bucko Lake mine with the assumption that the project will eventually ramp-up to the 1,500 mtpd production level in 2010, which is the design capacity of mill.” He assigns “no value to additional exploration targets within Crowflights’ portfolio but looks to future exploration success to additionally increase shareholder value.” Parkinson’s investment thesis for Crowflight is “Buy Crowflight Minerals Inc. for exposure to the current price of nickel. As a result of recent industry consolidation, few emerging producers exist. Timelines to production across the industry are being pushed further and further out. Crowflight is positioned to deliver value to shareholders in the very near term.”

Parkinson’s cash flow forecasts to 2015 are outlined below:



Grade average of 1.84%

Recovery rates of 81%

Nickel prices ranging between US$14/lb - US $8.00/lb

Average costs averaging US$3.85/lb

Exploration expenditures of US$6.5M this year

Potential upside from exploration work not factored in

Discount rate of 8.00%

Exchange rate assumed at par for 2008/9 and 0.85 USD/CAD from 2010

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Thursday, April 17, 2008

Private Placement – International Barytex Resources (IBX: TSX-V)


Official Website: http://www.barytex.com/

Company Profile



International Barytex Resources (IBX: TSX-V) is a Canadian mineral exploration company managed by capable professionals with successful track records and many years of experience in the mineral exploration and development industry. The management of Barytex is focused on the identification and exploration of economically attractive metallic mineral deposits. Barytex is currently advancing the Shituru high grade copper-cobalt deposit located at Likasi, Democratic Republic of the Congo where Barytex holds an option to earn a 65% interest. The Shituru deposit is a high grade oxide copper resource amenable to open pit mining. A feasibility study is currently underway with expected completion for mid 2008. Barytex has an option to acquire up to an 86.67% interest in stages in East China Capital Investments Ltd. (ECCI) whose sole asset is an option to acquire a 75% share interest in the Shituru Copper-Cobalt deposit from Generale Des Carrieres et des Mines ("Gecamines"). When fully exercised the interests in the Shituru Property will be indirectly held 65%.

Note

Dr. Roman Shklanka is Chairman and Director of International Barytex Resources (IBX: TSX-V). He is an international mineral explorer with over 40 years of experience in the mining industry. He has a doctorate in Petrology and Ore Deposits from Stanford University and two additional degrees from the University of Saskatchewan. They are a Master of Arts degree in Geology and a Bachelor of Commerce degree. Dr. Shklanka worked his way up the ladder of responsibility for the Placer Organization between 1969 and 1990. His tenure at Placer culminated in his positions as the General Manager of Exploration for Placer Development, and as Vice President of Foreign Exploration for the parent company, Placer Dome Inc. While he was with Placer he negotiated for the acquisition of a number of properties with foreign governments and other entities, and was responsible for not only their purchase, but for their development and movement into production. Subsequently, Dr. Shklanka was the chairman of Sutton Resources, and he also held the position of Canico Resource Corp’s chairman. Sutton Resources was acquired by Barrick Gold Corp. in 1999 for C$525 million. Canico Resource Corp. was acquired by CVRD in 2005 for $950 million.

Click here to read the Preliminary Economic Assessment of the Shituru Copper deposit completed in March 2008 (PDF File)

Event

On April 16th, 2008 – the TSX Venture Exchange Daily Bulletin reported that the TSX Venture Exchange had accepted for filing documentation with respect to a Non-Brokered Private Placement announced March 13, 2008 by International Barytex Resources

Number of shares: 7,000,000 shares
Warrants: 7,000,000 share purchase warrants to purchase 7,000,000 shares
Number of Placees: 79 placees
Purchase Price: $0.75 per share

Private Placement Participants

Bruno Barde for 10,000 shares (P. Geo, Exploration Manager - International Barytex)

Tamara Ross for 15,000 shares

Jock Ross for 35,000 shares

Robert Sali for 250,000 shares (see below)

Richard Cohen for 50,000 shares (see below)

Samuel Yik for 20,000 shares (CA, CFO of International Barytex)

Kerry Smith for 25,000 shares (Senior Mining Analyst at Haywood Securities)

Leanna Jiang for 50,000 shares

Daryl Hodges for 26,000 shares (Senior Managing Director, Investment Banking Jennings Capital)

Angelo P. Comi for 10,000 shares (possibly a relative of John Comi – see next line)

John Comi for 7,000 shares (M.B.A., CFA - Investment Advisor at Jennings Capital)

Michele Cappuccitti for 6,000 shares (possibly a relative of Michael Cappuccitti - Senior Vice-President & Branch Manager at Jennings Capital)

Simion Candrea for 6,000 shares (Corporate Finance Associate at Jennings Capital)

About Robert Sali

Robert Sali is a member of the board of directors of Vostok Nafta Investment Ltd. Robert J. Sali has been active in the financial world since 1987 at the brokerage firms of Levesque Beaubien Inc. and BMO Nesbitt Burns. In 1999 Robert J. Sali established the operation of Dundee Securities Corporation in western Canada, where Robert J. Sali directed operations in the Equity Sales and Trading departments. Robert J. Sali is currently employed by Dundee Securities Corporation as senior investment adviser. In the last five years Robert J. Sali has been, but is no longer, a member of the board of directors of Vostok Gas Ltd. Vostok Nafta Investment Ltd is an investment company with the business concept of using experience, expertise and existing network to identify and invest in assets with considerable value growth potential, with the focus on Russia and the other CIS states. Lukas H. Lundin is the Chairman of the board of directors of Vostok Nafta Investment Ltd.

About Richard Cohen

Up until 2005, Mr. Cohen was Senior Vice President & Director for Dundee Securities Corp. From 1979 to 1981, Mr. Cohen worked as a mill metallurgist for Utah Mines Ltd. at their Island Copper Mine. Mr. Cohen began his mining investment career with Prudential Bache Securities in 1983 as a mining analyst. He subsequently worked as a mining analyst with BBN James Capel Inc. from 1986 to 1991 and with Goepel McDermid Inc. from 1991 to 1998. He joined Dundee Securities in 1998 as head of their mining corporate finance team. Mr. Cohen received his B.A.Sc. degree in Mineral Engineering from the University of British Columbia in 1979 and his MBA degree from the University of Western Ontario in 1983. Mr. Cohen is designated as a Professional Engineer in the Provinces of British Columbia and Ontario.

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George Soros Video With Charlie Rose on April 11, 2008

Video of George Soros in a conversation with Charlie Rose on April 11, 2008

Buy, Sell or Hold Crew Energy (CR: TSX)

On April 15th/08 RBC Capital Markets analyst Jason Bouvier provided an update on Crew Energy (CR: TSX)



Company Profile

Crew Energy Inc. is a growth-oriented oil and natural gas producer. Crew's activities are concentrated in central Alberta and northeast British Columbia and focus on the development and expansion of its core natural gas and light oil producing areas and exploration of its large, undeveloped land base. Crew’s experienced management team is committed to the pursuit of sustainable per share growth through a balanced mix of financially responsible exploration and development, complemented by strategic acquisitions.

Event

In a note entitled “Target Price Raised on Increased Montney Exposure” Bouvier explains the reasons behind his Sector Perform rating and target price of $15.00/sh.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to an April 14th /08 announcement by Crew Energy that said Crew had entered into an agreement to acquire approximately 104 net sections of Montney formation rights in northeast British Columbia (B.C.), Bouvier wrote “The acquisition includes 70 sections which are adjacent (or in close proximity) to Crew's 23 net sections at Septimus (see Exhibit 1). This will increase CR's land base to 304,000 net undeveloped acres (45% in northeast B.C.) and will give Crew priority access to two gas gathering systems and three natural gas facilities in the area. This acquisition provides Crew with the critical mass necessary to efficiently exploit the play. The acquisition metric of about $950/acre is quite favorable compared to recent land sales that have averaged ~$4,000/acre.”



Bouvier goes on to say “The company has identified a drilling inventory of over 300 locations targeting the upper Montney formation. Horizontal multi-frac drilling has proven successful in exploiting the Montney formation in nearby analogs. Crew plans on drilling 14 Montney Horizontal tests in 2008. Due to its expanded drilling inventory, the company has increased its 2008 capital budget to $150 million (up $30 million from $120 million). Including the acquisition, the total capital budget will total $215 million which will be funded through cash flow, its existing credit facility ($180 million) and through an equity issuance of ~$67 million (5.0 million shares at $13.35 per share).”

Valuation and Target Price

After analyzing the transaction, Bouvier wrote “In recognition of the potential value creation from the company's significant land base in NE BC (potential for over 150 net sections targeting the Montney formation) we are increasing our target price from $13 to $15/share. We are maintaining our Sector Perform, Above Average Risk rating. Our $15.00 price target is set at approximately 1.5x our estimated year-end 2007 blow-down NAVPS of $10.20 using NYMEX futures prices. This compares to the average target multiple of 1.4x NAVPS for the juniors group. Target premiums/discounts to NAVPS are based on our estimate of future NAVPS growth.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Private Placement – ATW Venture (ATW: TSX-V)

Official Website: http://www.atwventure.com/



Company Profile

ATW Venture Corp. has two main projects namely the Burnakura Gold Mine and the Gullewa Gold Mine.

Located in the West Yilgarn goldfields of Western Australia, the Burnakura Gold Mine consists of 58.8 square km of mining leases and prospecting licenses, a fully permitted 160,000 tonne per annum (450 tpd) CIL gold plant, rolling stock, underground equipment, workshops, office space and a 90 man camp. The project covers 12km of prospective strike length along a major auriferous shear zone and mesothermal gold system. Historic production on the project focused on lower grade surface oxides, which had been historically mined from 15 open pits stretching along the entire 12 km of strike length. Management believes significant potential exists to expand the low grade surface and high grade underground resources on the property. ATW's current focus is to streamline production facilities at Burnakura, with a goal of pouring the company’s first gold in mid 2008.

The Gullewa Gold Mine is located 450 km north of Perth, 160 km east of Geraldton and 300km south west of ATW’s 100% owned Burnakura Gold Mine in the Yilgarn goldfields of Western Australia. The Gullewa Project includes a total of 756 km2 of mineral tenements that cover the prospective central and southern portions of the Gullewa Greenstone Belt and include the Gullewa Mining Centre, the Deflector Deposit, the Prince George Mine, the Michaelangelo and Monarch Prospects. Mining infrastructure assets of the Gullewa Project include a turn-key gold operation with a Carbon-In-Leach plant capable of up to 300,000 tpa (tonne per annum) gold production, a licensed tailings disposal facility, a 50-person camp, offices, workshops, bore fields and haulage roads.

Event

On April 15th, 2008 – the TSX Venture Exchange Daily Bulletin reported that the TSX Venture Exchange had accepted for filing documentation with respect to a Brokered Private Placement announced February 29, 2008 and March 18, 2008 by ATW Venture Corp.

Number of shares: 11,555,900 shares

Number of Placees: 86 placees

Purchase Price: $0.95 per share

Private Placement Participants

Sprott Asset Management for 3,000,000 shares
David M. Stone for 50,000 shares

About Sprott Asset Management

Founded in 2000 by Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management manages about $7 billion in assets. The company manages 6 mutual funds and 7 hedge funds. The company has been phenomenally successful in picking investment themes long before the broader markets capitalize on them. For example, “Sprott was buying gold back in 2000, when it traded below $300 (U.S.) per ounce, he took a shine to uranium in 2003, on the cusp of a gradual 10-fold price increase and lately, his search for the next big score has led him to stocks in commodities like molybdenum, phosphates and silicon” - Globe Investor article
Sprott Asset Management has been involved in the junior resource markets for a long time and are perhaps the most active investors in that markets. The mere mention of a private placement with Sprott can dramatically impact the share prices of some of these stocks. Take it for what its worth but I think the guys at Sprott (Eric, Peter Hodson, Jean-Francois Tardif, Allan Jacobs, Peter Imhof and John Embry) are some of the smartest money managers in Canada and their knowledge of the junior resource market is unparalleled. Website: http://www.sprott.com/

About David M. Stone

David is a Director of ATW Venture Corp. and has 30 years of engineering and financial consulting experience to underground and surface metal mines worldwide. He has managed and led multidisciplinary project teams through pre-feasibility and feasibility level evaluations of development stage projects, and has contributed to the engineering, design and construction of several mines. Dr. Stone received his B.Sc. in Geological Engineering from UBC and went on to complete a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering at Queen’s University at Kingston where he returned in 2002 to complete an MBA. He is a licensed professional engineer in numerous Canadian and US jurisdictions.

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Buy, Sell or Hold Solana Resources (SOR: TSX-V)

On April 14th/08 Blackmont Capital analyst Alexander Klein provided an update on Solana Resources (SOR: TSX-V)



Company Profile

Solana Resources Limited is an international resource company, headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, and is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas. Solana applies a combination of extensive international resource experience, know how and capital to identify, explore and exploit oil and natural gas assets.

Event

In a note entitled “2007 Year-End Results; Significant Increase in Reserves and NAV” Klein explains the reasons behind his Speculative Buy rating and target price of $4.00

Takeaways From The Event

In responding to an April 10th, 2008 announcement detailing Solana’s 2007 year end financial and operating results, Klein writes “Solana exited 2007 producing 2,695 BOE/d (94% oil) and averaged approximately 956 BOE/d for the year (working interest before royalties). Average production was better than our 792 BOE/d estimate. The company generated US$10.1 million in cash flow ($0.10/share), substantially above our $4.5 million ($0.04/share) forecast. Solana had a net loss of US $9.3 million ($0.09/share), which was marginally worse than our net loss estimate of $7.8 million ($0.08/share). The company ended the year with US $71.5 million in cash and is well funded to complete its aggressive development and exploration drilling program for 2008 that includes five firm exploration wells in addition to two firm development (already drilled) and four appraisal wells at Costayaco. Long-term testing of Costayaco-2 should now be underway and production is estimated to be between 1,800 and 3,500 bbls/d (900 to 1,750 net to Solana) over the course of the four-month test period. Including this well, we estimate current working interest production for Solana of between 3,350 and 4,500 BOE/d, a substantial increase over the 2007 year-end exit rate (Appendix I). Continued success at Costayaco will drive production growth through 2009.”

With respect to reserves, Klein writes “Reserves at the end of 2007 have increased significantly and reflect increased reserve assignments at Costayaco. Costayaco dominates total reserves in all categories and represents 90% of 2P and 92% of 3P reserves on a Solana working interest basis (88% and 91%, respectively, on a net after royalty basis). Thus, of the 3P estimate of 20.5 mmBOE, Costayaco represents 18.8 mmBOE on a working interest basis. Therefore, the estimate of total field size on a 3P basis is 37.7 mmBOE. This compares reasonably well with our estimate of 46 mmBOE. We expect that a further reserve estimate increase will occur by mid-year 2008 given that long-term test results for C-2 should be available, C-3 will have been tested, and C-4 will have been drilled and tested. Additionally, testing of Primavera-1 should be complete and Palmitas-2 should also be drilled and if successful, tested. Long-term test results for Tres Curvas-1 should also be available.”

Catalysts

Klein reports “Costayaco-3 (C-3) testing operations began March 19 and are expected to take at least four weeks with results available towards the end of April. Only the Lower Caballos and Villeta T formations are being tested. The C-3 well is located 950 metres west and down-dip from the C-1 discovery well. Solana Resources has a non-operated 50% working interest in the Chaza Block where Costayaco is located. Gran Tierra (GTE-TSX, GTE-AMEX) is the operator of the block with the other 50% working interest. Solana and its partner are in the process of permitting a new delineation well (C-5) northwest of C-3 and further down-dip to test for an oil/water contact in the Villeta T formation. The exact location is not known but we estimate that the distance from C-3 would be no less than 500 metres. This well would not spud until C-4 drilling is complete, which we believe will occur around the end of April. Rig mobilization could take as long as 30 days so the well will likely spud sometime in late May or early June.

The C-4 infill development well spud on March 16 and is expected to take six weeks to drill; this is a longer period of time than the other Costayaco wells because cores will be extracted from the primary reservoir formations. C-4 is a deviated well being drilled from the C-2 pad with a targeted location 541 metres to the north of the C-2 location. Long-term testing of the C-2 should be underway. Production from the well is expected to vary between 1,800 and 3,500 bbls/d (900 and 1,750 bbls/d net to Solana) as various zones are tested over a four-month period. The C-1 well continues to produce at approximately 3,500 bbls/d (1,750 net to Solana) with only trace water. Line pipe has been delivered and environmental permits received for the eight-inch 10-km pipeline that will connect Costayaco-1 to pipeline infrastructure at Uchupayaco. This pipeline is expected to be completed by June 2008 and will eliminate current trucking operations.

Located to the east of the Chaza block, the Guayuyaco field was producing 566 bbls/d at the end of December (198 bbls/d net to Solana). The six-inch production line between the Juanambu-1 (J-1) discovery (SOR 35%) and the Torayaco facility was completed at the end of February, eliminating trucking operations. The well is producing at about 1,400 bbls/d (490 bbls/d net to Solana).



Beyond Costayaco, Solana has five firm exploration wells planned for 2008. The first of these, Primavera-1 spud on February 20, 2008, and reached total depth of 7,405 feet on March 1, 2008. Initial log interpretations, MDT tests, and sidewall cores indicate potential oil pay in the Carbonera C5 and C7 formations. Testing is to begin in mid-April and be completed by the end of April. Primavera-1 is located on the Guachiria Block (SOR operator, 100% WI, Lewis Energy 30% beneficial interest) in the Llanos Basin, Colombia. The second exploration well Palmitas-2 spud March 21, 2008. The well is located on the Guachiria Sur Block where Solana has a 100% working interest and is operator. Lewis Energy Colombia has a 30% beneficial interest in the block.”

Addendum

On April 14, 2008 Solana announced "that it had drilled, logged, cased & is preparing to test the Palmitas-2 well located on the Guachiria Sur block in the Llanos Basin. Drilling of Palmitas-2
commenced March 21 & reached TD of 6,905 ft on March 28. Initial log interpretations & MDT tests indicate potential oil pay in the Carbonera C-7 formation. A service rig is currently being mobilized to test the Primavera-1 well. Upon completion (end of April) the rig will be moved to Palmitas-2 to commence testing operations which are anticipated to be completed by mid-May. Topochu-1 should spud before month-end." Responding to this announcement, Klein writes "In our $4.00/sh NAV we have a risked value of $0.28 for Primavera and Palmitas. The unrisked
value is $1.13; thus, successful test results should have a positive impact on our valuation."

Valuation and Price Target

Klein writes “Solana Resources has a visible production growth profile extending through 2008 and into 2009. The company has five firm exploration wells planned for 2008 (Klein does not include any production or cash flow estimates to the 5 exploration wells in his forecasts but does include risked reserves of 6.5 mmbbls for these targets in his NAV calculation, equating to $0.61/sh) in addition to any potential growth at Costayaco. Success on any one of these prospects could add additional value beyond what we have included in our estimates. The oil/water contact at Costayaco has yet to be defined, leaving room for potential upward reserve revisions. Our $4.00 per share target price is based on a risked after-tax net asset value. We reiterate our Speculative BUY recommendation.

In the figure below, Klein provides a sensitivity table of his NAV/share estimate for Solana at various different long-term oil prices compared against different reserve values for Costayaco. Along with other assumptions, this estimate is based on a conservative long-term average oil price of US $72.30/bbl and estimated recoverable reserves at Costayaco of 46 mmbbls (23 mmbbls net to Solana).



Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Private Placement - Canadian Phoenix Resources (CPH: TSX-V)

Official Website: http://www.arapahoe-energy.com/s/Home.asp






Company Profile

Canadian Phoenix Resources is a growth orientated company committed to adding shareholder value through exploration and exploitation of its current assets as well as entering into additional joint ventures and/or equity investments in other industry companies and Western Canadian First Nations.

The strategic focus of Canadian Phoenix is on sustainable and profitable per share growth in both cash flow from operations and net asset value. To accomplish this, Canadian Phoenix will focus on enhancing its asset base through continued land acquisitions, seismic programs, exploratory and development drilling on its existing properties.

Event

On April 11th, 2008 – the TSX Venture Exchange Daily Bulletin reported that the
TSX Venture Exchange had accepted for filing documentation with respect to a Non-Brokered Private Placement announced September 25, December 7, and December 31, 2007 by Canadian Phoenix Resources.

Number of shares: 40,000,000 Units (Each Unit consists of one common share and one share purchase warrant) & 102,200,000 flow-through common shares ('FT Shares')

Number of Placees: 13 placees

Private Placement Participants

Trapeze Asset Management (Randall Abramson) for 25,042,700 FT Shares & 24,708,800 Units

Trapeze Capital Corp. (Randall Abramson) for 14,957,300 FT Shares and 7,291,200 Units

About Trapeze Asset Management

Trapeze Asset Management Inc. (TAMI ) is an investment counselor/portfolio management firm which manages equity/growth, income and balanced portfolios on a discretionary basis for high net worth individuals and institutions. TAMI provides its money management services primarily through individually managed accounts.

Randall Abramson, B.Comm., CFA Randall is a co-founder, CEO and a portfolio manager at TAMI. Previously, Randall was a portfolio manager and analyst at Connor Clark for 3 years. Prior thereto, he was an analyst and portfolio manager at institutional money manager, Hodgson Roberton Laing Limited for 5 years. Randall began his career in investment banking with The Hathaway Corporation.

The guys at Trapeze have averaged annualized returns of 24.9% since inception (October 1st, 1998) in their long/short accounts and 24% over the same period in their long only accounts. I’m a huge fan of these guys and encourage everyone to visit their website (http://www.trapezeasset.com/) to read their quarterly letters (http://www.trapezeasset.com/news.html)

Company Update on TG World Energy (TGE: TSX-V)

On April 14th/08 Wellington West Capital analyst Malcolm Shaw provided an update on TG World Energy (TGE: TSX-V)



Company Profile

TG World Energy is a Canadian exploration firm listed on the TSX Venture exchange and based out of Calgary, Alberta. TGE is part of a joint venture that has assembled over 335,000 acres on the Alaskan North Slope where the company is targeting fields too small to be of interest to the majors. The company also has 20% interest in the Ténéré block in Niger – an early-stage multi-hundred million barrel potential frontier project.

Click here to view previous coverage of TG World Energy (TGE: TSX-V) from February 29, 2008

Event

In a note entitled “Tofkat Drilling Proves Up Kuparuk Oil Potential – Sets the Stage for Follow-Up” Shaw explains the reasons behind his Speculative Buy rating and target price of C$2.10

Takeaways From The Event



In responding to an April 14th, 2008 update on the Alaska Central North Slope winter 2008 exploration program, which is being carried out by the project operator Brooks Range Petroleum Corporation, Shaw writes “TG World and their partners have reported that the Tofkat #1 exploration well has encountered a 10 foot-thick oil charged Kuparuk sand with 6 feet of net oil pay and no water, suggesting that the company has drilled into the edge of an oil-charged Kuparuk sand fairway. Two sidetracks to the discovery well were also drilled (Tofkat #1A and Tofkat #1B), but both failed to reach the interpreted Kuraruk reservoir sand fairway. Bottom hole target locations were limited by the reach of the drilling rig from the Tofkat ice pad location (on the east side of a river that runs through the area) and as a result only the westernmost well, Tofkat #1, was able to reach the discovered sand fairway which is interpreted to thicken to the west. Next season, the companies plan to construct the ice pad on the western side of the river, which would put the rig in a position to appraise the discovery without exceeding the rig’s drilling capacity. The discovery is stratigraphic in nature and confirms the joint venture’s geological interpretation in the area. Using a probabilistic resource calculation method, we estimate the P50 prospective resource potential of the Kuparuk zone to be 36.4 mmbbls – we have not included any resource potential for any of the other prospective zones at this time, but believe that the possibility of 60-65 mmbbls of gross resource potential remains in play. The parameters we used as input into our prospective resource estimate and the resulting P10-P50-P90 range is shown in Exhibit 2. TGE has a 25% working interest in the Tofkat discovery and surrounding lands where the joint venture has about 250 mi2 of leases. We continue to carry $0.56/sh in net risked value for TG World’s interest in the Tofkat discovery, which corresponds to 4 mmbbls of net risked potential. Our risked valuation still reflects less than half of the 9 mmbbl net potential that we estimate for the Kuparuk zone alone. More appraisal work is needed, but we believe that regional knowledge of the distribution of the encountered sandstones, combined with the fact that they are oil bearing, sets the stage for appreciable resource potential at Tofkat and the surrounding acreage. As such, we leave our risked valuation unchanged until further drilling is completed.”

Shaw goes on to write “The encountered Kuparuk sand is analogous to the producing reservoir in Conoco’s Nanuq field to the northwest that produces 10,000-11,000 bopd from three long horizontal wells with ~5000-foot horizontal legs within a 10 foot-thick Kuparuk sand. These Kuparuk sands, when encountered, tend to be aerially extensive and range in thickness from 5 feet to greater than 30 feet (e.g., Fiord field). Due to the nature of their deposition, the sands show high net-to gross ratios (i.e. good reservoir quality) and strong lateral connectivity. The prospective area corresponding to the Tofkat discovery is believed to be in the order of 15-20 km2.”



Under the sub title of “North Shore Update: Out from the Ground Came a Bubblin’ Crude,” Shaw writes “During preparatory work for testing of the Sag River zone, field operators have noted oil flowing to surface that appears to be flowing from this secondary target; this could add ~2 mmbbls of upside in the North Shore discovery, effectively doubling the resource potential of North Shore to 4 mmbbls total). The Sag River zone is higher up in the same wellbore that tested 2,092 bopd of light oil from the underlying Ivishak formation earlier this year. We would not expect the Sag River zone to test at rates as high as the Ivishak due to the zone’s less favourable reservoir properties, but a successful test from the zone would add appreciable resource potential to the structure. Testing of the Sag River zone is expected to be completed over the next two weeks, once the rig is moved from Tofkat to North Shore. We carry $0.33/sh in risked NPV for the North Shore area, which assumes gross resource potential of 5 mmbbls. With two additional undrilled structures (labeled as Satellite 1 and 2 in Exhibit 3) having combined resource potential of 3 to 9 mmbbls gross, we see room for upside to our North Shore valuation as the total resource potential of the North Shore cluster could now range from 7 to 13 mmbbls if the pending Sag River test is successful.”

Valuation and Price Target

Shaw reiterates his Speculative Buy rating and $2.10/sh target “in light of encouraging early exploration results from the Tofkat #1 exploration well.” He thinks TG World is undervalued “relative to the appreciable potential of the company’s asset base which we estimate holds $3.21/sh in net risked value (corresponding to 25.5 mmbbls on a net risked basis). After receiving rebates for exploration work carried out over the last 12 months, TG World expects to exit this year with $20-25 million in cash with two discoveries in the company’s asset portfolio. In terms of core value, we carry $0.33/sh (risked) for the North Shore area, ~$0.20/sh in cash, and $0.56/sh (risked) for the Tofkat discovery. We have not graduated the Tofkat discovery to the NPV portion of our model as no oil has been tested, but we consider the risked EMV/sh of Tofkat to be of high quality.”

Furthermore, Shaw advises investors not to overlook the potential in TG World’s 25%-35% interest in the 340,000 acre Alaskan North Slope joint venture. He says “The acreage package has been assembled over the last 9 years and we point out that it would be virtually impossible to assemble an acreage package of this scale and prospectivity today. With prospective acreage surrounding lands where over 20 Bbbls discovered to date on the Alaskan North Slope, high quality partners, at least 10 additional targets identified, and $25 million in cash we believe TG World presents a unique opportunity to gain moderate-risk exposure to a world-class hydrocarbon system in a well-funded company.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Friday, April 11, 2008

Sprott Asset Management – IPO Prospectus

Employment Agreements

Eric Sprott

“We will enter into an employment agreement with Eric Sprott effective on closing of the Offering. Under his employment agreement, Mr. Sprott will be entitled to receive an annual salary of $200,000 as compensation for his services as Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager. Additionally he will be entitled to participate in the Employee Bonus Pool. In the event that Mr. Sprott’s employment is terminated by us without cause, he will be entitled to receive from us two years’ salary and compensation. Mr. Sprott’s employment agreement also provides for, among other things, non-compete and non-solicit covenants in favour of the Company during the term of his employment and during the two-year period following the later of (i) the date he ceases to be a holder of greater than 10% of the then outstanding Common Shares, and (ii) the date his employment is terminated.

Steven Rostowsky

Mr. Rostowsky has a written employment letter agreement pursuant to which he receives an annual salary of $600,000 and is entitled to participate in the Employee Bonus Pool commencing in the second quarter of 2008 at the discretion of management and determined on the basis of a variety of performance factors. Mr. Rostowsky was also entitled to a one-time transition payment of $100,000. In the event Mr. Rostowsky is terminated by the Company without cause, he is entitled to receive six-months written notice or base salary plus one month of written notice or base salary for each full year of employment with SAM, provided that the total notice period or base salary payable shall not exceed 12 months.

Non-Competition and Non-Solicitation Agreements

Certain of our portfolio managers, including Eric Sprott, will enter into non-competition and non-solicitation agreements with us effective on closing of the Offering. The terms of these agreements range from six months to two years (in the case of Mr. Sprott) following termination of employment. Each agreement provides that the portfolio manager shall not solicit any of our employees, consultants, customers or clients nor shall the portfolio manager engage in any undertaking (including employment) in the Province of Ontario, which is the same as or competes with our business during the applicable non-competition and non-solicitation period.

Incentive Plans

Until the end of calendar year 2010, subject to the allocation of Management Fees for 2008 and subject to the review and approval of the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors, we intend to implement a bonus compensation policy providing that an aggregate amount equal to 25% of our Net Operating Income will be allocated to the Employee Bonus Pool, with a further amount of up to 25% of Performance Fees earned to be allocated to the Employee Bonus Pool.

Prior to the closing the Offering, the Company will establish a stock option plan which is intended to aid in attracting, retaining and motivating our officers, employees, directors and consultants. The aggregate number of Common Shares which may be issued from treasury under the Option Plan or reserved for issuance upon the exercise of options under the Option Plan shall not exceed 10% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares from time to time. The number of Common Shares which may be reserved for issuance pursuant to options granted pursuant to the Option Plan to any one person shall not exceed 5% of the then aggregate issued and outstanding Common Shares. The Board of Directors, through the recommendation of the Compensation Committee, will administer the Option Plan and will determine, among other things, optionees, vesting periods, exercise price and other attributes of the options, in each case pursuant to the Option Plan, applicable securities legislation and the rules of the TSX. The exercise price for any option issued under the Plan may not be less than the market price (as defined in the Option Plan) of the Common Shares at the time of issue.

Principal and Selling Shareholders

The following table shows, as of the date of this prospectus, the holdings of the selling shareholders of Sprott and/or their affiliates.”



KEEP IN MIND THE RISK FACTORS – THE PROSPECTUS DEDICATES 14 PAGES TO THE RISKS (CLOSE TO 10% OF THE TOTAL LENGTH OF THE DOCUMENT) SO MAKE SURE TO READ THESE CAREFULLY

My Take: I am going to wait a couple of weeks or even a few months to pick up some shares in Sprott Inc. as there might very well be some clamouring over the IPO that might result in pushing the shares up 20-40%. I figure with the continuing market malaise and volatility, the shares will eventually revert back or close to the IPO price (at least i hope this is the case) and that is when I would like to hit the Buy button. If the shares never do retreat (although I think they will just like what happend with Sprott Resource Corp.[SRC:TSX]), I don't mind higher prices as long as i know that there isint some hype and mania built into the price because hype and mania can disappear very quickly. I see these shares moving up 10-15% annually coupled with dividend, so I think Sprott Inc. would be an ideal candidate to buy and hold for many many years or at least till Mr. Sprott continues to lead the company.

Sprott Asset Management – IPO Prospectus

Event

On April 9, 2008 Sprott Inc. filed a preliminary prospectus for an initial public offering of shares in Sprott Asset Management. The share offering to the public is to be underwritten by a syndicate including the capital-markets divisions of all the big Canadian banks along with Cormark Securities, GMP Securities, Canaccord Capital, Jennings Capital , Paradigm Capital and Clarus Securities.

Details Extracted From IPO Prospectus

Superior Mutual Fund and Alternative Asset Class Performance

Sprott Canadian Equity Fund - Globefund.com’s #1 ranked fund in Canada for its ten-year return of 28.1% (Series A, December 31, 2007)

Sprott’s flagship hedge fund, Sprott Hedge Fund LP, has recorded a 29.23% net annualized return since its November 2000 inception (as at December 31,2007)

Sprott Growth Fund - #1 ranked fund in Globefund’s “Canadian Focused Small/Mid Cap Equity” category

Sprott Opportunities Hedge Fund LP - the top-performing fund in the Canadian-Based Manager category at HFMWeek’s US Performance Awards

Innovative and Diversified Products and Services

21 funds including Canadian public mutual funds, offshore funds and domestic hedge funds

Wealth management for high net worth individuals

Management and administration for public companies

Talented and Aligned Management

Management has $276 million invested in Sprott Funds

No portfolio manager departures since inception

About Sprott Asset Management



“Sprott Asset Management Inc. is an independent asset management company dedicated to achieving superior returns for our clients over the long term. We have a history of offering investment management services to high net worth individuals and institutions for over 26 years. As at February 29, 2008, we managed approximately $6.9 billion in assets among our investment funds and discretionary managed accounts and management of the investments of certain public companies. We derive our revenue principally from management fees earned from the management of our Funds and Managed Accounts and from performance fees earned from the investment performance of the Assets under Management (AUM) of our Funds and Managed Accounts. As of December 31, 2007, we had over 80,000 client accounts with no single client representing more than 2% of AUM. Approximately 95% of our client accounts hold less than $1 million in assets.As at February 29, 2008, of the approximately $6.9 billion in AUM we managed, 99.2% was subject to a Performance Fee component. We have 71 employees and our Adjusted EBITDA grew from $23.4 million in 2003 to $145.8 million in 2007 representing a 58.0% CAGR during that period. We have developed a multi-channel distribution coverage with three distinct efforts: (i) private client network; (ii) financial advisor and dealer channel; and (iii) the offshore fund market. We have an experienced internal sales and marketing department which directly manages our client acquisition and relationship efforts. Our private client base, representing approximately $2.0 billion of AUM, has been developed through direct relationships. Historically, we have had low distribution and selling expenses relative to our revenue in comparison to other Canadian public fund managers.”



Growth Strategies

“We are among the fastest growing investment managers in Canada as we recently experienced net inflows of assets averaging approximately $340 million per quarter over the 12-month period ended December 31, 2007. Our group of Funds has achieved 15 consecutive months of positive net sales to February 29, 2008. Our strategy will continue to include the opportunistic hiring of additional portfolio management talent. During 2007 we established our ‘‘wholesaler’’ sales effort in order to further support our Fund sales to the retail financial advisor and dealer industry. We currently have ten sales representatives (six retail and four wholesale) and expect to continue to expand this team. We believe that our track record and reputation as an innovator provide a unique base for the launch of new investment products. These new products may feature sector-specific themes and will be sold either through the investment dealer channel or globally using our existing direct sales force. Global funds, large cap funds, all cap funds and new specialty funds are just a few examples of products that we could add to our existing offerings. Through our management of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation (‘‘Sprott Moly’’) and the management of Sprott Resource Corp. (‘‘Sprott Resource’’) by Sprott Consulting L.P. (‘‘Sprott Consulting’’), we have introduced into our business operations the concept of providing management and administrative services to public companies. Sprott Consulting provides management personnel and services to these companies in exchange for fees very similar to our traditional Fund Management Fees and Performance Fees. Sprott Moly and Sprott Resource combined currently represent approximately $295 million of AUM and we expect that both companies will acquire more assets in the future. We believe Sprott Consulting offers us the opportunity to manage corporate assets on a ‘‘permanent’’ basis and to enter into the marketplace for private equity style investments as well as participate as manager in corporate transactions. We believe that becoming a public company will assist us in maintaining and expanding our position as a leading asset manager in several ways. Becoming a public company should result in an increase in public awareness of our business and assist us with our goals of reaching new potential Fund investors and continuing to increase our AUM. We believe that a public listing will also increase our ability to provide attractive financial incentives to our existing and future employees through the use of share-based compensation arrangements. In the highly competitive market for investment professional talent, having a public listing will provide us with a valuable additional compensation tool. Finally, a public listing will provide us with greater flexibility in using our share capital to finance future strategic acquisitions should attractive opportunities arise.”

The Offering

There will be 150,000,000 Common Shares (after giving effect to the Reorganization). The Offering is comprised solely of a secondary offering by the Selling Shareholders. The Company will not receive any proceeds from the sale of the Common Shares by the Selling Shareholders pursuant to the Offering, including the Over-Allotment Option. (No specifics provided on the number of additional shares or the price). Prior to the closing of the Offering, each director and executive officer of the Company as well as each of our Portfolio Managers, Market Strategists and Investment Strategists will enter into an escrow agreement with the Company and Equity Transfer & Trust Company, and will deposit into escrow all of their Common Shares of the Company which are not sold in the Offering to demonstrate their continuing commitment to the Company. One-third of the Common Shares held by each of the Management Shareholders shall be released on each of the first three anniversaries of closing. Notwithstanding the foregoing, all Common Shares belonging to a Management Shareholder will be released from escrow upon the death, permanent disability, voluntary retirement (except in the case of Eric Sprott), or involuntary termination (other than for cause) of that holder or upon a change of control of the Company.

Allocation of Management and Performance Fees

“Net Operating Income’’ is the measure that we use to determine the Management and discretionary base bonus amount for our employee bonus pool and is equal to the difference between (i) Management Fees and (ii) operating expenses (consisting of trailer fees, salaries and benefits (other than discretionary bonuses), occupancy, general and administrative and business development expenses). Net Operating Income for the period ending on the last day of the month prior to the Closing Date (the ‘‘Pre-IPO Period’’) will be allocated to the SAM Shareholders and other employees of SAM and will be allocated and paid to such shareholders and employees by way of bonus and/or dividend subject to maintaining not less than $50 million of shareholders equity in the Company as at the closing of the Offering. All Net Operating Income for the balance of 2008 and until the end of 2010 will be subject to an annual allocation of 25% to the Employee Bonus Pool.

Dividend Policy

“The Company expects that the Board of Directors will declare, and the Company will pay, quarterly dividends on its Common Shares (no specifics on the amount) per Common Share (being 1% of the Offering Price per annum) with the first such dividend expected to be declared and paid in respect of the quarter ending 2008 In addition, the Company expects that the Board of Directors will annually declare a special dividend on each of its Common Shares following receipt of Performance Fees, if any.”

Financial Information

“In 2006, we established a credit facility in the amount of $25 million with a Canadian chartered bank. The facility was amended in June 2007 to increase the amount to $35 million and further amended in April 2008 to amend certain covenants such that the facility requires a minimum Tangible Net Worth (as defined in the facility) of $40 million and no longer requires that our net income exceed a specified amount (see notes 8 and 15 to the Consolidated Financial Statements of SAM elsewhere in this prospectus). The facility was established to create a readily available resource of funds if daily operations required short term financing and will remain in place after the Offering. To date, the use of the facility has been minimal. As at the date hereof, no amount is outstanding under this facility.”

Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2007 Compared to Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2006



“As a result of an increase in AUM coupled with strong relative performance in certain of our Funds, both Performance Fees and Management Fees increased during the year. Management Fees increased from $79.3 million to $108.0 million, or approximately 36%, due to the increase in our AUM from approximately $4.2 billion as at December 31, 2006 to approximately $6.2 billion as at December 31, 2007. Performance fees increased from $86.5 million to $129.2 million, an increase of approximately 49.4%. Income before income taxes increased from $42.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2006 to $52.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2007 as total expenses increased by $18.9 million while revenues rose by $29 million. Net income increased from $34.8 million in 2006 to $42.3 million in 2007, with income tax expense equal to approximately 18% to 19% of pre-tax income in both years. The effective tax rate of 18% to 19% is lower than the statutory tax rate of 36% primarily because a portion of the Performance Fees we earned was in the form of limited partnership income. EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2007 was $54.3 million, an increase of $11.2 million or 26.1% over the year ended December 31, 2006. Adjusted Base EBITDA increased by 25.0% from $39.2 million in 2006 to $48.9 million in 2007. Adjusted Base EBITDA demonstrates growth in AUM and the related growth in Management Fees. Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2007 was $145.8 million, an increase of $41.8 million or 40.2% over the year ended December 31, 2006. The increase in Adjusted EBITDA resulted from an increase in both Management Fees and Performance Fees.

Proprietary investments generated a loss (realized and unrealized) of $4.2 million in 2007, as compared to a gain of $31.1 million in 2006. The decrease was a combination of market value declines as well as, for investments denominated in U.S. dollars, the effect of the strengthening Canadian dollar relative to the
U.S. dollar throughout 2007.

An unrealized loss of $7.5 million resulted from a write down in the value of oil and gas properties held by one of our wholly-owned subsidiaries. The subsidiary will be disposed of prior to the closing of the Offering, thereby eliminating the risk of future declines in the value of these properties.

Other income earned in 2007 amounted to $2.1 million, as compared to $1.7 million in 2006, and consisted primarily of interest revenues and early redemption fees.

Trailer fees increased by $6.9 million or 39.4% from $17.5 million in 2006 to $24.4 million in 2007. Trailer fees as a percentage of Management Fees remained consistent at approximately 22% to 23%.

Total expenses increased by $18.9 million or 12% from $156.3 million in 2006 to $175.2 million in 2007. There were several key contributing factors. Of the increase, $7.2 million or 38% was due to higher base payroll costs driven by an increase in the number of employees, from 41 at the end of 2006 to 62 at the end of 2007 as well as severance paid to certain departing employees during the year. Trailer fees accounted for 37% of the increase. The balance of the change was primarily related to costs associated with the growth in the size of our business, including higher marketing, rent, general and administration costs, charitable donations and interest expense.”

Management of the Company



Jack C. Lee

“Mr. Lee has over 35 years experience in the oil and gas industry. He is currently Vice Chairman of Penn West Energy Trust the largest conventional oil and gas trust in Canada with current production of approximately 200,000 boepd. Prior thereto Mr. Lee was Chairman of Canetic Resources Trust and President and Chief Executive Officer of Acclaim Energy Inc., a predecessor of Canetic, and prior thereto President and Chief Executive Officer of Danoil Energy Ltd, a predecessor of Acclaim. He participated in the start up of Gane Energy Ltd, a predecessor to Northstar Energy Ltd, and was President and CEO. In 1994, he co-founded Independent Energy Inc. Mr. Lee is also a director of Ithaca Energy Inc., a public oil and gas company, and Darian Resources Ltd. and Gryphon Petroleum Corp., private oil and gas companies.

Mark McCain

Mr. McCain has been a private investor through Bulawayo Holdings Inc. since September 2006. Prior to that Mr. McCain was a Business Analyst with McCain Foods Ltd. since March 1998. Mr. McCain has been a director of McCain Foods Ltd. for the past eight years and a director of the McCain Foods Group Inc. for over ten years.

James T. Roddy

Mr. Roddy has held a number of senior positions and directorships with companies in various industries. He served as President and CEO and Director of Ontario Bus Industries Inc. in 1994, and from 1989 to 1993 was President and Chief Operating Officer and Director of Slater Industries Inc. From 1985 to 1989 he held various positions with Campeau Corporation, including President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer and Director, and served in the roles of Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer and Director of Peoples Jewellers Limited between 1967 and 1984. Mr. Roddy has also held directorships with numerous public and not-for-profit corporations including Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation. He received his Chartered Accountant designation in 1967.

Ian W. Telfer

Mr. Telfer is currently Chairman of Goldcorp Inc., and was Chief Executive Officer and President of Goldcorp Inc. prior to November 2006 and Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. prior to its merger with Goldcorp in February/March 2005. Mr. Telfer is also the Chairman of Uranium One Inc. and has over 25 years experience as an executive in the mining industry.

Steven Rostowsky
Mr. Rostowsky joined the Company in March 2008 as the Chief Financial Officer. Prior to that, he was Senior Vice-President, Finance & Administration at the IDA. As a member of the IDA’s senior management team, Mr. Rostowsky had responsibility for non-regulatory functional areas including Finance, Human Resources, Information Technology and the Association Secretary. Prior to joining the IDA in January 2005, Mr. Rostowsky was Chief Financial Officer and Chief Compliance Officer of Guardian Group of Funds (‘‘GGOF’’) since July 2001 when GGOF was acquired by Bank of Montreal. At that time he was Vice-President, Finance for Guardian Capital Group, GGOF’s former parent company. Mr. Rostowsky is a Chartered Accountant and a Chartered Financial Analyst, and holds a Bachelor of Business Science (Finance) and a post-graduate accounting degree, both from the University of Cape Town, South Africa.

Kirstin McTaggart

Ms. McTaggart joined SAM in April 2003 as a compliance officer and is currently the Chief Compliance Officer of SAM. Prior to April 2003, Ms. McTaggart spent five years as a Senior Manager at Trimark Investment Management Inc., where her focus was the development of formal compliance and internal control policies and procedures. Ms. McTaggart has accumulated over 21 years of experience in the financial and investment industry.

James Fox

Mr. Fox joined SAM as an Associate in June 1999 and became the Head of Sales in September 2004. Mr. Fox is involved in the research, sales and business development activities of SAM. Mr. Fox graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in Finance and Economics from the University of Western Ontario in 1996 and a Master of Business Administration from the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto in 1999.

Scott Dexter

Mr. Dexter joined SAM as a Senior Equity Trader in April 2005. Mr. Dexter has over 12years of experience in equities trading. Mr. Dexter who, prior to April 2005, was a proprietary Trader at Acker Finley Inc. and, prior to November 2000, was an Institutional Equities Trader covering hedge funds, pension funds and mutual funds at Sprott Securities Inc. Mr. Dexter graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Hamilton College in 1992.”

Remuneration of Directors

“Each independent member of the Board of Directors will be paid such remuneration for their services as the Board of Directors may, from time to time, determine. Until otherwise determined, such compensation will be $50,000 per year for each independent director plus $1,500 per attended meeting of the Board of Directors and committees of the Board of Directors. The Company will also reimburse all members of the Board of Directors for out-of-pocket expenses for attending such meetings. In addition, the Chair of the Audit Committee is entitled to an annual retainer fee of $20,000 and the Chair of each of the Compensation Committee and the Corporate Governance and Nominating Committee are entitled to an annual retainer fee of $5,000. The Lead Director is entitled to an annual retainer fee of $30,000. The Company intends to purchase liability insurance for the directors and officers of the Company prior to the closing of the Offering.”

More Details To Follow ...

To download the prospectus, click here

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Buy, Sell or Hold Pacific Rubiales Energy (PEG: TSX)

On April 9th/08 Canaccord Adams analyst Frederick Kozak provided an update on Pacific Rubiales Energy (PEG: TSX)



Company Profile

Pacific Rubiales, a Canadian-based company and producer of natural gas and heavy crude oil, owns 100 percent of Meta Petroleum Limited, a Colombian oil operator which operates the Rubiales and Piriri oil fields in the Llanos Basin in association with Ecopetrol S.A. the Colombian, national oil company. The Company is focused on identifying opportunities primarily within the eastern Llanos Basin of Colombia as well as in other areas in Colombia and northern Peru. Pacific Rubiales has a current net production of approximately 19,050 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with working interests in the Rubiales, Piriri and Quifa concessions and the Caguan, Dindal, Rio Seco, Puli B, La Creciente, Moriche, Guama, Arauca, Tacacho and Jagueyes blocks in Colombia and blocks 135, 137 and 138 in Peru.

Event

In a note entitled “POSITIVE RUBIALES DRILLING UPDATE; MAINTAINING RATING AND TARGET PRICE” Kozak explains the reasons behind his Buy rating and target price of C$2.35

Takeaways From The Event

In responding to an April 8, 2008 drilling update on Pacific Rubiales’s La Creciente and the Rubiales field, Kozak writes “The company recently completed the RB-53 exploration well at the Rubiales field which encountered 22 feet of pay zone and initially produced 167 bbl/d of oil. Additionally, the company recently spudded the LCE-1 exploration well at La Creciente. The recently-completed RB-53 exploration well at the Rubiales Field was located in the northern portion of the field as shown in the map in Figure 1. It is situated 6 km from the RB-14 well, which is located outside the limits of the commercial field. The RB-53 well encountered 22 feet of pay zone and initially produced 167 bbl/d with a 41% water-cut. Management’s seismic interpretation, shown in the figure above, had postulated an extension beyond RB-14 in the direction of RB-53. This successful well continues to confirm the technical team’s interpretation of the Rubiales field and supports further reserve potential for the Rubiales field as well as supporting future development as the company drives towards 126,000 bbl/d from the Rubiales area. The impact on Pacific Rubiales is positive as the extension of the field will result in an increase to the firm’s established reserve base in the area. The company will now be able to request from Ecopetrol the assignment of an additional commercial area of the Rubiales field. Recall that Pacific Rubiales also extended the field boundaries to the southwest in February 2008 with the drilling of the RB-51 well. This confirms a new development area of the field for future horizontal drilling and will result in new proven plus probable reserves being assigned to the Rubiales field.



The company has now spudded the LCE-1 well at La Creciente (April 6) which is expected to take approximately 50 days to reach total depth. The well is located on the southwest portion of the Block and will be targeting the Cienaga de Oro reservoir at Prospect "E". Prospect "E" is the third structure to be drilled on the Block with Prospects "A" and "D" already successful. Pacific Rubiales has also temporarily suspended the drilling of the LCA-2ST (side track from LCA-2) as approvals are required for a new oil-based mud to be used to overcome drilling difficult issues. Pacific Rubiales currently produces approximately 35 mmcf/d under contract from La Creciente and will increase the production to 55 mmcf/d on July 1 when new take-away capacity is commissioned.”

Catalysts

Kozak mentions that the next near term catalysts would be “drilling results from La Creciente. The LCE-1 well is now being drilled and is expected to hit total depth by mid to late May. Additionally, the side track on the La Creciente A structure is also being drilled. Both of these results will provide positive catalysts to the company as it builds a significant gas project in Colombia.

Valuation and Price Target

Mestres bases his target price on a sum of the parts valuation of Pacific Rubiales. He writes “Because the merger between the predecessor companies did not close until January 2008 there is no consolidated reporting. The following table shows the estimated Net Asset Value on an after tax basis attributable to the Rubiales field. The value of the company’s working capital has been added to this calculation.”



Additionally, he writes “Pacific Rubiales has an important element of exploration upside in the company. The company has exposure to a number of exploration blocks in Colombia as well as three exploration blocks in Peru. On a risked basis, we tabulate the company’s upside potential as shown below:”



Lastly, he mentions “there remains even more upside to the company that
we have not included in the preceding analysis. Should Pacific Rubiales receive a contract extension for the Rubiales field from 2016 to 2022, this would be worth approximately $1.0 billion. We note however, that Pacific Rubiales is unlikely to receive this entire value bump, as in order to obtain the incremental value it is likely that additional consideration would have to be payable to the Colombian government.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Thursday, April 10, 2008

TDK Resource Fund - Annual Management Report of Fund Performance for 2007

TDK Resource Fund - Annual Management Report of Fund Performance for 2007





Fund Profile

TDK Resource Fund invests primarily in equities of Canadian natural resource companies, including, for example, those engaged in mining, oil and gas, forest products,water resources and fishing, and those companies that support such industries.The Fund is managed by Wayne Deans of Deans Knight Capital Management Ltd. As of 2007, The TDK Resource Fund reported a 36.86 per cent average annual return for the past three years (See this news release) and averaged a 33.56 per cent return since the fund was launched six years ago. This is the reason behind why the fund won the Lipper award for the Best Resource Fund over Three and Five Years.

Commentary

In their annual management report of fund performance for 2007 (which is posted on SEDAR.com as of March 31, 2008), fund manager Wayne Deans of Deans Knight Capital Management notes:

“that during 2007, oil prices were near record highs, and closed the year at $96 U.S. per barrel. Deans Knight believes that due to a lack of new oil discoveries, oil prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future and consequently feels that now is not an opportune time to invest in the oil industry. Conversely, Deans Knight believes that the North American natural gas market represents good investment value. The natural gas market is faced with record storage levels, due to the warmest year on record in 2006, increased U.S. domestic gas production, and increased liquid natural gas imports into the U.S. With ample supply, natural gas prices remained soft throughout 2007. Canadian natural gas prices averaged $6.45 CAD per thousand cubic feet in 2007, which compares to $6.54 per mcf in 2006 and $8.78 per mcf in 2005.

This downward trend in pricing has led a number of investors to sell their natural gas positions, pushing valuations of Canadian natural gas producers down to levels Deans Knight has not seen in seven years – Deans Knight believes that this represents a buying opportunity. Today, Canadian natural gas companies, led by experienced management teams, can be purchased for 3 to 4 times depressed cash flows, or less than their net asset value. The last time valuations were this low was at the bottom of the commodities cycle in 1999/2000. Investors can now purchase stock of natural gas companies for half the price they were trading at two years ago and in many cases these same companies have doubled their production over the same time period.

With company valuations as low as they have been, Deans Knight believes that it would only take a small improvement in the current business environment to improve profitability for natural gas producers and that these improvements have already begun. In 2007, as a reaction to low natural gas prices, companies began drilling fewer wells. In 2007, the industry drilled approximately 18,300 wells, compared to 23,000 in 2006 and 24,800 in 2005. This is a five year low for drilling activity, and drilling costs are now declining as a result. Deans Knight believes this will eventually lead to improved margins for natural gas producers.

As a reaction to the Alberta Government’s decision to increase royalty rates, two major Canadian energy producers shifted a significant portion of their 2008 capital budgets away from Alberta. EnCana Corporation announced they would cut spending in Alberta by $500 million, and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. announced they would be lowering their spending in Alberta by approximately $650 million in 2008. These are the two most active drillers in Canada. This reduction in drilling activity will not only continue to put downward pricing pressure on drilling and service costs, it will also lead to a decline in natural gas production. Lower production will ultimately lead to stronger natural gas prices.

Deans Knight feels that it is difficult to say if we are at the bottom of the cycle, but that it is hard to imagine things getting worse for the natural gas industry. Buying natural gas producers today at 3 to 4 times depressed cash flows looks to be a good investment opportunity. The following company descriptions are included to illustrate the development of the Fund’s portfolio holdings.
Crew Energy Inc. (CR: TSX) is a natural gas producer with production in both Alberta and British Columbia. Crew exited 2007 producing approximately 11,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (“boepd”) (85% natural gas). During the third quarter, when natural gas prices averaged $5.85 CAD per mcf Crew’s netbacks were approximately $28 CAD per boepd. Assuming Crew simply maintains production at 11,500 boepd for 2008, and their netbacks remain unchanged, Crew would have cash flow of $118 million. Crew’s stock ended the year at $7.23 per share, which valued it at less than 4 times cash flow. With the possible turn around in the natural gas market, Deans Knight believes this is an undervalued stock. (3.6% of the Fund)

Niko Resources Limited (NKO: TSX) is a natural gas producer in India. In the past two years Niko and its partner Reliance Industries (a major Indian company) have made major gas discoveries off the east coast of India. They will be bringing the first of these discoveries (called D6) into production at the end of 2008. It is anticipated that most of the discovered natural gas to date will be brought into production by the end of 2009. Based on current sales contracts this will result in cash flow of approximately $1 billion in 2010 and $1.5 billion in 2011. This is meaningful to Niko as its market capitalization is only $4 billion. In addition, Niko will be drilling some of their largest exploration targets in 2008. If successful, Niko should add significant value to the Fund. (5.9% of the Fund)

West Energy Ltd. (WTL: TSX) is a natural gas producer. West has seen its stock decline by 58% in 2007, despite production rising by 85% to 5,000 boepd at the end of 2007. West has struggled over the past two years with its business due to the complex nature of its reservoirs and the competition in the area. This has created negative investor sentiment towards West, despite a number of these issues being resolved. In addition, West was particularly impacted by the Alberta government’s royalty changes, as it proposed a much higher royalty rate on high productivity oil wells, which is exactly what West produces. As a result of all the bad news, investors have sold this stock. During the third quarter, when oil averaged just over $70 U.S. a barrel, West had a netback of $41 CAD per barrel. Assuming they can maintain their 5,000 boepd for 2008, West will have cash flows of $75 million. At the year end stock price of $2.30, West is trading at 2.5 times cash flow. In addition, West has no debt and has a number of prospects to drill in 2008 that could add significant value. (2.0% of the Fund)

Trafalgar Energy Limited (TFL: TSX) is focused on producing natural gas in the Gouard and MacKay areas in Alberta. It has 95,000 net acres of land and currently produces 1,000 boepd. Based on the upcoming year’s drilling program Trafalgar expects production to average 1,275 boepd in 2008. Using a $6 per mcf gas price, Deans Knight expects that Trafalgar will generate cash flow of approximately $10 million in 2008. Based on Trafalgar’s year end stock price of $2.80, it is trading at less than 4 times cash flow and should represent good investment value. (1.5% of the portfolio)

Buy, Sell or Hold Bear Creek Mining (BCM: TSX-V)

On April 8th/08 Canaccord Adams analyst Toni Wallis provided an update on Bear Creek Mining (BCM: TSX-V)



Company Profile

Bear Creek Mining is a Vancouver-based junior exploration company focused on precious metal projects in Peru. The primary focus is on the bulk tonnage silver deposits at Corani and Santa Ana in southern Peru. Current resource at Corani is at 361.9 million ounces of Measured, Indicated and Inferred silver resource. Indicated and Inferred resource for Santa Ana is 90.8 million ounces of silver.

Event

In a note entitled “SANTA ANA MINERALIZATION EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH OUTSIDE DEFINED RESOURCE AREA” Wallis explains the reasons behind her Speculative Buy rating and target price of C$13.50

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to an April 7th/08 announcement from Bear Creek that reported results from 32 drill holes on its Santa Ana project, Wallis writes “Drilling completed to date on the Santa Ana project totals 29,578 metres in 165 drill holes. The drill results announced yesterday were from 32 holes that were mostly infill holes within the defined resource area, with 17 holes being drilled on a 500 metre east-west line across the south-central part of the resource area to better delineate the high-grade zones. These 17 holes include some very high-grade intersections with 148 metres grading 166g/t Ag, 1.4% Pb and 1.8% Zn, in Hole SA-66A on the western side of the resource area, and 100 metres grading 41.3 g/t Ag in Hole Sa-77 on the eastern side of the resource area. Hole SA-81, drilled on the northwest side of the resource area at approximately 550 metres north of Hole SA-66A, intersected 24 metres grading 269.6 g/t Ag including 4.0 metres grading 1,532 g/tAg, 2.9%Pb and 3.2% Zn. On the Santa Ana resource area, a second line of infill drilling at 25 x50 metre centres is planned approximately 200 metres south of line from which results were announced yesterday. These lines of drilling will better define the pit limits for the prefeasibility study. Two drills are continuing on the resource area with the ongoing close-spaced drilling to upgrade more of the inferred Resource to the Indicated category. The Santa Ana mineralization remains open in all directions, and appears to widen to the southwest. An updated resource for Santa Ana is expected in Q3/08.

In addition, sampling at 750 metres to the southwest of the defined resource area, on an area that has Colonial era mine dumps with ruby-silver (pyrargyrite) and coarse grained sphalerite, has outlined a new zone of mineralization over a 220 metre width. This new zone is defined as an extension to the southwest of the mineralized zone not included in the resource area that was outlined by Holes 51, 52, 55 and 57. This new zone trends south west and expands in width at approximately 500 metres southwest of Hole 51, with the zone having northeast trending structures similar to those now defined in the current resource area. A third drill was added on the new south target on March 31, 2008, and the first hole of an initial six drill hole program is in progress.”



Providing some background on Bear Creek, Wallis writes “Bear Creek Mining is a Vancouver-based junior exploration company under the stewardship of Andrew Swarthout, President, and David Volkert, VP Exploration, with Catherine McLeod-Seltzer as Chairman. Bear Creek is focused on precious metal bulk tonnage open pit prospects in Peru with the Corani project as the most advanced project in its portfolio. The second key prospect held by the company within the same Tertiary-age precious metals belt is the volcanic hosted epithermal silver-lead-zinc Santa Ana property in southern Peru at 120 kilometres south of Puno. The company’s largest shareholder is Silver Wheaton Corp. with 18% of the current issued capital at October 3, 2007. On March 7, Bear Creek announced that it had entered into an agreement with Rio Tinto to purchase Rio Tinto's remaining 30% interest in the Corani project and extinguish all of Bear Creek's future payment obligations, royalties and Rio Tinto's back-in rights under the existing option agreement. Bear Creek has been exploring at Santa Ana since late 2005, and in January 2008 announced an initial resource estimate for the Santa Ana silver deposit with 29.8 million ounces of silver in an Indicated Resource contained within 21.0 million tonnes grading 44 g/t Ag, and for 61.0 million ounces silver in the Inferred Resources category contained in 42.0 million tonnes grading 45g/t Ag. The Santa Ana resource is being reviewed as an open pit mining scenario with processing by heap leaching with initial recoveries estimated at 65% silver and no recovery of lead and zinc in the heap leach. The stripping ratio is expected to be approximately 1.8:1.”

Valuation and Price Target

After analyzing the results from the 32 drill holes, Wallis maintains her Speculative Buy recommendation. However, she adds “Prefeasibility work is ongoing at Corani, with environmental studies and ongoing additional studies on the power and transportation of concentrates to the main port city of Matarani near Arequipa. Bear Creek Mining continues to expand the resource base at its 100%-owned Santa Ana project and, based on the results reported yesterday, may have discovered a second subparallel zone 750 metres to the south of the currently defined resource outline. We have defined our target valuing Corani as 100%-owned by Bear Creek with NPV (5%) at US$497.7 million. We have added the in situ value for the 100%-owned Santa Ana asset of US$120.74 million. We have not added any component of current working capital as the company has indicated that the majority of these funds will be required for payment to Rio Tinto and for ongoing exploration, development and prefeasibility study preparation through 2008.We have applied a 1.1 times multiple to the valuation as the company continues to expand the resource through the ongoing expanded drilling at Santa Ana.”



Wallis values the company’s assets using “Canaccord Adams’ Q1/08 commodity and
currency forecasts, and applied these to the 100% ownership of Corani with long-term
prices of US$12.50 for silver, US$0.75 for zinc and US$0.50 for lead. With the resource announced in January of 29.8 million ounces of indicated silver resource and 61.0 million ounces of inferred silver resource, we derive 1.82 million ounces gold equivalent to which we have applied Canaccord Adams’ in situ value for indicated resource of US$95.00/oz Au and inferred gold resource of US$55.0 per ounce to derive a value of US$120.74 million.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Private Placement – Medoro Resources (MRS: TSX-V)

Official Website: http://www.medororesources.com/



Company Profile

Medoro Resources is a gold exploration and development company focused on acquiring properties of merit for potential joint ventures with senior producers. The company holds a 100% interest in the Lo Increible 4A and 4B concessions in Venezuela and interests in eleven gold exploration areas in the Republic of Mali.

Event

On April 4, 2008, the TSX Venture Daily Bulletin reported that it had accepted for filing documentation with respect to a Brokered Private Placement announced March 6, 2008 by Medoro Resources.

Number of Shares: 30,810,000 shares

Purchase Price: $0.40 per share

Warrants: 15,405,000 share purchase warrants to purchase 15,405,000 shares

Warrant Exercise Price: $0.60 for a two year period

Number of Placees: 27 placees

Participants:

Eugene McBurney for 1,250,000 shares
Peter Volk for 25,000 shares

About Participants

Eugene C. McBurney, MA, LLB is co-founder of GMP's predecessor, Griffiths McBurney & Partners. He is currently the Chairman of GMP Securities, an investment dealer with a penchant for doing natural resource deals. Eugene did his first mining deal in 1983 and today GMP raises hundreds of millions of dollars for resource companies annually. Prior to GMP, Gene practised securities law and advised many companies and investment dealers in a variety of investment banking assignments.

Peter Volk is General Counsel and Secretary to Medoro Resources. Previously he was General Counsel and Secretary Bolivar Gold Corp. Mr. Volk worked in the Securities Group at Blake, Cassels & Graydon and at Anderson Mori, Japan's largest law firm.

Buy, Sell or Hold Ithaca Energy (IAE: TSX-V)

On April 8th/08 RBC Capital Markets analyst David Mestres initiated coverage on Ithaca Energy (IAE: TSX-V)



Company Profile

Ithaca Energy is a Canadian oil and gas exploration and development company with offices in Calgary, Canada, London, England and Aberdeen, Scotland, which is focused on the exploration and development of oil and gas reserves in the North Sea on the United Kingdom’s Continental Shelf. Ithaca has built a diversified portfolio of exploration and development assets through participation in the United Kingdom’s recent Seaward licensing rounds and through acquisitions. This diversity is evidenced by properties in different geographic areas, encompassing multiple play types (both oil and gas), while maintaining a close proximity to producing fields in proven petroleum systems. Ithaca’s interests range from 20% to 100% in 30 blocks or partial blocks under 16 licences.

Company Profile

Ithaca Energy is a Canadian oil and gas exploration and development company with offices in Calgary, Canada, London, England and Aberdeen, Scotland, which is focused on the exploration and development of oil and gas reserves in the North Sea on the United Kingdom’s Continental Shelf. Ithaca has built a diversified portfolio of exploration and development assets through participation in the United Kingdom’s recent Seaward licensing rounds and through acquisitions. This diversity is evidenced by properties in different geographic areas, encompassing multiple play types (both oil and gas), while maintaining a close proximity to producing fields in proven petroleum systems. Ithaca’s interests range from 20% to 100% in 30 blocks or partial blocks under 16 licences.



Ithaca’s assets

“The Central North Sea (“CNS”)

The Central North Sea is the ‘oily’ part of Ithaca’s portfolio, and here Ithaca is concentrating on a production hub (Beatrice), a separate development project (Athena) and several exploration prospects close to infrastructure.

The Beatrice hub

Ithaca had acreage around the 100% Talisman-owned Beatrice field, and acquired this field (with associated infrastructure) in 2007 for US$20 million. In this way Ithaca has established a core hub area based around Beatrice and over which it intends to redevelop Beatrice Bravo and to develop its nearby discoveries (Jacky and, possibly, Polly). The Beatrice field comes with a platform, a dedicated pipeline to shore, and storage tanks at the onshore Nigg terminal. Talisman has retained the abandonment obligations and remains involved in the offshore windfarm that supplies energy to the Beatrice facilities.
The Beatrice platform currently produces some 1,800bopd and Ithaca aims to increase this to some 3,000bopd by upgrading the Beatrice facilities and by re-activating the Beatrice Bravo area. Ithaca also has two further nearby discoveries: Jacky (for which an FDP application has been submitted and which it expects onstream in 4Q 2008 at a rate of 5-10,000bopd) and the marginal Polly discovery (currently under review). We have assumed some 3 mmbbls gross for our valuation and its effect on our NAV is some 3%.

The Athena discovery

The Athena discovery lies in the Outer Moray Firth some 20kms from the processing and transportation facilities of the Claymore field. Ithaca has equity in three blocks; Athena – although mainly in Block 14/18b – crosses all three of them. Ithaca owns 100% of Block 14/17b, 70% of Block 14/18b and 100% of Block 14/18c. An independent resource assessment identified Athena 2P gross resources of some 28 mmbbls (19.6 mmbbls net to Ithaca) and the company is in discussions with Talisman about processing of production over, and transportation from, Talisman’s Claymore field. The Athena field itself has – according to Ithaca’s estimates – potential for a further 50 mmbbls gross upside – 35 mmbbls net – both to the NE and to the South of the current Athena outline. The company is currently testing some of this upside, and we expect results to be announced imminently. The Athena area still appears to be highly prospective. A number of small accumulations have been identified nearby, including in areas where Ithaca has a 100% equity interests. These could, if successful and in due course, be tied back to any Athena development. The main determinant of ultimately recoverable volumes (and value) will be the discussions with the Claymore owners. These are large structures, with concomitantly large OPEX costs, and over which the operator (Talisman) is encouraging all possible production in a bid to both reduce unit OPEX costs and stave off abandonment. Whilst third-party business over these host structures is still currently subject to tariffs, a move to OPEX-sharing (likely in due course) could hurt the smaller fields and lead to their earlier abandonment. In our valuation we have therefore truncated production from Athena in 2021; a bigger project might allow Ithaca to develop the area differently (for instance, with an FPSO) and could represent additional (unquantified) upside to our valuation. Ithaca funded the first exploration well on Athena by means of a loan from the Gemini Oil and Gas Fund II, LP (“Gemini”) under the terms of which Gemini is entitled to an over-riding royalty interest (“ORRI”) of all Athena production. Ithaca has the right to buy Gemini’s ORRI in exchange for between US$7.5-US$10 million and 3 million warrants; our valuation suggests that Ithaca should exercise this option in due course and we have valued the company on the basis of it being exercised.

Triton and Poseidon

Triton and Poseidon are two prospects to the north of, and parallel to, the Captain field. Both Triton and Poseidon are proposed by the company to be analogous to the Buzzard Field and third-party reserve assessments bear this out: Triton is assessed as having best estimate resources of some 100mmbo and Poseidon as 150mmbo. Estimates vary considerably (from 50-400mmbo per prospect), reflecting the uncertainty that surrounds them. Ithaca plans to drill Triton in 2009 and it may decide to farm-down its share (and exposure) before then.

The Barbara Area

The Barbara field extends across three blocks, and will need to be unitized before development. Ithaca owns a 20% share in one of the blocks (23/16c) and expects its post-unitisation equity in the field to be some 6-7%; with gross resources of between 72bcf (as per Sproule) and 125bcf (partner view); this would equate to an equity gas resource of 5 – 8.5bcf. Current plans by the operator, Dana, tentatively envisage first gas in late 2009/ early 2010, assuming FDP submission in late 2008. Barbara also extends into Block 23/16b, which was split horizontally and then split again to isolate the Barbara field. Ithaca owns 100% equity in the lowermost subdivision, where a number of additional Jurassic prospects have been identified In general, we see this area as one with a number of acquisition opportunities for Ithaca (the area appears immaterial to the likes of Shell and ExxonMobil) but also as one where Ithaca could as easily divest its interests as grow them. New partners might lead to a realignment of equities in the various parts of the block but – other than to value Barbara – it is too early to tell how Ithaca’s position in the block may develop (we have not attributed any value to these at this stage because of the level of uncertainty as to the area development).

The Zeus Area

The Zeus area provides Ithaca with some additional CNS exploration (at 100%), with three identified prospects (Zeus, Metis and Aris). Gaffney Cline estimates that these may together contain some 80mmboe potential resources, but the company apparently has no intention of pursuing them further in 2008 and may opt instead to either farm-out to someone else in order to accelerate the exploration or to delay them to 2009.

The Southern North Sea (“SNS”)

The Southern North Sea is the ‘gassy’ part of Ithaca’s portfolio, and here Ithaca is concentrating on a “NW Core” (in blocks 42, 43 and 48), and a “SE Core” (in blocks 49, 50 and 53). Whilst the main focus is on the CNS, the SNS has a longer-term potential to add gas exposure to what currently is an oil-biased portfolio.

The SE Core

Of the two areas, the SE Core is a longer-term opportunity, and one that is spread across blocks 53/4c, 53/3f, 53/3e, 50/26c and 49/29c (all at 100%). The company is reviewing a number of gas prospects but has no additional work plans in this area for 2008.

The NW Core

The main area of Ithaca activity in the SNS during 2008 will be the NW Core, where the company will participate in the drilling of the Carna (40%) and Morpheus (34%) prospects. This is obligation drilling, which Ithaca and its partners (now Dana, Venture and Tullow in Morpheus, and Venture in Carna) committed to as part of the licencing terms. Both prospects lie in an area that is generally characterized by a number of gas pools, nearby infrastructure and relatively low well density (the blocks have been relatively under-explored). The ‘Carna Area’ lies to the North of the Ravenspurn gas field, whilst the ‘Morpheus Area’ lies to the SE of it. Both areas have the potential for repeatability: five prospects (including Morpheus) have been identified in the ‘Morpheus Area’ and a further 10 (of which one is Carna, and the other is an actual discovery) in the ‘Carna Area’. In total, Ithaca estimates that the prospects identified have best estimate gross unrisked resource potential of some 700-900bcf, of which 90-115bcf would lie in Carna and a further 200-250bcf would lie in Morpheus. An independent reserves assessment risked these prospects at 11% - 22%, with the main subsurface risks being the difficulty in determining closure volumes in this part of the SNS and the quality of the reservoir. We have valued Ithaca’s share of the Morpheus and Carna prospects (those that are to be drilled in 2008) but have attributed no value to additional prospects as these will likely only be drilled in the near term if Morpheus and/or Carna are successful. We do not believe that the market is currently giving Ithaca much credit for their SNS interests (risked or otherwise) but, on the 3rd April, Venture Production announced that it had acquired a number of assets from Tullow; these assets included Tullow’s share of Morpheus. The transaction, covering a number of undeveloped gas discoveries, implied a unit value of some S1.6/boe, and would value Ithaca’s share in the Morpheus and Carna prospects at some 24 cents per f.d. share. On a risked basis, we carry some 27 cents for these two assets, a value sufficiently close to the ‘mark-to-market’ value that we have retained it in our valuation.”

Mestres rates Ithaca a Top Pick because it has:



“1. Regular newsflow during 2008 with imminent milestones: the company is facing a series of appraisal and exploration projects in 2008 and is in exclusive negotiations on two other assets. We estimate that the 2008 exploration programme has the potential to deliver a further C$4.50/f.d. share if it is successful, of which up to C$3.70 (unrisked) are attributable to the success of the currently drilling Athena appraisal well;

2. A significant number of exploration opportunities to maintain post-2008 activity: we have based our 12-month target price on (amongst other things) the risked value of the 2008 exploration portfolio but there is a number of other exploration opportunities for the company to pursue in 2009 (e.g. Triton and Poseidon; the Zeus area; or the lower-depth Barbara area prospects). This is likely to maintain interest in the stock price;

3. Downside protection: The core commercial value (cash plus producing fields) plus the fields under development (Athena and Jacky) account for nearly 67% of the current share price and provide a degree of downside protection. The Polly discovery could represent a further 3% of the share price. Additional downside protection (and upside relative to our valuation) could arise if the company hedged at least some of its Beatrice area production.”

Valuation and Price Target



Mestres bases his valuation on a sum of the parts NAV approach that incorporates “a core commercial value (which we define as fields on stream and under development plus forecast 2007 FY net debt minus the company’s 2008 financial commitments) plus a DCF valuation of the risked exploration upside. This approach is sensitive to several key assumptions (i) the discount rate; (ii) the commodity price assumptions; and (iii) the risked value attributed to the exploration prospects. Discount Rate: we have used a discount rate of 10% to January 1,2008, reflecting our estimate of Ithaca’s cost of capital; Our oil price assumptions are US$89.1/bbl in 2008, US$85/bbl in 2009, US$75/bbl in 2010 and US$65/bbl in 2011 (inflated at 2.5% per annum thereafter). Our gas price assumption is US$10/mcf in 2008 inflated at 2.5% per annum thereafter. Our 2008 average oil price is taken from a production-weighted average of the actual 1Q 2008 WTI prices (US$97.9) and an assumed average US$88/bbl in 2Q-4Q 2008.

On a risked sum-of the parts basis we value Ithaca at C$3.57/share on a fully-diluted basis. This comprises a core commercial value of C$0.50/share plus risked exploration upside of C$3.07/share. At current prices, the stock has upside of some 45% to reach our NAV.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Buy, Sell or Hold Laramide Resources (LAM: TSX)

On April 4th/08 Dundee Securities analyst David Talbot provided an update on Laramide Resources (LAM: TSX)



Company Profile

Laramide is an exploration and development company with significant uranium resources, a solid project pipeline, strong management, and is striving to become a pure play uranium story. Its flagship Westmoreland project is located in Queensland Australia and hosts 48 million pounds of U3O8 in resources in three zones - Redtree, Junnagunna and Huarabagoo. A 2007 Scoping Study contemplates uranium production of ~3million pounds per year starting in 2011.

Event

In a note entitled “Environmental Redtree Drilling Providing Higher Grades Near Surface” Talbot explains the reasons behind his Buy rating and target price of C$10.40

Takeaways From The Event



Responding to an April 3rd/08 announcement from Laramide that reported results from five drill holes from its 100% owned Westmoreland project located in North West Queensland, Australia, Talbot writes “All five reported holes intersected mineralization that is on average significantly higher grade than current Redtree resource grades of just below 0.01% U3O8. Drilling was focused on the Garee Lens, one of four flat lying near surface lobes of sandstone mineralization that straddle the Redtree dyke. Based on section examination at site, we had estimated Garee Lens mineralization to average ~20 to 30m in thickness. Previous work also suggests that this lens exhibits higher grades than the surrounding lobes.”



Talbot goes on to say “Recent results suggest Laramide is currently drilling a localized area of thicker mineralization with higher grades. The company believes there is potential to define higher grade trends. Adding further pounds in these areas, combined with near surface proximity (low strip ratios) could likely aid in project economics. This is the first drill program carried out by LAM on the 48 million pound Westmoreland deposits. The program is proceeding on schedule and results are positive. LAM also appears to be moving its samples through the assay lab with some regularity, in contrast to many parts of the world. Political overtones aside, we believe that the stock will move on drill results and that investors will view these results favourably.”

Valuation and Price Target

After analyzing the results from the 5 drill holes, Talbot maintains his Buy recommendation. However, he adds “While these results are welcome news it does not impact our target price. However due to a recent decline in the market value of Laramide's investment portfolio, we are decreasing our 12-month share price target by $0.60 to C$10.40, based on our 2009E DCF model.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Monday, April 07, 2008

Sprott Asset Management Annual Financial Statements

Sprott Asset Management Annual Financial Statements



Click here to view a PDF of Sprott Asset Management’s Audited Annual Financial Statements as of December 31st, 2007 (Also posted on SEDAR.com)

Some Recent Financings Undertaken By Sprott Asset Management

Gastem (GMR: TSX-V) - April 3, 2008
Altai Resources (ATI: TSX-V) - April 2, 2008
Romarco Minerals (R: TSX-V) - April 2, 2008
Verena Minerals (VML: TSX-V) - March 20, 2008
Stroud Resources (SDR: TSX-V) - February 20, 2008
Dynasty Metals and Mining (DMM: TSX) - February 20, 2008
Noront Resources (NOT: TSX-V) - February 7, 2008
Inca Pacific Resources (IPR: TSX-V) - January 14, 2008

Company Update on Inca Pacific Resources (IPR: TSX-V)

On April 3rd /08 Haywood Securities analyst Stefan Ioannou provided an update on Inca Pacific Resources (IPR: TSX-V)



Company Profile

Inca Pacific is a resource exploration company with a focus on copper and molybdenum projects in Peru. Inca Pacific is developing the Magistral copper-molybdenum project located 450 Kms north-north west of Lima in the department of Ancash. To date, a total of 65,214 metres of core drilling (286 holes) has been completed as well as a series of geotechnical studies, metallurgical testing, mine layout and open pit design, tailings studies, environmental base line studies, and socio-economic studies. As of December 2007 a final feasibility study has been completed.

According to a January 14, 2008 news release on Inca Pacific’s website (http://www.incapacific.com/) Sprott Asset Management owned approximately 49.47% of the issued and outstanding shares of Inca Pacific on a non-diluted basis.

Click here for previous coverage of Inca Pacific from Feb 21, 2008

Event

In a note entitled “Environmental and Social Impact Assessment Submitted” Ioannou explains the reasons behind his Sector Outperform rating and target price of $4.00

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to an April 2nd/08 announcement from Inca Pacific that reported that the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) for the Magistral Copper-Molybdenum Project located in Ancash, Peru was submitted to the Peruvian Ministry of Energy and Mines, Ioannou writes “Inca Pacific’s ESIA submission, completed on schedule, marks the achievement of another formal milestone at Magistral. On March 28, Inca Pacific submitted an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) to the Peruvian Ministry of Energy and Mines for its 100% owned Magistral copper-molybdenum project. Simultaneously, the ESIA was presented to local communities in the vicinity of the Magistral Project. Several periods of review, public consultation, commentary, and response will follow. Inca Pacific recently met with members of several government agencies who agreed to support the Company’s request for an expedited approval of the EISA, which Inca Pacific estimates will take approximately 9 months. The ESIA is the primary document provided to the Ministry of Energy and Mines for evaluation and permitting. The ESIA has been designed to satisfy the requirements of Peruvian legislation and to comply with internationally accepted guidelines for social and environmental protection, such as the Equator Principles, followed by such organizations as the World Bank.”

Ioannou believes that “With a feasibility study complete and ESIA submitted, Inca Pacific can turn its attention to timely permitting and project financing, expected through Q4/08—setting the stage for construction start-up anticipated in Q1/09 and production start-up targeted in Q1/11. We believe that Inca Pacific’s attraction as an acquisition target will increase as each of these milestones is achieved.”

Catalysts include the initiation of project financing in Q2/08, receiving permits and ESIA approval in Q4/08, completion of project financing in Q4/08, start-up of construction in Q1/09 and finally start-up of production in Q1/11.

Valuation and Price Target

Ioannou bases his $4.00/sh target price on a “1.0x multiple to a fully financed after-tax corporate NAV10% of $4.04 per fully diluted share at long-term copper and molybdenum prices of US$2.00 per pound and US$15.00 per pound respectively. Inca Pacific’s peer group currently trades at 0.8x corporate NAV. A change of US$0.25 per pound to our forecast copper price alters our implied target price by about $0.40 per share or 10%. Similarly, a change of US$1.00 per pound to our forecast molybdenum price alters our implied target price by about $0.15 per share or 4%.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Sunday, April 06, 2008

Company Update on Banro Corporation (BAA: TSX)

On April 2nd /08 Haywood Securities analyst Eric Zaunscherb provided an update on Banro Corp.(BAA: TSX)



Click here to view previous coverage of Banro Corp. (BAA: TSX) from January 16, 2008

Company Profile

Banro is a Canadian-based gold exploration company with four wholly-owned properties along a major gold belt of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Company has to date identified 4.81 million ounces of Measured and Indicated Resources, plus Inferred Resources of 6.98 million ounces. Work is ongoing to extend Banro's total resource base, with pre-feasibility studies currently underway.

Event

In a note entitled “Banro Provides Positive Drilling Update at Twangiza Project, DRC” Zaunscherb explains the reasons behind his Sector Outperform rating and target price of $20.00

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to an April 2nd/08 news release where Banro announced further results from the Company's ongoing pre-feasibility, core drilling program at its wholly-owned Twangiza project, Zaunscherb writes “Banro has provided drill results for 58 diamond drill holes on the wholly-owned Twangiza project, South Kivu Province, DRC. Results are in-line with previous results and continue to demonstrate continuity, growth and likely conversion from inferred to indicated categories for the Twangiza Main and newly-discovered Twangiza North deposits. Highlights include: Hole TDD189 which cut 108.50 metres grading 2.42 grams per tonne gold from surface and Hole TDD150 which cut 30.89 metres grading 7.22 grams per tonne beginning 49.49 metres down-hole. The current Twangiza drill program will feed a resource update which in turn will feed the prefeasibility study expected in June 2008. In order to meet its target, management has increased the number of drills active on the property to six. Management advises that it is also on-track for delivery of the Namoya project prefeasibility in June 2008.”

Zaunscherb also writes that “In January 2008 Banro reported an updated resource including 14.51 million tonnes measured grading 2.82 grams per tonne (1.315 million ounces), 39.12 million tonnes indicated grading 2.03 grams per tonne (2.558 million ounces) and 46.19 million tonnes inferred grading 1.82 grams per tonne (2.705 million ounces). We are confident the recent drilling has added significantly to these resources and upgraded a significant portion to the measured and indicated categories. Further, many of the recent drilling is from the Twangiza North zone with a higher portion of higher recovery mineralization.”

Catalysts include “delivery of the Twangiza and Namoya prefeasibility studies in June 2008, ongoing exploration results from the Twangiza, Lagushwa and Kamituga projects, and the completion of the DRC’s mining contract review process.”

Valuation and Price Target

Regarding valuation Zaunscherb writes “Banro is trading at 0.5x our project NAVPS estimate of $16.06, a significant discount to the peer average of 0.8x. The NAV estimate is driven by DCF analyses of Twangiza and Namoya discounted at 8%. This discount relative to peers is directly attributable to DRC sovereign risk which we believe is overdone and subject to re-rating as the Country’s mining contract issues are resolved. We apply a 1.2x P/NAV multiple to generate our $20.00 price which generates a 138% projected return. Banro is trading at an enterprise value of $25 per ounce as compared to a peer average of $41 per ounce.”

Lastly, he adds “We continue to be bullish on the prospects for gold near term. We believe that the recent gold price pull back has provided a stellar buying opportunity for quality gold development companies in general, and specifically, Banro.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Saturday, April 05, 2008

Private Placement - Cantrell Capital (CLJ.H: TSX-V)

Company Profile

There is currently no official website or relevant information available about Cantrell Capital Corp. as it is most likely a ‘Shell’ company.

What is a ‘Shell’ company?

In general, a shell company is a company that exists but does not actually do any business or have any assets. A listed shell company must have had an active business in the past, or it could not have met the requirements for a listing.
A cash shell is a shell company with a bit of cash or investments added. Listed shells are often involved in reverse takeovers. A reverse takeover is a transaction whereby a company’s shareholders may gain control of another (private or listed) company by merging it in with their company. A reverse takeover will almost always take place by way of a pure equity acquisition, also called a share swap.



Event

On April 4, 2008 Cantrell Capital Corp. (CLJ.H: TSX-V) announced “that Radcliffe Foundation and Fiore Capital Corporation, two entities now controlled by Frank Giustra with respect to investment decisions, hold a combined 9,900,000 common shares of the Company, representing approximately 21.1% of the outstanding shares of the Company. As previously disclosed, Radcliffe Foundation also owns 3,950,000 common share purchase warrants and 2,000,000 options exercisable into common shares of the Company. Assuming the exercise of all of their warrants and options, the parties would own a total of 15,850,000 common shares, which would represent approximately 30.0% of the outstanding shares of the Company. The securities were acquired for investment purposes. While they do not intend to acquire further securities of the Company, they may in the future acquire or dispose of securities of the Company, through the market or otherwise, as circumstances or market conditions warrant. (Link to news release)

Additionally on March 20, 2008, Cantrell Capital Corp. (CLJ.H: TSX-V) announced that “The Company has also been advised that Evanachan Limited acquired, by way of private agreement, ownership and control over 14,000,000 common shares of the Company and common share purchase warrants of the Company entitling the holder to acquire 14,000,000 additional common shares of the Company. As such, Evanachan has ownership and control over 14,000,000 common shares, representing 29.89% of the issued and outstanding shares of the Company, and warrants entitling it to acquire a further 14,000,000 common shares of the Company. Assuming exercise of the warrants, this represents approximately 46.02% of the partially diluted issued and outstanding shares of the Company. (Link to news release)

About Frank Giusta, the Radcliffe Foundation and Fiore Capital Corporation

Frank Giustra, as President and CEO of Fiore Financial, brings invaluable global investment experience and relationships to Endeavour Financial. Endeavour Financial is an independent investment banking firm focused on the natural resources industry. Endeavour Financial is the Advisory Services division of Endeavour Mining Capital Corp., an integrated merchant banking company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange - symbol EDV.

As President and later Chairman and CEO of Yorkton Securities in the 1990s, Frank spearheaded equity investments of more than $3 billion in the international resource sector. Subsequently, he founded Lions Gate Entertainment, now one of the world's largest independent film companies. Recognizing the growing need for merchant banking services in the mining and minerals industries, Mr. Giustra joined Endeavour Financial as Chairman from 2001 to 2007. His vision and leadership led to the launch of numerous successful resource companies, including Wheaton River Minerals and UrAsia Energy.

Mr. Giustra is a member of the board of trustees of the William J. Clinton Foundation and the International Crisis Group and a director of the Radcliffe Foundation. In June 2007 Frank Giustra and Former President Bill Clinton launched the Clinton Giustra Sustainable Growth Initiative (CGSGI). The CGSGI will focus on alleviating poverty in the developing world in partnership with the global mining community.

Recently, Peak Gold (PIK: TSX-V), a gold producing company Mr. Giustra was involved with announced a three way merger with Metallica Resources Inc. (MR: TSX) and New Gold Inc. (NGD: TSX). The merger would result in a $1.6 billion mid-tier gold producer that is expected to produce 297,000 ounces of gold this year and 335,000 ounces in 2009 from operations in Australia, Brazil and Mexico. Peak Gold was formed last spring by Ian Telfer, chair of Goldcorp Inc. and Uranium One Inc., and Giustra. While the three-way merger marks the exit of Giustra, the merger foretells of Mr. Giustra’s ability to do mega deals in the resource sector.

Could Cantrell Capital be the next Peak Gold?

About Evanachan Limited

Evanachan Limited, is a private company wholly-owned by Robert R. McEwen, former Chairman and CEO of Goldcorp Inc. and presently Chairman and CEO of US Gold Corporation and Lexam Explorations Inc. Some of Evanachan Limited’s previous investments include Rubicon Minerals Corp. and Lexam Explorations Inc.

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Buy, Sell or Hold Aurizon Mines (ARZ: TSX)

On April 3rd /08 Wellington West Capital analyst Catherine Gignac provided an update on Aurizon Mines Ltd. (ARZ: TSX)



Company Profile

Aurizon Mines is a new junior gold producer with the underground Casa Berardi mine in NW Quebec. At year-end 2006, 1.2 million oz were in the mine plan with extensions to the mine life anticipated. Exploration is also underway in and around the mine with junior partner Lakeshore Gold (LSG-T), plus at Aurizon’s two million ounce Joanna project, also in Quebec.

Click here to watch a BNN interview with David Hall, CEO of Aurizon on March 6, 2008

Event

In a note entitled “Reserve and Resource Update; Planned 2008 Exploration Programs to Target Expansions” Gignac explains the reasons behind her Buy rating and target price of $6.00.

Takeaways From The Event

In outlining her investment thesis for Aurizon Mines, Gignac writes that Aurizon is a “New Quebec gold producer with active exploration programs. Developing underground targets at the new 165,000 oz/year Casa Beradi mine plus potential feed from the junior explorer’s activities on the surrounding property should ensure a long mine life. An active surface drilling program is also in progress at the Joanna deposit, in the Rouyn-Noranda mining camp, where two million ounces have been outlined to-date.”



Responding to an April 1st/08 news release where Aurizon announced mineral reserves and resources estimates as at December 31, 2007 for its Casa Berardi and Joanna projects, Gignac writes “Proven and Probable reserves at the Casa Berardi mine were estimated at 3.1 million tonnes averaging 9.2 g/t for 918,000 oz. gold, a gain of 21% in grade and 251,000 oz. depletion over 2006. For all of Aurizon’s properties, Measured and indicated resources decreased to 1.3 million oz. (15 million tonnes grading 2.7 g/t gold), and Inferred resources increased to 2.6 million oz. (34 million tons grading 2.3 g/t gold), including the addition of Zone 123-S. The reported reserves and resources update only the Casa Beradi portion of our model, as the Joanna project resources were reported in September 2007. The resource update for the Lower Inter Zone at Casa Beradi in August excluded the reserve increase just announced, raising the average grade 56% to 9.5 g/t from 6.1 g/t gold. The increase in reserves due to resource conversion (99,000 oz. gold), was offset by mining production (191,000 oz. gold), changes in the projected recoveries (58,000 oz. gold) and mining costs due to an adjustment to the cut-off grade (100,000 oz. gold). The net asset value estimate decreases by 4% or $0.22 per share to $5.24 per share (from $5.46 per share).”

Valuation and Price Target

Gignac recommends Aurizon as a buy because “Based on a 3% discount rate, the
Casa Beradi mine model was adjusted to a steadier annual production rate, returning a net present value of $362 million or $2.47 per share. Resources beyond our ten-year model are valued at $125/oz or $1.12 per share. A similar multiple is applied to the 2.0 million ounces in gold mineralization identified at the Joanna project, valued at $1.74/share. Adjusting for net working capital, the net asset value is $5.24 per share – approximately 68% of the value from Casa Beradi and 33% from Joanna. Applying market multiples of 1.1x-1.25x, similar to peers, results in a target trading range of $5.75-$6.55 per share.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Friday, April 04, 2008

Company Update on Eastmain Resources (ER: TSX)

On April 3rd /08 Laurentian Bank Securities analyst Eric Lemieux provided an update on Eastmain Resources (ER: TSX).



Click here to view a summary of Lemieux’s initiation report on Eastmain Resources (ER: TSX)

Company Profile

Eastmain Resources Inc. (ER) engages in exploration and development of gold, silver, copper, nickel, and zinc deposits in Canada. ER is a strong explorer focused on the Eastmain River area of James Bay. The company is actively exploring for gold and base metal deposits within the Opinaca / La Grande sub provinces. It owns 100% of the Eau Claire gold deposit (Clearwater Project), 100% of the Eastmain gold deposit and has significant land holdings covering key geology adjacent to the Eleonore discovery.

Event

In a note entitled “Eastmain Resources: Hunting For Gold” Lemieux explains the reasons behind his Speculative Buy rating and target price of $1.60.

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to an April 2nd/-8 news release where Eastmain announced results for infill drilling on the Clearwater projects, Lemieux writes “Though initial results on the in-filling drill program of December 2007 (51 HQ size drill holes) are spectacular for the 450 West Zone at Eau Claire, we view that this type of drilling program at 15 meter intervals will permit to define a measured mineral resource. This should advance the project in a systematic and industry standard manner. Drill results for 23 holes (ER07-62 to ER07-85) confirm continuity of the multiple gold-bearing veins and suggest that the gold grade increases with the density of drilling. We expect similar results for the other approximately 25 holes in this zone and consider that there is potential to increase the resources both in total gold content and confidence. Planned 2008 drilling for the southeastern extensions (veins B, C, D, F, G and H) bodes well to increase total resources and advance the project initially as an open-pit scenario.”

With regards to the Eleonore South Project, Lemieux remarks “The property is just south of the Eleonore discovery and in strike with favourable lithology. An approximate 3,250 m (16 holes) drilling program is currently underway. With several geochemical anomalies and surface mineralization up to 3m @ 10.5 g/t Au on the JT Target area, prime drilling targets will be tested at depth and we expect interesting results. Goldcorp, having exercised its right to increase its interest by 6.67% to a total of 40%, will fund the drill program. Eastmain is the operator. We view this association as very positive.”

Click Here to watch a BNN video interview with Eastmain CEO Donald Robinson on March 19th, 2008

Valuation and Price Target

Lemieux increases his target price from $1.50/sh to $1.60/sh because his “confidence in the nature of the exploration results on ER projects has increased.” He also believes that “an open-pit scenario for the Eau Claire deposit on the Clearwater project is being confirmed.”

Investment Risks

Without limitations, some of the risks include reserves and resource risk, development risks, permitting risks, off-take agreements, commodity price risks, geo-political risks, exchange rates, weather related impacts etc.

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Buy, Sell or Hold Axmin Inc. (AXM: TSX-V)

On April 3rd /08 Canaccord Adams analyst Nicholas Campbell provided an update on Axmin Inc. (AXM: TSX-V)



Company Profile

AXMIN is focused on mineral exploration and development in West Africa. The company's primary asset is the Passendro Gold project, within the Bambari-Bakala permit, with current resources defined at 2.8 million ounces of Au. Axmin is also exploration the Kofi (Mali) and Nimini Hills (Sierra Leone) projects, which host a combined resource of roughly 1.1 million ounces of Au.

Event

In a note entitled “FEASIBILITY AT PASSENDRO IS A MAJOR MILESTONE, TARGET REDUCED ON HIGHER COSTS” Campbell explains the reasons behind his Speculative Buy rating and target price of C$1.30

Takeaways From The Event

Responding to an April 2nd/08 announcement from Axmin reporting the results of the Bankable Feasibility Study for its Passendro Gold Project in the Central African Republic, Campbell writes “The feasibility study for the Passendro project is a major milestone for Axmin and the economics of the project remain robust. Using a US$750 per ounce gold price, the study outlines a 203,000 ounce per year gold operation a 5% NPV of US$164 million and a 29.4% IRR. Capex for the project is estimated at US$196 million and total cash costs are estimated at US$379 per ounce. While the capex was modestly above our previous forecast, operating costs are substantially higher than expected. The increase in costs is slightly offset by higher gold recoveries (94% up from 88%) and higher production levels; however, the net effect is a reduction in our estimate of net asset value for Axmin.”

Digging deeper into the announcement, Campbell opines “To us, the figure that stands out the most in the 2008 feasibility study is the estimate of total cash costs. At an average of US$379 per ounce, the total cash cost forecast for the Passendro project is up more than 100% since the 2006 prefeasibility study. In our last valuation, we had factored in a 55% operating cost escalation, which, in light of the feasibility study results, was woefully inadequate. While the capex is up 78%, this is largely in line with our expectations (we previously factored in a 63% capital cost escalation). Costs at Passendro are up significantly, but what is more important is that the project economics of the Passendro project remains robust. Using a US$750/oz gold price, the project has a projected IRR of 29.6% and a 5% discounted NPV of US$164 million. With industry average total cash costs rising into the mid-US$400 per ounce range, Passendro remains an attractive project even with the significant cost escalation. The first three years of operation at Passendro are expected to average 223,000 ounces of gold production per year at an average total cash cost of US$343 per ounce.
Passendro has estimated gold reserves of 1,276,597 ounces. An additional 0.5 million ounces of measured and indicated resources and one million ounces of inferred gold resources have been excluded from the mine plan. At an annual throughput rate of three million tonnes of ore, these resources represent a potential mine life extension of more than seven years. In our model of Passendro, we factor in a seven year mine life, which represents roughly 83% of the total measured and indicated gold resources. Based on Axmin’s development schedule of 24 months, the company expects to commission the project in the third quarter of 2010. This schedule is based on receiving approval of the ESIA for the project, the receipt of a mining permit from the government of the CAR and securing project debt and equity financing by Q3/08. In our model, we assume that the mine is commissioned in early 2011.”

Project debt financing fo