According to energy analyst, Kurt Wulff of Mcdep LLC, current global energy demand is about 240 million barrels equivalent daily (mmbd). In terms of estimating future global energy demand, Wulff finds that extending past trends would indicate an increase in oil equivalent demand of 70 million barrels over the next 15 years. Lastly, Wulff adds that approximately 80% of the aforementioned growth in demand is expected to arise from emerging countries.
Energy Supply
In analyzing the supply side of the equation, Wulff is of the opinion that extending past trends would suggest that coal would contribute the largest increment, 25 mmbd of new supply. However, he says that from an environmental standpoint this will not be allowed to happen (as a result of increasingly stringent restrictions of of microsmoke, sulfur dioxide, mercury, other pollutants and perhaps carbon dioxide) and this is likely to slow the growth of coal.
Wulff pegs our current oil consumption at 86 mmbd and opines that we have “reached the limits for cheap oil. Expensive oil is available, but it takes too much time and political will to achieve projected levels.”
Turning to nuclear, which currently accounts for 14 mmbd, Wulff doesn’t believe that nuclear can meaningfully contribute to global energy demand at a rapid enough pace due to “long lead time(s), extreme capital costs, thermal and radioactive waste.”
Wulff, like Boone Pickens, believes that natural gas offers the most promising and likely answer to global energy problems. Wulff says of natural gas, which currently accounts for 57mmbd globally, just after oil and coal, is already a large supply source and well‐known.
Regardless, of the energy source, Wulff opines that “There is no shortage of energy supply. All it takes is money and time, lots of both.”
Wulff’s projects “Light, Sweet crude oil for immediate delivery at an average $88 next year, 2009, down from $107 in 2008.” After 2009, he sees a rebound in prices and projects an uptrend to “perhaps $125 in 2010.” Post 2010, Wulff sees the potential for oil to continue rising but remainig well below a 1980‐type peak.
Source: http://www.mcdep.com/index.htm
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