With regards to Crude Oil, Ralph Glass, AJM’s Vice President of Operations says:
“… AJM’s October 31, 2008 forecast now predicts that the WTI price for the balance of 2008 will be around the $75.00/bbl mark, rising to $85.00/bbl for 2009. It is anticipated that the crude oil price will continue to recover, reaching the $100/bbl range by 2013. The impact on the Canadian Edmonton par price is less than the US prices as we have seen the Canadian dollar drop in relation to the American dollar. AJM’s revised exchange rate forecast sees the Canadian dollar at 0.80 for the balance of 2008, rising in 2009 to 0.85 and reaching 0.95 by 2011.”
With regards to NYMEX and AECO Natural Gas, Glass opines:
“… The revised AJM October 31, 2008 forecast actually sees only marginal changes from our September forecast on the natural gas front, with the NYMEX price dropping $0.50/Mcf to $7.50/Mcf for the balance of 2008. For 2009 the estimated price is $8.10/Mcf and for 2010 the price is $8.60/Mcf. We anticipate that the NYMEX price will return to the levels predicted in our September 30, 2008 forecast by 2013 when it will reach $9.50/Mcf.
… The AECO price should see no change for the balance of 2008, but will drop $0.50/Mcf in 2009 to $8.20/Mcf and then increase to $8.60/Mcf. AJM anticipates the long-term forecast for AECO natural gas will remain where we had predicted in our September 30, 2008 forecast, holding steady at $9.00/Mcf from 2012 onward.”
AJM says that their forecasts are based on data collected from various government agencies, industry publications, Canadian oil refineries, natural gas marketers and industry trends. They also take into account inflation forecasts and exchange rates.
Source: AJM Petroleum Consultants
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